Murrination Insights

As of today, Andy Burnham is on course to become the next Prime Minister after securing the backing of the majority of Labour's 403 MPs, leaving too few remaining MPs for any rival…

In our Murrination Trump 4; MAGA's Migration to The Dictatorship Of Emperor Trump, we highlighted the similarities but not the extreme degree of destructive policies and actions…

Global Forecaster has long maintained that Farage is both the party's greatest strength and its greatest weakness. On the one hand, he remains the most…

This is a Murrination that everyone should read. It is a continuation of and ever louder volume of the numerous Murrinations warning of building national…

In our Murrination The Battle for Ukraine 59; Strategic Bombing Campaigns, we outlined in our Platinum Prediction series—and have continued to monitor closely—the strategic bombing…

History offers few examples of major powers that survived while facing a mounting strategic threat and remaining publicly in denial about how to respond.  The wars in Eastern Europe…

Contrarianism is founded on the observation that the majority is often most confident at precisely the point where a trend is nearing exhaustion. In financial…

Ten years ago, on 23 June 2016, the referendum on whether the United Kingdom should remain in or leave the European Union was held. The result was:

Trump stated 39 times during the 106 days of war that the deal was close. He cried wolf so often that officials and experts alike became so sceptical that most chose to ignore his…

The three recent ground-breaking UAP disclosures, released through US government transparency initiatives from the Department of War(DOW), are part of a powerful Congressional…

Today Britain faces the worst maritime threat it has faced for decades. From the blatant acts of hostility of Putin's Northern fleet, as we outlined in 

In modern British English, the word nous is used colloquially to describe practical intelligence, common sense, sound judgement and the ability to understand situations…

We are in the age dominated by China’s new hypersonic missile technology, embedded in an access area denial strategy that is overturning the old American carrier and global basing…

This Murrination follows on from  WW3 106; The Battle For Ukraine 92; Russian Exhaustion, Desperation and Retreat, which has correctly predicted the pendulum swing in…

This Murrination introduces the Spitfire Fund, whose origins lie in the work of Global Forecaster and our long-standing assessment that the Western…

The symbolism of Trump’s recent visit to China vividly captured this accelerated American decline. Rather than projecting dominance, Trump appeared diminished and strategically…

Britain is entering a dangerous political and financial moment in which the bond market may become the decisive force shaping Starmer’s future. The gilt market is already under…

When Trump travels to Beijing to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, he will do so as Xi’s most useful Idiot American—because in all probability Xi views Trump as a model of…

Yesterday, Iran threatened to restart uranium enrichment. But that raises a key question: after the apparent destruction of its visible nuclear facilities, where would that…

In our numerous analyses on Iran, we have consistently argued that the Islamic Republic was established with the goal of confronting and destroying both the “Small” and the “Great…

What Trump appears not to have fully appreciated is that time is working against him. In the presence of a sustained blockade, the resulting supply shock compounds over time,…

Last week, I had the privilege of visiting Ukraine and seeing its remarkable people first-hand and witnessing how they were adapting to being a country at war; meeting numerous…

Since 2017, the world has been moving through what many describe as a “soft disclosure” phase on UAPs; beginning with the public release of Navy encounter footage, followed by formal…

We live our lives governed by time; deadlines, schedules, ageing and memory all reinforce the belief that time is real and constantly moving forward. But physics increasingly…

The Trump administration has sought to weaponise energy dominance as a geopolitical lever against China by attempting to control global…

The world, as rational citizens of the Western order once understood it, now appears increasingly distorted by the erratic and self-reinforcing worldview of Donald Trump. His…

In the aftermath of COVID-19, the world has largely moved on without fully confronting the unresolved questions surrounding the pandemic’s origins and strategic consequences. While…

This recent operation is the manifestation of the Labour…

In our previous Murrination in this series, we outlined how Britain once possessed the world’s most powerful navy. Today, however, the country faces the stark reality of being all…

While the FPV drone revolution has largely remained confined to the battlefields of Ukraine and has yet to transform the NATO way of war, a new and even greater military…

The prospect of Trump withdrawing from the war with Iran while leaving the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control would represent a profound strategic rupture with far reaching…

Revolutions in Military Affairs (RMAs) have historically reshaped not just how wars are fought, but the broader…

I have recently been undertaking a more detailed study of Japanese history, which is why I was particularly interested to visit the British Museum’s exhibition on the samurai. The…

The relationship between hubris and military defeat is as old as warfare itself. In The Art of War, Sun Tzu warned that victory depends on understanding both oneself and the enemy: “…

In this final part of our four part series, we examine how cyclical historians evolved from interpreters of the past into practitioners of strategic foresight, in a new discipline…

The forgotten power of sea mines, which are among the most strategically powerful weapons in naval warfare, has been brought to the fore with the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.…

The traditional classical Newtonian worldview treated reality as local, deterministic, and linear, with the human mind understood as little more than a by-product of neural…

Interview Summary: David Murrin — The State of the World
Podcast Date: The Sare of It, March 6 2026 

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The ancient Chinese strategist Sun Tzu emphasised that true success in warfare depends on deeply understanding one’s enemy—their motives, beliefs, strengths and limitations—famously…

The Franco-Prussian War of 1870 was not an accident of history but the predictable outcome of a long, systemic shift in power that Europe’s established continental hegemon, France,…

War is upon Britain once more and we as a nation and our services must throw off the yoke of peace. Our forces are totally unprepared in terms of equipment and mindset and dramatic…

Fibonacci geometry appears repeatedly across natural systems, from the spiral phyllotaxis of sunflowers and pinecones to the logarithmic structure of hurricanes, galaxies, and…

A combined-arms operation to control the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz will inevitably be a very large scale, sustained campaign involving naval, air and ground forces operating in…

Einstein famously observed that doing the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result is the definition of stupidity and insanity; a warning that seems relevant…

The fifth stage of empire is defined by internal value corrosion that ultimately exposes the system to external defeat. It is a phase in which narcissism and greed supplant service…

As the Global Forecaster has warned for over two decades based on our analysis of hegemonic war cycles, this decade is now witnessing the doom of our time, the struggle between…

There is now a fully developed regional war raging in the Middle East and escalating in front of our eyes. Understanding its roots, its drivers and the…

This month, at the four-year mark, we must remember the personal cost of those at war who have been devastating Ukraine at the behest of two monsters: Putin and Xi. This war should…

Over the past few days, British sovereign territory has been attacked by Iran and remains under threat. Starmer’s response was laboriously slow and confused. The drone that hit the…

Since the morning of 28 February 2026, we have been witnessing the eruption of a full scale regional war, with Iran at its epicentre. The American–Israeli precision air campaign…

Since the morning of 28 February 2026, we have been witnessing the eruption of a full-scale regional war, with Iran at its epicentre. The American–Israeli precision air campaign…

For decades, Iran has prioritised the development of a large and increasingly sophisticated missile arsenal as the central pillar of its military strategy. Lacking the ability to…

With the ongoing full scale regional war in the Middle East and the ongoing war in Ukraine, Starmer and Labour should be reaching for the emergency rearmament programme. Finally,…

Across history, a distinct group of scholars and philosophers have devoted itself to understanding why empires rise, flourish, overextend and ultimately collapse. They have been…

I commend to you this excellent briefing by Chris Mellon, a highly respected former senior U.S. intelligence officer and a member…

In the war in Ukraine, we are witnessing the tactical consequences of a fully sensor-transparent battlefield, where almost every movement and action can be detected, tracked and…

Starmer’s attempts to hand over the Chagos Islands are, GF argues, effectively aligned with Chinese interests, with Britain’s National Security Adviser, Jonathan Powell, appearing to…

The terminators are comming! While the majority of the world’s armed forces are still struggling to catch up with the lessons emerging from the war in Ukraine—particularly in…

We have long argued that the onset of World War III effectively began in 2022 with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, undertaken with Xi Jinping’s full support. Nearly four years later,…

The Renaissance took place roughly between the 14th and 17th centuries (c. 1300–1600 CE), though its exact timing varied by region. It began in Italy, particularly in cities such as…

What if we are not alone even within our own bodies? What if many of the everyday impulses that drive our behaviour—cravings, mood swings, energy crashes and even some destructive…

The defining struggle of our age is not being fought primarily with tanks, missiles, or even cyber weapons, but within the immune systems of our decaying Western societies…

In Breaking the Code of History, written more than two decades ago, I warned that climate change would prove far more unstable and consequential than was then assumed. One of its…

This Murrination series examines how human civilisations have historically understood their own rise and fall, tracing the evolution of thought from retrospective observation to the…

While Thucydides famously described the trap, he did not explicitly identify the mechanism of compression that caused it to snap shut. As Athenian power grew to challenge Spartan…

Russia’s penetration of Western political leadership is not an aberration of the post Cold War era but the logical…

The UK Government has rejected the parliamentary defence committee’s call for a second, sovereign UK nuclear delivery system alongside Trident—one designed to deter tactical nuclear…

The battle for Ukraine has assumed a level of immobility reminiscent of the Western Front between 1915 and 1918. In Lions Led By Lions, I described how the British Expeditionary…

Tomahawk cruise missiles have been a cornerstone of U.S. strike capability for decades. They are widely regarded as the best in breed, costing roughly $2.1 million each, ensuring…

The history of Soviet ideological subversion is not a relic of the Cold War; it is the intellectual and operational foundation of the cognitive warfare being waged against the West…

The Trump administration's newly released National Defence Strategy (NDS) represents a sharp and deliberate break from nearly eight decades of American defence policy. Framed as a…

For nearly two centuries, global order rested on the assumption that the seas were controlled so completely by one dominant maritime power that the…