Now or Never

YOUR COUNTRY NEEDS YOU……NOW! WE NEED YOUR SIGNATURE ON OUR URGENT PETITION

In response to the clear threat of war, please join our call to arms by taking the time to read this report, commending it to your friends and colleagues, and then signing the Parliamentary petition to express your concern for members of the armed forces and Britain's security and safety:

“Now Or Never: This Government is Failing to Secure the Defence of the Realm”

This is Britain's ‘now or never’ moment to secure its shores. We are in the early phases of a kinetic WW3 against the Axis of Autocracy. Our only response can be to urgently deploy a full-spectrum deterrent in 2025, spending £100bn in a lump capital sum, then per year and 5% of GDP annually.

This is Britain's last chance to secure its shores, as WW3 looms large against the Axis of Autocracy. We must learn from the sacrifices of previous generations and invest in our defence to avoid war. We can never allow the snatch Land Rover debacle to be repeated that needlessly cost the lives of our servicemen! We owe it to our armed forces to ensure they are equipped with the best, most lethal war-fighting equipment that maximises their chances of survival and The nation's success.

Click this link to sign the petition:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/709875/sponsors/new?token=b9gGHc9iSFuCs4vf6DTn

Thank you for your support in this critical national endeavour.

David Murrin

1.0 - Now or never

The world is at its most perilous point since WWII and Great Britain is woefully unprepared for what is to come. Britain needs to be defended and the 198,880 servicemen and women and their families need to be equipped with the best and most lethal equipment that ensures their success and survival. We must never allow another snatch land Rover debacle.

In 2020, Global Forecaster published Now or Never, our second Strategic Defence Review. Its origins date back to the disastrous government review of 2015, where it was clear that both our political and military leaders had lost their way following years of cost-cutting and ignorance of rising threats. The combination of a body politic with almost zero military experience and strategic vision combined with a highly politicised military leadership has proven disastrous for the nation's security. We forcefully argued that Britain desperately needed to shift its mindset from cost-cutting to rearmament as a last chance to deter conflict with Russia and China from 2022 onwards. The review got to the desk of Boris Johnson, who used the catchphrase "now or never" in the House of Commons, but momentary bluster was followed by continued military cuts, which were further accelerated under Rishi Sunak and now Sir Keir Starmer.

There are now as many civil servants in the Ministry of Defence as there are combat soldiers in the Army. Our armed forces have continued to shrink, with that army half the size that it was in 1991.

Purchase a hard copy or click on the link below and sign up for free to download a copy: now_or_never_global_forecaster_uk_strategic_defence_review_2020.pdf (3.52 MB).

Other reading: Breaking the Code of History | David Murrin.

Developing an effective defence capability is not like buying an annual insurance policy. Rather, it is cumulative. Britain has enjoyed a post-Cold War peace dividend for two decades, leaving its armed forces in disarray. To correct this disastrous policy, we must first spend 5% of GDP on capital investment to compensate for a decade of low expenditure. Second, we must raise defence spending to levels commensurate to the threat that we face, which, based on past threats, is between 5-8%. Thirdly, we must do this now, not in the future, as our enemies are waging war on us today. (1)

2.0 - Global Forecaster's warning of WW3

In Now or Never, we wrote that we have all experienced or observed the behaviour of bullies. All bullies are predators and, as such, will exploit any weakness but avoid the strong, who might defend themselves and inflict harm upon them in return. In the geopolitical world, words and jibes equate to cyber-attacks, manipulation of social media, and physical intimidation and attacks to open warfare.

Putin is a classic bully. Whilst Russia is not overtly expansive due to its negative demographics, Putin is aggressive and opportunistic. As such, British and Western weakness will be punished at a moment of friction unless we raise our awareness and strengthen our defences.
Xi and China, however, are super-bullies: strong, fast, increasingly powerful, and patient, who will take on even the strongest nations in time and seek total global domination. Only maximised national strength coupled with strong alliances will be able to stand up to this super-bully. Thus, Britain faced a critical moment in its decision-making process - a now or never moment.

3.0 - WW3 started in 2022

Our warnings were ignored, and the chance to show that Britain could demonstrate a national intention to defend ourselves and the values of democracy was missed. Such an intention could well have deterred Putin from his invasion, but instead, he met with weakness; he started a war costing hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian lives. It was a move that triggered the onset of WW3, as we had predicted, and it quickly saw significant covert NATO combat support. But simultaneously, whilst we in the UK have led the NATO charge in supporting Ukraine (which has made us Putin's number one target), we have continued to emasculate our armed forces with ongoing defence cuts; a signal of such irresponsible and war-blind weakness that means that the predatory Putin will only be encouraged into greater levels of aggression. Indeed, Putin is now directly targeting British factories and sub-sea cables in open acts of war, and yet the British government continues to slumber. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has coalesced the Axis of Autocracy around its strongest and central aggressor, China, who has permitted its puppet ally, North Korea, to join the war against Ukraine. Iran has been waging war against Israel and, via its proxy, the Houthis, against America and Britain, whose warships remain in a state of war in trying but failing to keep the Red Sea open. This means that Britain is involved in two very significant regional wars, and escalation to a full-blown WW3 seems now all but inevitable. (2)

4.0 - We were not ready for WW1 and WW2

Britain was poorly prepared at the start of both world wars, and as a result, it took three years of great suffering and defeats in both wars before the tide started to turn in our favour. The obvious lesson was that we should never be caught unprepared again. Yet, even in the last two decades, Britain has sent armies into Iraq and Afghanistan without the correct equipment to protect against IEDs. It would be both appropriate and reassuring to see some degree of remorse from past politicians and a determination from our current leadership not to repeat such mistakes.

5.0 - Britain is not ready for WW3

In 1945, Britain had many armaments factories, outstanding aircraft manufacturers, and many shipyards. Today, we have almost no industrial, military complex to allow us to rearm. While the world is catching fire, Sir Keir Starmer continues demonstrating why prime ministers should never be linear thinkers, plumbing new depths in political linear incompetence below dour Brown, the Maybot, and even the super-linear Sunak. While the British press focuses on the budget and the US election, we are sleepwalking into the final stages of the beginning of a full-blown WW3, and the British nation is all but defenceless, along with its allies in a similar state. The war blindness continues with another potentially politically motivated and strategically blind defence review many months away. Britain and the West are sleepwalking into war with the worst case of War Blindness in history. Meanwhile, in the real world, as we feared and predicted, all that is on the horizon is escalation.

In Ukraine, the struggle continues, but North Korea has now openly joined the war on Russia's side. North Korea has, for well over a year, been supplying artillery shells (although of low quality) and some 200 ballistic missiles (many of which were recently destroyed at a Russian arms dump). This step of providing front-line troops is the biggest escalation to date, with the recent arrival of up to 10,000 North Koreans to fight alongside Russia. This means that Ukraine is now at war with both Russia and North Korea, and with millions of men in the North Korean military, there will be many more to follow. Such a cascade of alliances, similar to 1914, will demand a NATO response and significant aid flow from South Korea to Ukraine.
Iran's war on Israel is in the stage of the silence before the storm, waiting for the moment when Israel attacks Iran's nuclear sites and the gulf is closed to all oil-carrying traffic as the region erupts into a full-blown war involving the Americans and drawing in the Chinese.
North Korea is now at war with Ukraine, which is a signal that war on the peninsula is now very close at hand.
China is now ready for war after launching its autocratic axis at the West; since 2020, President Xi has been making every preparation he could for war (without the Western press joining the dots). Now, the economic brick wall - the product of Xi’s four-year plan - will force him to pull the trigger imminently. The recent failed economic stimulus package leaves him no choice.

A government's prime mission must be to protect the nation. Sunak failed, and now Starmer is following in his footsteps as we sleepwalk into a war that is not years away, as many think, but only weeks and months away, unlike in WW2 when the newly formed fighter command stood in the way of the mighty Luftwaffe. However, despite the dire lessons from Ukraine and Israel, we have no effective missile defence shield.

6.0 - The shocking magnitude of the UK's collective denial and war-blindness

There are three primary delusions behind the government's position on defence:

6.1 - That spending equates to military capability: Wars are decided by industrial power and military capability, not the size of the defence budget. Hence, Sunak’s aspiration to raise spending to 2.5% of GDP will not stop predators like Putin. The government's claim that “We are investing a record amount in defence to protect the national security of the United Kingdom and ensure the operational effectiveness of our Armed Forces. Between 2020 and 2025, we’ve invested an extra £24 billion – the largest sustained increase since the end of the Cold War" is just spin and lies. The graph below demonstrates that defence capability is very much dependent on long-term, sustained, efficient spending. The only solution now is an emergency 5% spend on defence to fill the immediate deficits.

6.2 - That UK defences are in a state of readiness: This is demonstrably incorrect. Even the Secretary of State for Defence has admitted as much.

6.3 - That NATO is in a state of readiness: Unfortunately, the alliance is far from ready for war. For example, its rail infrastructure that facilitates reinforcements to be sent from central nations to the eastern front runs on different gauges, which, coupled with the vast amounts of red tape, prevents a rapid route to reinforcement. In addition, NATO nations' responses to the war in Ukraine have so far failed to secure Ukraine.

7.0 - Raising Britain’s defences

Britain was exposed to attacks and war with Putin’s Russia due to sequential defence failures of the Conservative Party that have now been exacerbated by recent precipitous defence cuts, in the face of escalation in Ukraine by Putin, by the Labour government's negligence. The first national priority is the construction of a national missile shield. To correct this, and numerous other vulnerabilities, we urgently need to activate the following steps:

The UK press and news services need to follow the Telegraph and Daily Mail campaigns to raise awareness of the danger ahead.
The public needs to become aware of the danger and place pressure on the political leadership to act.
Political leaders need to put defence first, above all other policies. They will need to find a lot of money from somewhere!
The MOD needs to be lateralised and streamlined. The acquisition process especially needs to be revolutionised to adapt the defence complex for war.
The diversity agenda needs to be replaced with capability and lethality from the top down in all elements of the defence complex.
A lateralisation programme needs to be initiated across the armed services and the industrial defence complex.
The economy needs to be mobilised into a wartime economy along with a Shadow Factory Program.
The Royal Navy needs to recommission reserve ships, prepare the fleet, and significantly increase the lethality of every platform (especially the carriers).
Reserves need to be called up to train with the full-time fighting force.
Annual spending needs to be raised to 5% of GDP, removing all spending elements that do not apply to combat capability. These should be raised in a very long-term war bond to fill the immediate capability gaps in combat capability with a major recruitment drive for all arms.
The UK must prepare to be militarily abandoned by an America run by Trump.
The UK must systematically go through every major lesson learned in WW2 and enact evolved policies on weapons development, defence industries, national resilience, and control of the sea lanes to sustain the economy.

Sir Winston Churchill’s dictum “never surrender” relies on having the resources to stay the course – at present, Britain would be lucky to survive the opening stages of WW3.

8.0 - The absence of leadership

In the 1930s, appeasement was all the rage. However, leading the voice of opposition was Winston Churchill, who became increasingly outspoken as to the threat that Germany represented and the inability of Chamberlain's government to meet the growing challenge. As such, he became the public focus for increased levels of concern, pressuring the complacent Chamberlain's government into rearmament and demanding sufficient national funding to do so. Today in Britain, no politician is acting in the role of Churchill. With political leadership acting as a focus for public concern, it is possible to mobilise the nation in its defence. With an absent political class prepared to defend the realm, it is now up to the public to shape the debate and response by making sure that they know the magnitude of the threat we face and choose to respond appropriately. The consequences of failing to do so have been grievous, and yet, unless we amend our ways portend war of a similar magnitude to WW2.