Creating Actionable Strategies For The Future
Welcome to the archive of Arkite Alerts, Global Forecaster's free newsletter notifying subscribers of the latest news, podcasts, interviews, Global Trader performance reviews and more.
Arkite: the name derived from my Arkent Strategy to navigate, survive and thrive through the great shift.
The world isn't slowing down. It's accelerating.
We called Bitcoin's blow-off top at 125,000 — while most were still buying. We forecasted COVID-19 three months before it reached Europe. We predicted Russia's invasion of Ukraine six months in advance — and pinpointed the week it would begin. We mapped Israel's military campaign from Gaza to Hezbollah to the strikes on Iran, issuing alerts hours before each escalation.
This isn't hindsight. It's foresight — built on decades of reality-tested models of human systems, historical cycles, and geopolitical dynamics.
And right now, those models are pointing to what comes next.
The global paradigm shift from West to East is accelerating. The conflict cycle we identified as World War III in 2022 continues to evolve. And the flashpoint we've long warned about — a Chinese move on Taiwan — is no longer theoretical. Recent PLAN exercises are now on the scale of a real invasion force.
The question isn't whether disruption is coming. It's whether you'll see it before it arrives.
For over twenty years, David Murrin has provided investment-grade geopolitical insight that cuts through the noise — helping subscribers not just understand the forces reshaping our world, but anticipate them.
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Founder, Global Forecaster
U.S. officials — including Senator Marco Rubio and Vice President Marco Rubio and J. D. Vance publicly warned before recent Geneva nuclear talks that Iran is attempting to rebuild its nuclear infrastructure and expand its ballistic missile capabilities. Reports from multiple credible news outlets confirm that:
U.S. officials said Iran is “rebuilding and expanding” its nuclear and missile programmes and represents a major threat to U.S. interests.
Rubio stated that Iran is trying to restart elements of its nuclear programme and is working on ballistic missiles that already threaten European and U.S. regional forces, and is “trying to get to the point” of being able to pose a more serious threat.
Vance and others used similar language ahead of talks, warning Tehran should be prevented from ever acquiring a nuclear weapon and pressing concerns about ballistic missile development.
The Geneva negotiations between America and Iran are now all but over, even though they are to be extended, as the Iranians continue to play for time, but have given no ground
The signs are that the Iranian war, which GF believes to be inevitable, which will be far larger in scale than most expect, could start at any time from tonight on 27 Feb. The warning signs are-
The impact of closing the straits will be very significant for oil prices
If you want headlines and validation, there are plenty of options.
But if you genuinely want to understand how the world arrived at this moment — and, more importantly, where it is heading next — there is only one publication to read: Murrinations Gold
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But are you intellectually curious enough?
Our Global Forecaster coverage of Iran’s war on Israel, starting on October 8th and culminating in the 12-day war, has been predictive and accurate from its commencement to the deployment of B2 over Iran. putting us in a good position to predict the next phase of the cumulation of this Israel-Iran war with American intervention.
1.0 Trump’s Forced Ceasefire was Disastrous, driven by his ego and not by strategic imperative, as it allowed Iran to continue advancing its nuclear programme and to rebuild its long range missile stocks, an outcome that has now clearly come to pass.
2.0 Trump Attempted to Fuel a Coup in Iran That Failed. Our assessment is that the arrival of approximately 5,000 Starlink terminals in Iran could not have occurred without at least tacit CIA support. These systems appear to have played a critical role in enabling communications, coordination and information dissemination during the recent U.S.-backed attempted uprising. That effort has reportedly resulted in the deaths of an estimated 50,000–60,000 protesters, both through street violence and subsequent mass executions.
3.0 The Inevitability of War with Iran.
The core forces driving an eventual war with Iran are structural and increasingly unavoidable. Central among them is Iran’s determination to deploy nuclear weapons on Fattah-1 missiles, which are capable of striking Israel. Such a scenario is existentially unacceptable to Israel and equally intolerable to the United States under Trump’s leadership. Layered onto this is the strategic opportunity to constrain and disrupt the flow of Iranian oil to China, weakening Beijing’s energy security. Added still is the humiliation of Iran’s leadership, which continued to violently suppress and kill protesters in the streets despite assurances to Trump that the repression would cease. Taken together, these factors make conflict increasingly inevitable, as we have previously outlined.
4.0 Peace Talks Will Not See Peace and Iran will not give up its nuclear program or its missiles.
5.0 Iran is being emboldened by China, which brings with it significant escalation risks.
6.0 America's Force Structure Demonstrates Trump's Intention to Remove the Mullahs from Power by Force. The USAF and USN forces deployments, along with the IDF, are configured for a multi week, high tempo air war in which we expect the Iranians to lash out at Gulf oil infrastructure and attempt to close the Straits of Hormuz. Much like Hitler’s last stand in Berlin, which is commonly referred to as the Battle of Berlin (April–May 1945), but, within Nazi leadership and historical discussion, it is often described as “Götterdämmerung” (Twilight of the Gods), a term drawn from Wagnerian opera that the Nazi regime used to frame its final collapse in mythic terms.
Dear Arkite,
Watch my latest interview on the IRF podcast: Trump’s Venezuela Gamble Has Unleashed the Dogs of War
David Murrin frames the current moment as the breakdown of a “Westphalian” order and the late-stage collision of empire cycles: a declining US confronting a rising, war-prepared China. He argues China is using Russia and Iran as deliberate proxies, creating a widening, multi-theatre confrontation that is “proxy war at best, world war at worst.” In his view, the West is distracted and strategically incoherent—especially because Trump’s approach has weakened alliances and trust (including intelligence-sharing), exactly when allied industrial scale and coordination would be most needed.
Discussion Topics:
● The End of the Westphalian World
● The New NSS Strategy Unfolding Before Our Eyes
● Venezuela
● Iran
● Ukraine
● Taiwan and the Western Pacific
● Markets
Dear Arkite,
Watch my second interview on the Canadian Prepper podcast on the US Empire Collapse and WW3:
David argues that the world is already in the early phase of a long-term geopolitical struggle between China and the West, likely intensifying toward 2030. Using historical cycles and his idea of societal “entropy,” he suggests Western nations are entering a period of decline marked by economic strain, political fragmentation, and weakening industrial capacity, while China is rising through energy security, manufacturing strength, and long-term strategic planning.
He views current conflicts—especially Ukraine—as testing grounds for new forms of warfare and power competition, warning that China may be learning faster from these developments than the West. David concludes that only stronger alliances, renewed industrial resilience, and a clear strategic focus can prevent this period of instability from becoming a prolonged global confrontation.
If you are a Professional Asset Manager and would like to know more about our Precious Metals View.
Dear Arkite,
Watch my latest interview on the hot topics of AI, Taiwan, and the Race to Control the Seas:
David argues that modern warfare is accelerating so rapidly—driven by hypersonic weapons, dense sensor networks, and AI—that human decision-making is being squeezed out. He links this to rising global instability, information warfare against the West, and an approaching strategic confrontation centred on China, Taiwan, and the Indo-Pacific. Topics covered include:
I aim to provide early warnings of geopolitical and economic shifts, allowing leaders and the public to anticipate and navigate critical inflection points.
Historical patterns leading to WW1 and WW2 and our unique behavioural models all point to the fact WW3 has already started!
Across history, a distinct group of scholars and philosophers have devoted itself to understanding why empires rise, flourish, overextend and ultimately collapse.
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