Arkite Alerts Archive

Welcome to the archive of Arkite Alerts, Global Forecaster's free newsletter notifying subscribers of the latest news, podcasts, interviews, Global Trader performance reviews and more.

Arkite: the name derived from my Arkent Strategy to navigate, survive and thrive through the great shift.

Arkent Fund Hits The Ball Out Of the Park in Q1 2026

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bibilcal

 

On 23 November 2023, in response to multiple high-net-worth (HNW) client requests, we created an unleveraged, long-only fund that would be simple to manage, with a long-term investment horizon and low turnover, aligned with our strategic view of market moves driven by the rally into the K wave cycle peak in 2030.

We called it Arkent fund after the Biblical Ark, i.e., a vessel/investment fund to survive the financial flood ahead.

The results have been outstanding so far...

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Q1 2026

At the end of Q4 2025, we made the bold switch fully out of precious metals, which comprsied 53% of our portfolio, into energy in anticipation of a war with Iran driving oil much higher. That investment decision paid off in spades, yielding a 25.42% unleveraged return in Q1.

So, if you are an HNW, can you afford not to know Global Forecasters Arkent Strategy?

Engage David | David Murrin

 

 

The Massive Future Social Impact of AI

 

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right and left brains

In our The AI Revolution; Part 3, published over three years ago, we warned that-

The advantages of AI are obvious and include streamlining iterative processes, saving time and money, eliminating bias, and automating repetitive tasks. But like any technological revolution, there will be short-term consequences of massive unemployment in the high-tech nations, which will burden the social security systems. In effect, AI will quickly replace the iterative tasks in human societies. But is a long way from being able to replace the lateral and creative functions in society.

Thus, our long-term prediction is that, over the next generations, AI technology will change the ratio of lateral to linear people in a technological society, lateralising future human societies. Such a process could be very brutal, as it removes employment opportunities for linear thinkers, creating major social discord, lowering incomes, and ultimately forcing adaptations and lower breeding rates for the linear sector within society.

Today, Our Warning to the linear Thinkers is unfolding as affirmed by Antropic's March employment report and How AI Will Favour Lateral and Practical Thinking Over Linear Thinking (aka Neurodiversity)

 

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Ai jobs

In a recent interview, the CEO of Palantir Technologies offered a direct and provocative view of the future of work. He stated, “There are basically two ways to know you have a future. One, you have some vocational training. Or two, you’re neurodivergent.”

As AI systems continue to advance, many traditional white-collar tasks—such as coding, writing, and analytical work—are becoming increasingly automated. This shift is already changing which skills hold value in the labour market. Some roles are inherently more exposed than others, particularly those composed of structured, repeatable tasks. At present, AI adoption is clustering in areas such as:

  • Computer and mathematical fields
  • Business and finance
  • Office and administrative work
  • Legal, education, and parts of the media

These sectors rely heavily on language processing, logical structures, and predictable workflows—domains where AI performs well.

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In contrast, the following areas remain significantly more resistant to automation:

  • Construction
  • Agriculture
  • Installation and repair
  • Transport
  • Healthcare and personal care (hands-on roles)

These fields depend on physical presence, real-time judgment, and complex interaction with the physical world—capabilities that AI currently struggles to replicate.

In summary:

  • Work that is predictable, digital, and repeatable is increasingly exposed to AI automation.
  • Work that is physical, context-driven, and human-led will be in future ever more exposed to robotic advances
  • Neurodiversity based on lateral thinking will become an ever more premium quality.

Looking ahead, organisations are likely to reassess how they evaluate talent. There will be a shift away from traditional credentials and toward practical skills, adaptability, and non-linear (lateral) thinking. This transition may elevate candidates with unconventional profiles and, as GF argues, could contribute to a broader shift in the social and economic paradigm.

 

This is just another example of how Global Forecaster keeps you ahead of The Heard!

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Combating Linear-Lateral Polarisation With A New, Balanced Logic

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lateral

Summary 

Global Forecaster invites you on a transformative intellectual journey designed to expand your perception of reality and the world around you. Drawing inspiration from The Matrix and Plato’s Allegory of the Cave, it challenges you to "take the red pill"—to abandon collective delusions and embrace a deeper understanding through a balanced approach that integrates both lateral (creative, intuitive) and linear (logical, structured) thinking. In an era of rising entropy, declining empires, and social fragmentation, such balanced cognition offers a pathway to greater clarity, adaptability, and foresight. Global Forecaster's mission is to help individuals and organisations develop these cognitive tools to better navigate a rapidly changing and uncertain world.

Introduction and Invitation

Join us for a unique journey of discovery at Global Forecaster, where we'll push the boundaries of your thinking and empower you to embrace innovative approaches that lead to comprehensive, nuanced outcomes.

Read More Here-

Combating Linear-Lateral Polarisation With A New, Balanced Logic | David Murrin

Tomorrow we will outline The Massive Future Social Impact of AI 

So, can you afford not to know?

Subscribe Now To Murrinations Gold

 

Trump's Undeserved Confidence

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Trump's Undeserved Confidence

Trump's Undeserved Confidence

David Murrin sits down with Catherine Cashmore, of Land Cycle Investor, once again to talk about the latest in Iran VS USA/Israel. He warns of the very real market crash to come, and shares his methodology behind his predictions.

Watch Now

Family Resilience: Have You Done Your Own Resilience Shop?

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As global geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, the prospect of a major great-power conflict is no longer purely speculative. The convergence of multiple regional wars and strategic rivalries is creating a level of instability not seen in decades. The ongoing Russia–Ukraine war shows no clear path to resolution, the Iran–Israel–U.S. confrontation risks widening across the Middle East, and China continues to prepare for a potential military confrontation in the Western Pacific.

In response, NATO leaders are increasingly warning that societies must adopt a “whole-of-society” defence posture, preparing both governments and civilians for the realities of large-scale conflict. Several European states, notably Sweden and Finland, have already revived comprehensive civil-defence systems and public preparedness programmes. The United Kingdom, however, remains comparatively underprepared, lacking robust missile defence capabilities and modernised civil-contingency planning suitable for high-intensity conflict.

At the same time, energy and maritime security risks are intensifying. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and wider Gulf region is driving oil prices upward, while a large number of merchant vessels—many of them oil and gas tankers—remain trapped in the Gulf, creating a concentrated and vulnerable maritime target set. The immobilisation of these vessels threatens to ripple through global energy markets and supply chains. These pressures are compounded by the continuing Houthi disruption of shipping in the Red Sea, further constraining one of the world’s most critical trade corridors.

Taken together, these developments point to growing strain on global supply chains and energy markets in the weeks ahead.

The question for individuals is, therefore, increasingly practical: have you made your own resilience preparations?

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Learn More, Read Our Preparations Plan-

 

Be the Solution-Not the Problem

Subscribe now and find out. Murrinations Gold

 

 

 

When Empires Die, They Don't Send a Memo

World War III, China's ascension, why David Murrin thinks the West is already checkmated and why Churchill was left-handed.

This conversation was recorded on March 18th, 2026, before recent developments, but Murrin’s framework for understanding them remains depressingly relevant.

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itcom podcast

 

An increasing number of people think World War III is coming. However, David Murrin thinks they’re about four years too late.

It's just a rumour that was spread around town
Somebody said that someone got filled in
For saying that, people get killed in
The result of this shipbuilding. 
Elvis Costello

The geopolitical forecaster who predicted the 2008 financial crisis, Brexit, and Trump's election joins me this week with a thesis that should make you uncomfortable: America's empire is dying on schedule, China's ascension is mathematically inevitable, and your political leaders are systematically selected for their inability to see it coming.

David does not hold back!

The Maths of Empire

Murrin didn't pull these ideas from thin air. He's spent decades mapping what he calls the Five Stages of Empire, a cycle as predictable as tides, and about as stoppable. Think of it as geopolitical science: Regionalisation, Ascension, Maturity, Overextension, and finally, the awkward dinner party conversation where nobody mentions that Grandpa Empire is clearly losing his marbles.

According to Murrin's models, America is firmly in Stage Five. China is in Stage Two. You do the math(s).

Also covered in this interview:

  • Iran's $50 Drone vs America's $2 Million Interceptor
  • Why Smart People Can't Run Countries (And Why That Might Be the Point)
  • The Coming Commodity Supercycle
  • The Singularity Arms Race
  • What This Means for You

Listen Now

Anric Blatt’s Market Convergence Report

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anric

 Anric Blatt's  View of the World

This quarter, three independent macro frameworks built by three different minds across three decades all converge on the same window.

  • David Murrin’s empire cycle. I consider him the finest global macro forecaster alive. His “Breaking the Code of History” model predicted Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, identified the conditions for Middle East escalation in this exact timeframe, and placed the commodity supercycle peak in the 2025-2027 window. If you haven’t read his work, start there.
  • Neil Howe ‘s Fourth Turning. The generational architecture that explains WHY the institutions are breaking.⠀
  • Ray Dalio ‘s debt cycle. Which borrows from Murrin’s earlier work in ways that deserve far more public acknowledgement than they’ve received. The overlap in concepts, the five-stage model, the commodity cycle timing, and the hegemonic transition framework. too significant to chalk up to parallel thinking. Readers of both will draw their own conclusions. I’ve drawn mine.


Three lenses. One verdict. We are inside the convergence window. Right now. Through 2030.

The primary framework behind this report belongs to David Murrin - His book “Breaking the Code of History” is, in my view, the most important work on empire cycles, geopolitical forecasting, and the K-wave commodity cycle that exists today. 

I have known David for over twenty years. He used to fly in to advise our team at Infiniti Capital AG at our annual partners’ meetings on our lake in Italy. Those sessions changed how I see the world. Not the markets. The world. There is a difference, and David taught me to see it.


Over those years, a professional relationship became a genuine friendship. If there is one person on earth I would choose to go into business with, it is David Murrin. Not because he is brilliant, which he is. Because he is honest. And in the rooms I spend my time in, honest brilliance is the rarest commodity of all.


His website is davidmurrin.co.uk. His work deserves your attention. Start with “Breaking the Code of History”

 

If you would like to follow Global Forecaster’s daily analysis of the trajectory of this regional Middle Eastern conflict, you can upgrade to Gold or Platinum to access our prediction strings—offering some of the most comprehensive open-source intelligence assessments of unfolding events. CHOOSE YOUR SUBSCRIPTION | David Murrin

 

Meanwhile, for Asset Managers, our Market Views across all asset classes, our Price models have been spot on. Can you afford not to know? Engage David

Podcast: Oil Wars, Resignations, and the Durand Line

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Podcast: Oil Wars, Resignations, and the Durand Line

In the latest episode, David and Horatio dive into a fortnight of rapid global escalation that threatens to upend energy markets and western security.

As drone attacks target critical bypass pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, we ask if the world's last "workarounds" for oil are about to fail.

A look at the shock departure of Joe Kent and the growing internal fractures regarding U.S. involvement in the Middle East.

While the West is fixated on Iran, an "open war" has broken out between Pakistan and Afghanistan. We discuss the conflicting narratives, the collapse of diplomacy, and why this border could be the world's most dangerous oversight.

Stay ahead of the curve.

Listen Now

The Dam Of Delusion is Breaking As This Regional War Escalates

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There is no change to our analysis:

Trump has let loose the dogs of war as we outlined in WW3-90; Trump 33: His Venezuela Gamble Has Unleashed the Dogs of War. From the first missile fired, we have maintained the view that this is an escalating long war, in stark contrast to the major collective delusion that it would be another short 12-day war.

However, the scale of delusion in global markets is likely to be stripped away as the Gulf conflict escalates, forcing a rapid reassessment of risk as volatility spikes. For weeks, markets have priced in a contained confrontation, assuming that energy flows—particularly through the Strait of Hormuz—would remain largely unaffected. That assumption is now increasingly fragile.

As the conflict intensifies and shipping disruptions become total, energy markets will begin to reflect the true strategic risk imposed by teh IRGC war strategy, driving oil and gas prices sharply higher on a sustained basis. This shift in market perception will not be gradual; it will be abrupt, as traders move from complacency to crisis pricing, recognising that the shutdown of the Gulf and the destruction of its energy production infrastructure will have outsized global economic consequences.

So far, our predictions of the war's course have been very accurate. We continue to argue that the war is set to escalate in both scope and intensity, with a high risk that China will soon also commence a war in the Pacific. Hence, the trends are only in their early stages with huge potential returns to come.

Despite the ongoing bullish rhetoric, Trump’s War against Iran is not going well, but is hopelessly off track and increasingly out of control. Having lost the initiative, Trump has effectively fallen into an IRGC “bear trap,” where the conflict is now being shaped on Iran’s terms rather than his own. As such, its duration will be far longer than the majority expect; American forces will be drawn into the threat, and oil prices will rocket to $250 as the full 20 billion barrels per day from the Gulf stops flowing and the infrastructure for energy production is laid waste on all sides by increasingly intense and destructive exchanges of missile, bombs and drone Fire.

 

Murrination gold Insights

Our views on the war are detailed in our extensive Murrination insights-

Murrination Platinum Insights

Then, each day, in our Platinum level, we update every Murrination string with the latest relevant information to our Gold Insights with related developments and our analysis—creating one of the most comprehensive and forward-looking open-source intelligence products available.

 

If you would like to follow Global Forecaster’s daily analysis of the trajectory of this regional Middle Eastern conflict, you can upgrade to Gold or Platinum to access our prediction strings—offering some of the most comprehensive open-source intelligence assessments of unfolding events. CHOOSE YOUR SUBSCRIPTION | David Murrin

 

Meanwhile, for Asset Managers, our Market Views across all asset classes, our Price models have been spot on. Can you afford not to know? Engage David

The Regional Iranian War

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state of it

 

David and Horatio discuss the escalation in the regional Iranian war. Going into depth about where and when this began and how this conflict may look in the coming months and years. 

We also go over the other current conflicts in the globe right now, Pakistan and Afghanistan and Russia and Ukraine. Mentioning the complex dynamics that are involved in these very different but interlinked situations. 

Stay ahead of the curve.

Listen Now