Einstein famously observed that doing the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result is the definition of stupidity and insanity; a warning that seems relevant to recent U.S. war operations in the region against Iran. The failed “mowing the grass” approach (aka Ruble bouncing as I have come to call it), previously seen in repeated strikes against Houthis' targets that cost hundreds of millions of dollars yet left the Houthis still operational, clearly illustrates the problem.
Rather than learning from these profound military lessons, Washington appears to have repeated the same strategy in confronting Iran on a larger, high-tempo scale. The Houthis themselves drew lessons from the IRGC’s doctrine of asymmetric warfare, and Tehran is now demonstrating a similar mastery in the Gulf; hidden long-range missiles to keep attacking Israel, to keep doing damage, whilst reducing US mid-course interceptor magazine depth with huge strategic consequences for imminent WW3 escalations in the Pacific. But best of all, it has emulated and expanded on the Houthis' success of denying the Red Sea to shipping, while using mines, drones, missiles and unmanned fast attack boats to challenge far more expensive U.S. naval assets and disrupt shipping across the gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. For the IRGC, this is like shooting fish in a barrel, and we should expect many more ships to be hit in the days ahead.
The result is a classic case of a technologically superior American force struggling against a well-prepared adversary using asymmetric tactics to impose disproportionate costs. This strategic paradigm is America's nemesis; as time erodes national willpower, leading to defeat on every occasion since and including Vietnam. In the case of Trump today, he is, by our assessment, less able to withstand the atrophy of time than any other US president caught in war. Indeed, on Monday this week (war day 8), he announced it was all over and on Wednesday, he was bawling out his four main advisors for feeding him misinformation that led us to war.........
© David Murrin 2026. All images courtesy of Getty Images. |