Arkite Alerts Archive

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In the early summer of 2020, having picked the negative low of oil prices that marked the commencement of the C-wave of the current K-wave cycle, we warned that the long-standing pattern of declining interest rates was about to reverse. We anticipated a decade-duration rise that would push long-end rates above 16 percent by 2030. For the ill-informed, failing to recognise or prepare for such an interest paradigm shift in an over-indebted world would have created untold economic pain.

Thus, this was one of our market predictions that intersected with real-time geopolitical impacts no one could afford to miss, and its implications were—and remain—immense.

Over the past two years, the surge in long-end rates briefly paused, leading many to forget what the first stage of this new Bond bear market felt like.

However, the second phase of the great bear market is approaching.

To understand what comes next and how it will impact markets, our politics and you-

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Strategic Compression describes the critical moment when a rising power’s expansion collides with the resistance of established states, creating a tightening strategic environment that both constrains its ambitions and accelerates its willingness to use force. As rival empires, regional powers, and defensive coalitions push back, the rising state’s external room for manoeuvre shrinks at the same time internal pressures—economic strain, demographic stress, or declining legitimacy—intensify. This dual squeeze produces a dangerous “now-or-never” psychology in which leaders conclude that peaceful pathways are closing and that delay will worsen their strategic position.

Historically, such compression has been a powerful trigger of hegemonic wars: states do not lash out at the height of their strength, but rather when they fear their window of opportunity is about to close, prompting bold, risky attempts to break containment. Understanding this dynamic is therefore essential for predicting not only why wars occur, but when. In the context of China’s rise, Strategic Compression 2.0 provides the framework for identifying the point at which Xi Jinping—facing tightening geopolitical constraints and growing internal pressures—may choose to initiate a “breakout war” in the Asian basin.

By analysing China through this lens and mapping the dynamics of Strategic Compression onto the 108–112-year hegemonic war cycle, we can more accurately anticipate the timing and conditions that could trigger Beijing’s shift from competition to kinetic conflict.

GF Argues that warning signs are flashing Red!!

Can you afford Not To Learn More?

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and read our groundbreaking series

Strategic Compression as the Catalyst for Hegemonic Wars: Part 1:The Theory

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Curiosity is the single greatest divider between those who evolve and those who decay.

It is the spark that compels individuals and societies to question assumptions, explore the unknown, and constantly recalibrate in a changing world.

The curious remain dynamic—absorbing new information, adapting their thinking, and developing capabilities that keep them relevant.

Those who lack curiosity, by contrast, become rigid, complacent, and blind to emerging threats and opportunities.

Over time, this stagnation turns into atrophy: skills fade, awareness narrows, and the ability to pivot disappears.

In an era defined by rapid technological, geopolitical and societal upheaval, curiosity is no longer a luxury—it is the foundational trait that determines whether one survives, thrives, or is left behind.

So If you are curious and want to stay adaptive, SUBSCRIBE TO - Murrinations Gold

Dear Arkite,

Watch my latest interview on Why Geopolitical Awareness Matters to David Murrin, Military and Financial Forecaster:

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Olivia interviews David Murrin, a geopolitical and financial forecaster. Murrin discusses the cyclical nature of empires, asserting that the western world, particularly the United States, is in decline while China rises in power—leading towards inevitable conflict. He emphasizes the importance of recognizing these cycles, addressing political and economic dissonance, and urgently waking up to imminent threats.

In the Matters/Not Matters speed round, they discuss topics like military strategy, cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence, and the role of social media. Murrin concludes by urging listeners to educate themselves and actively engage in discussions that shape the future of democracy and freedom.

00:21 The Cycles of Empires and Current Geopolitical Climate
03:08 America's Decline and Global Implications
06:13 Call to Action: Awakening the West
09:21 Historical Context and Lessons from Empires
12:51 Speed Round: Matters/Not Matters

Watch Now!

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Curiosity is the single greatest divider between those who evolve and those who decay.

It is the spark that compels individuals and societies to question assumptions, explore the unknown, and constantly recalibrate in a changing world.

The curious remain dynamic—absorbing new information, adapting their thinking, and developing capabilities that keep them relevant.

Those who lack curiosity, by contrast, become rigid, complacent, and blind to emerging threats and opportunities.

Over time, this stagnation turns into atrophy: skills fade, awareness narrows, and the ability to pivot disappears.

In an era defined by rapid technological, geopolitical and societal upheaval, curiosity is no longer a luxury—it is the foundational trait that determines whether one survives, thrives, or is left behind.

So If you are curious and want to stay adaptive, SUBSCRIBE TO - Murrinations Gold

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According to Modern Diplomacy, recent satellite imagery and open-source monitoring indicate that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and the China Coast Guard have deployed an expanding flotilla — dozens of ships and cutters — across multiple maritime zones, including the East China Sea, the South China Sea, and areas near Taiwan and Okinawa. The report describes the mobilisation as “the largest coordinated maritime show of force in the region thus far,” combining naval warships, logistics vessels, maritime-militia groups and paramilitary cutters.

Strategically, this deployment reflects a major shift in how China uses maritime power: rather than isolated drills or patrols, Beijing now appears to favour a persistent, simultaneous multi-theatre presence — a maritime equivalent of grey-zone saturation that tests adversary surveillance, challenges claims of sovereignty, and erodes the resilience of contested sea areas. For regional states like Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines, the massing increases pressure on national coast guards and navies, complicates freedom-of-navigation operations, and heightens the risk of accidental escalation. For the wider Indo-Pacific security architecture, the show-of-force acts as a signal that China is ready to operationalise its A2/AD (anti-access/area-denial) toolbox at scale — and that future crises may begin with overwhelming maritime presence rather than traditional naval battles.

Read More About The Building Chinese Japanese Crisis

Red Peril 52:A Major Escalation in Japan–China Tensions

Red Peril 43; CCP Preparations For The T-Day Invasion

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The opposite of amathia is best captured by the Greek concept of phronesis, or practical wisdom. Whereas amathia represents intelligent blindness—the misuse of reason through pride, certainty, and the refusal to examine oneself, phronesis is intelligence guided by humility, self-awareness, and moral clarity. It is the ability to see clearly, especially about oneself, and the willingness to question one’s own beliefs rather than defend them out of ego.

Phronesis aligns reason with virtue and reality, turning knowledge into wise action and cultivating the courage to admit uncertainty or correct error. If amathia insists, “I already know,” phronesis responds, “I seek to know.” Related qualities such as sophia (deep philosophical wisdom), epistēmē (true knowledge), aletheia (openness to truth), and Socratic humility all reinforce this orientation toward understanding rather than self-deception. In essence, the opposite of amathia is a life rooted in self-aware, truth-seeking wisdom, where reason serves insight rather than ego.

While amathia is intelligent blindness—the misuse of reason through pride, certainty, and the refusal to examine oneself—phronesis is the condition in which intelligence is guided by humility, self-awareness, and moral insight.

Phronesis is:

• the ability to see clearly, especially about oneself
• the willingness to question one’s own beliefs
• the alignment of reason with virtue and reality
• the practice of turning knowledge into wise action
• the courage to admit uncertainty and correct error

Where amathia says, “I know,” phronesis says, “I seek to know.”
Where amathia defends the ego, phronesis interrogates it.
Where amathia uses intelligence to justify desire, phronesis uses intelligence to discipline desire.

If you want broader terms, the opposite of amathia also includes:

• Sophia – philosophical wisdom and deep understanding
• Epistēmē – true knowledge, not illusion
• Aletheia – openness to truth, the “unconcealing” of reality
• Socratic humility – knowing that one does not know

In summary, our modern world needs much more Phronesis to arrest its decline into amathia

Phronesis is the creed of Global Forecaster that we aspire to. So join us on our journey.

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Most productive citizens understand that the Labour Party’s policies are clearly destructive to the British economy and the nation’s security, but at Global Forecaster, we look much deeper—at the mechanisms of anti-entropic, productive systems and their opposite: entropic, declining systems. This long-term study has enabled us to identify the anatomy of national decline—and, equally, the structural drivers of success and expansion.

In advanced societies, money serves as a medium for exchanging real goods, enabling large-scale cooperation and the rise of complex empires. This system functions effectively while an empire or country expands and remains disciplined. However, once it becomes overextended, a familiar pattern emerges: someone proposes printing money as the solution. Monetary expansion has a profoundly entropic effect. It systematically devalues the efforts of those who produce real goods and services, weakening the incentives that sustain genuine productivity. At the same time, expansive social welfare systems often redistribute high levels of taxation to increasingly non-productive sectors of the population. The combination of currency debasement and the diversion of resources from productive activity to those who are unproductive accelerates the empire's or the country's entropic decay.

Ultimately, this dynamic becomes increasingly entropic in a black hole downward spiral, eroding motivation, undermining economic vitality, and rewarding the continuation of bad linear practices over lateral adaptability, driving the system’s Atherosclerosis and decline.

Learn more about the anatomy of decline and how nations rise from the ashes.

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In today’s Western, linear-thinking world—one increasingly filled with highly educated people who nonetheless believe astonishingly foolish things—such behaviour is often dismissed as ignorance. Yet the word ignorance is far too shallow to capture the depth of the problem, for what we face is not a lack of intelligence but the corruption of it: intelligent stupidity, the condition the ancient Greeks called amathia. Amathia is not the ignorance of not knowing, but the far more dangerous ignorance of not wanting to know—a refusal of self-examination disguised as certainty. As Socrates observed, there is only one true good, which is knowledge, and one true evil, which is ignorance.

However, the most lethal form of ignorance is found in the linear who are educated and conventionally brilliant but who are utterly lost to the world of wisdom. They can argue any position, win any debate, and deploy their intellect with dazzling skill, yet never once turn that intellect inward to question themselves. This, Socrates insisted, is the essence of amathia: a blindness of the mind and of the soul.

Modern thinkers have recognised the same danger. Karl Popper warned that the greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance but the illusion of knowledge (without wisdom), for once intelligence is captured by ideology, ego, or fear, it becomes a weapon of self-deception rather than truth. This is why intelligent people believe and commit foolish—or even evil—acts: they have invested so much of their identity in being right that admitting error feels like annihilation. Such a mind, clenched like a fist, cannot be opened by more data or better arguments, because its problem is not a lack of reason but the distortion of reason. The Stoics called this condition a sickness of the soul—a corruption rooted in false impressions, bad education, and moral weakness. It begins with intellectual flaws but is sustained by dark psychology within the character, for to say “I might be wrong” requires the courage to risk losing who one thinks one is.

This ancient insight has echoed across centuries. In Athens, amathia manifested as political pride; today it appears as the linear certainty of the majority of our Western leaders. We live in a world where information is infinite, yet true understanding and wisdom grows ever rarer. As Socrates taught, only a few does evil knowingly—yet the tragedy of our time is that many now do so knowingly and call it good.

The Greeks understood that the gravest danger to a society is not stupidity but clever minds estranged from wisdom, and they had a word for the brilliant, educated people who cannot see their own blindness: amathia.

Read More About The Amathia Driving The Decline Of America

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Dear Arkite,

Watch my latest interview with Steve Yang of Natural Resource Stocks:

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In this episode, geopolitical strategist and macro investor David Murrin joins host Steve Yang to break down the world through the lens of long term war and empire cycles. Murrin explains why he believes the West is in the late stages of its current cycle, why entropy is rising across political, financial, and social systems, and how that translates into real world risk for investors and citizens.

Drawing on four decades of professional investing, Murrin challenges the idea of true black swans. He argues that so called surprises are usually the result of bad models and missed signals. Using his Global Forecaster framework, he walks through how power transitions, conflict escalation, and structural imbalances tend to repeat, and why China’s rise, the pressure on the dollar system, and the growing risk of wider war are all part of a predictable pattern.

Murrin and Yang also dig into the role of gold, silver, and commodities in this environment. They discuss why capital is moving into hard assets, why gold and silver can correct with the stock market and then launch much higher, and how debt, money printing, and geopolitical entropy intersect. Murrin shares bold upside views on gold and silver, along with his thinking on the coming commodity supercycle.

Watch Now!