Arkite Alerts Archive

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Global Forecaster is not just another research, analytics, or opinion product. It is fundamentally different because its founder, David Murrin, spent three decades as a principal risk-taker—personally responsible for investment decisions, position sizing, timing, and the consequences of being right or wrong. Unlike analyst- or politician-driven models, his role required synthesising external inputs using his models for human behaviour,  probability assessments, and competing views into a single, decisive action based on future events: what to buy or sell, when to enter, and how much risk to commit.

Global Forecaster is built for that same decision-making reality. Whilst it is designed to inform debate and, at times, offer multiple hedged outcomes under many circumstances, when probabilities of outcomes are perceived to be very high, it is designed to support those who must choose and act with clear, actionable predictions.

Many ask how certainty is possible in a world that is effectively quantum mechanical, with infinite possible outcomes. The answer is straightforward: collective human behaviour. While the future may be probabilistic, human systems are not random. People operate unconsciously, repeat patterns, and move in herds. Those patterns recur across markets, politics, and conflict, and it is precisely their predictability that gives Global Forecaster its edge.

The most powerful dislocations occur when collective perceptions are moving decisively in one direction, while underlying evidence points firmly in another. At such moments, collective belief detaches from reality—until it abruptly snaps back, leaving the majority wrong-footed and exposed. Global Forecaster is explicitly designed to identify these divergence points.

Crucially, when evidence runs counter to herd behaviour, Global Forecaster does not retreat into ambiguity. It maintains analytical discipline, waiting for the inflexion point when reality reasserts itself. This applies not only to markets but also to major geopolitical shifts, political turning points, and the onset of major conflicts.

If you are looking for a service that offers a menu of probabilities, caveats every conclusion, and avoids commitment in order to remain perpetually “safe,” Global Forecaster is not for you.

If, however, you want clear identification of high-probability outcomes, grounded in deep structural analysis—and the confidence to state them plainly and decisively—then Global Forecaster is built precisely for that purpose.

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In our Gold Murrination Irans War on Israel 17: Trump's Ceasefire - The Calm Before the Next Storm, we warned that Trump's Peace bomb would inevitably explode. Then in  Iran’s War on Israel 19: The Overthrow of the Mullahs We warned that the Iranian revolution would escalate, leading to US military strikes, and that Iran’s likely response would be to launch whatever missile capability it had remaining against US and Israeli targets. We also noted that this scenario carried a serious risk of a domino effect, potentially triggering a Chinese response that could surprise the world.

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Tonight or at the latest Tomorrow, a US strike now appears imminent.

Multiple indicators point to a rapid escalation: The UK is withdrawing military personnel from an American base in Qatar after Donald Trump threatened to intervene in Iran’s deadly protests .British forces, alongside American troops, are being withdrawn from the al-Udeid airbase in Qatar.

Lufthansa has instructed employees to prepare to leave Israel immediately and has cancelled all flights in and out from tomorrow (N12 News). Iron Dome batteries are reportedly being repositioned across Israel (Clash Report). Iran’s ambassador to Egypt has stated that Iran considers itself to be in a state of war (Al Arabiya).

At the same time, the US and UK are withdrawing personnel from bases in Qatar, while a significant tanker aircraft surge has been observed—five from Hawaii and six from Qatar. Nevatim Air Base in Israel is reportedly evacuating non-military personnel, and civilian shelters have been opened in Be’er Sheva and Dimona (Ynet).

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The U.S.-led "Snatch and Replace" operation in Venezuela, combined with unfolding regime-change efforts in Iran, marks a dramatic escalation in American foreign policy under Trump. These actions dismantle the post-WWII rules-based order, paving the way for a new era of geopolitical lawlessness.

While the operations demonstrate unmatched U.S. short-range military capabilities, they carry immense strategic risks—provoking authoritarian powers like China and Russia to escalate in kind. The bold use of force without congressional approval and Trump’s imperialist posture risk triggering a global chain reaction.

With China's growing assertiveness and a possible move on Taiwan looming, 2026 is shaping up to be a decisive—and potentially catastrophic—year in global history.

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In these challenging times, Gandalf’s wise words from The Fellowship of the Ring echo true, a quiet reminder to Frodo, bearing a huge burden and facing significant personal risk, that the meaning of our lives comes not from the times we’re born into, but from the choices we make within them.

“All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

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Further to our Amber warning on 22^nd December (outlined if you scroll down below), we are now upgrading our Red Lightning warning level to RED.

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has launched record-breaking military exercises encircling Taiwan, described as the largest and most expansive drills ever conducted around the island. These live-fire exercises span multiple maritime and air zones, with navigation warnings indicating an unprecedented geographic scope designed to simulate near-total operational encirclement.

Interestingly wording is different from previous exercises, Justice Mission is a warning to ‘external interference forces’, and includes ‘all dimensional deterrence outside the island chain’.

Strategically, this marks a significant escalation in coercive signalling. The drills go well beyond routine pressure and represent a large-scale operational rehearsal or a potential springboard for the opening of hostilities.

By staging the most extensive exercises to date, the PLA appears to be practising joint blockade enforcement, integrated command-and-control, missile and artillery coordination, and rapid force concentration — all core elements of a Taiwan contingency — while simultaneously normalising sustained, high-intensity military activity around the island.

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From a regional security perspective, the sheer scale of these exercises sharply increases the risk of crisis instability and miscalculation. As China continues to push the boundaries of military pressure, Taiwan, the United States, and regional allies face shrinking margins for error. The concern is clear: repeated and ever-larger drills lower the threshold for escalation in the Taiwan Strait.

Adding to the gravity of the situation, Chinese state media has released satellite imagery of Taiwanese airbases and military sites under the title: “How could you ever attempt independence.” This messaging removes any remaining ambiguity regarding intent.

For those who wish to understand just how dangerous this moment has become and why we have issued a RED Warning, we strongly encourage you to read the following-

WW3-84: Strategic Compression as the Catalyst for Hegemonic Wars: Part 2, China today

We note that since the publication of this article, two additional factors have emerged that materially increase Chinese Strategic compression:

1. The USD 11 billion U.S. arms sale to Taiwan, which Beijing will interpret as a direct escalation of American support for Taiwanese defence and deterrence.
2. The prospect of a Trump–Putin peace deal, which, if signed, could weaken Beijing’s strategic position by pulling Russia away from closer alignment with China.

WW3-85: Red Peril 54: China’s Casus Belli for War

We explain how China could justify its attack on Taiwan using Article 53

WW 86; Red Peril 55; The Battle For Taiwan and Western Pacific

This is an extended Murrination Report on how we see the Battle for Taiwan and the Western Pacific unfolding

So if you do not wish to be in the dark over this next phase of the unfolding of WW3

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As we gather with family and friends this Christmas, surrounded by warmth, light, and the comfort of peace, we must spare a moment for those who have none of these things. For on Europe’s eastern doorstep, as yet another winter descends, Ukraine continues to fight—abandoned, under-resourced, and increasingly alone—shielding the cowardly West from Putin’s imperial war.

While Trump betrays Ukraine and its allies in favour of Putin, European leaders drift, delay, and distract themselves with relatively trivial domestic theatrics.

Meanwhile, Ukraine endures the brutal reality of a conflict that shows no sign of pausing for the holidays.

In a grotesque mockery of the Christmas season, Putin has intensified his assault on civilians. Russian missiles and drones now systematically target Ukraine’s power grid, plunging entire cities into freezing darkness as Siberian winds sweep across the country. This is a deliberate war strategy—one Putin has honed before in Syria, where civilian suffering was weaponised to keep a dictator in power long after legitimacy had crumbled.

The truth is stark: Europe is now locked in a Shadow war with Russia, and is the last line of defence capable of keeping Putin’s conquest contained where it stands.

If Ukraine survives as a sovereign state, it will be because Europeans choose to act decisively and now. After all, Washington under Trump will not rescue them, and Kyiv cannot hold indefinitely without far greater, meaningful militray support.

Yet even now, the warblind cling to the fantasy that Putin will stop at Ukraine. However, Putin's History, written in blood and betrayal, shows otherwise. Russia reneged on the Budapest Memorandum. Putin lied openly about his intentions before the 2022 invasion. To believe he will halt voluntarily is not diplomacy—it is self-deception and a clear recipe for self-destruction.

So as we celebrate Christmas, the question is not what Ukraine owes us for its support, but what we owe Ukraine for its sacrifice.

At a minimum, Europe must deploy a Sky Shield, which the Global Forecaster has been advocating for over the western half of Ukraine, to help protect Ukrainian civilians.

Simultaneously, we must resolve that strengthening Ukrainian air defence is not an escalation; it is a NATO strategic imperative and a humanitarian obligation. NATO, even without US support, has the systems and fighter aircraft to defeat the Russian air forces if push comes to shove.

But what we need more than anything is the manifestation of a new iron political will in the West—driven by the fear that if we do not stop Putin in Ukarine the European continent will be engulfed in a decade-long war - again.

Why has there been no serious effort to establish protected airspace over vital civilian infrastructure this winter, because no one dares to stand up to Putin?

But Putin respects only strength and exploits European weakness to feed his narrative of victory.

When the West hesitates, he advances. But faced with intention and force, he will back down like all bullies when outmatched.

And so, as weary Ukrainian soldiers stand guard through freezing nights and civilians shelter from nightly bombardments, Europe risks looking away for Christmas and 2026

But war observes no holidays and spreads like a virus.

That leaves Europe with only a single choice.

Either Europe finds its courage and acts, or it sinks further into moral and strategic decay, leading to our defeat and subjugation by Putin and his Autocratic Allies.

Protecting civilians, keeping the lights on, defending the innocent from terror—these are not acts of warmongering. They are acts of leadership, of conscience, of the civilisation Christmas was created to guide us towards.

If Ukraine falls, Europe will be next. And history will record that once again, tyranny advanced because democracies hesitated.

This Christmas, let us refuse to look away.

Let us resolve to increase our military and financial support for Ukraine dramatically in 2026, and arm ourselves to be able to defend them and ourselves from the danger spearheading from the East.

We, as Europeans, must find our collective courage and deliver unwavering support with urgency, so that next Christmas, Ukrainians may celebrate not in the cold and darkness to the sound of explosions, but in peace—and in freedom.

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Over recent weeks in our Murrinations, we have warned that China is now experiencing acute strategic compression from Japan and its regional neighbours, increasing the likelihood that Beijing could initiate an offensive conventional war out to the third island chain that we have named our Red Lightning scenario after my 2021 book.

We have outlined how the CCP has constructed a casus belli around Article 53 to go to war with Japan—another clear warning indicator.

Only yesterday, China declared it would take “forceful measures” in response to the newly approved U.S. arms-sales package to Taiwan, condemning the decision as a serious violation of the One China principle and interference in its internal affairs.

Beijing stated that the sale undermines regional stability and vowed to take retaliatory measures to defend its sovereignty and security interests.

As we have explained, the PLA Rocket Force has been configured for a cold-start posture, meaning that the West should not expect meaningful warning of an attack.

This raises the question: when might such a war begin?

Historically, aggressors choose moments of maximum advantage and minimum vigilance. The Yom Kippur War erupted on a religious holiday, Hamas struck Israel on 7 October during a Jewish festival, and Pearl Harbour was attacked on a Sunday.

Similarly, for the PLAN, the Christmas and New Year period presents a similarly vulnerable window when Western attention, staffing, and readiness are typically reduced.

Recognising that for this specific event Global Forecaster framework can identify only risk periods, not precise predictions, our systemic warning indicators would classify the upcoming holiday period as amber—a heightened danger phase requiring increased vigilance.

If you wish to learn more about our extensive strategic analysis on the extraordinary risks of conventional war in the Asian basin, then.

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Despite almost four years of industrial-scale warfare in Ukraine, and the most massive armament program of China, there remains an all-too-familiar pathology of war blindness in Britain and Western Europe—a refusal to recognise the true nature and magnitude of the threats we face or the strategic dynamics shaping them.

The assertion by some that Britain’s intelligence leadership is “sabre rattling” merely for articulating reality is symptomatic of a wider Western inability to accept we are already deep into a systemic and escalating conflict cycle.

Deterrence has failed because too many commentators and policymakers prefer comforting illusions over hard truths and the manifestation of demonstrable courage to face down aggression with hard power.

The same blindness colours the critique of Russian sanctions. They were never applied with the ruthless coherence required to cripple the Russian war machine, mainly because Europe entered this conflict economically entangled with Moscow and psychologically unprepared for confrontation.

The hard reality is that China seeks domination of the world and has encouraged and supported its close ally, Russia, to wage war on Ukraine and Europe.

The suggestion by Putin that Europe wants war with Russia is an inversion of reality. Europe emphatically does not seek war; Russia does. Moscow’s imperial ambitions, not European choices, drive the conflict.

To suggest European “provocation” triggered this war is to echo the very narratives Putin relies upon to justify aggression.

The real challenge is not provocation—it is capability. NATO must rebuild its warfighting capacity rapidly, but the idea that NATO has transformed into some Davos-inspired moral project is intellectually unserious.

NATO’s purpose remains what it has always been: collective defence of democratic Europe. It has been forced back into strategic clarity by Russia’s aggression, not by ideology. If Davos elites truly controlled global events, the rise of a militaristic, expansionist China would never have occurred.

Claims that Europe “cannot fight Russia” are recycled Putin propaganda. Even without U.S. air support, Europe’s combined 4th- and 5th-generation air power would decisively defeat Russia in a conventional fight.

Putin knows this, which is precisely why he has avoided escalation beyond his Shadow war. Trump knows it as well, which is why only Trump seeks to undermine NATO as part of his alignment with Putin.

Assertions that Europe is engineering a war or stumbling toward a Baltic “incident” misread historical dynamics. Western restraint—not aggression—is prolonging this conflict, and victory remains within reach if we choose to act with resolve.

Finally, the claim that America is being dragged into commitments against its own interests ignores the strategic reality: America’s core geopolitical challenge is China, and Russia is China’s indispensable junior partner. The two are inseparable.

Facing down Russia is not a distraction from U.S. strategy—it is an integral part of countering the Sino-Russian autocratic axis.

In sum, these arguments are a patchwork of misread history, echoes of Putin propaganda, and linear thinking.

 What is required today is not delusional moralising, denial, or conspiracy rhetoric, but strategic clarity: recognising that we are sleepwalking with the Warblind in an era of escalating conflict, that Russia and China are aligned, that deterrence has already failed, and that only decisive and urgent Western rearmament and unity can prevent the next stage of this war cycle.

To awake from the sleepwalk of the Blind-

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In the early summer of 2020, having picked the negative low of oil prices that marked the commencement of the C-wave of the current K-wave cycle, we warned that the long-standing pattern of declining interest rates was about to reverse. We anticipated a decade-duration rise that would push long-end rates above 16 percent by 2030. For the ill-informed, failing to recognise or prepare for such an interest paradigm shift in an over-indebted world would have created untold economic pain.

Thus, this was one of our market predictions that intersected with real-time geopolitical impacts no one could afford to miss, and its implications were—and remain—immense.

Over the past two years, the surge in long-end rates briefly paused, leading many to forget what the first stage of this new Bond bear market felt like.

However, the second phase of the great bear market is approaching.

To understand what comes next and how it will impact markets, our politics and you-

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Strategic Compression describes the critical moment when a rising power’s expansion collides with the resistance of established states, creating a tightening strategic environment that both constrains its ambitions and accelerates its willingness to use force. As rival empires, regional powers, and defensive coalitions push back, the rising state’s external room for manoeuvre shrinks at the same time internal pressures—economic strain, demographic stress, or declining legitimacy—intensify. This dual squeeze produces a dangerous “now-or-never” psychology in which leaders conclude that peaceful pathways are closing and that delay will worsen their strategic position.

Historically, such compression has been a powerful trigger of hegemonic wars: states do not lash out at the height of their strength, but rather when they fear their window of opportunity is about to close, prompting bold, risky attempts to break containment. Understanding this dynamic is therefore essential for predicting not only why wars occur, but when. In the context of China’s rise, Strategic Compression 2.0 provides the framework for identifying the point at which Xi Jinping—facing tightening geopolitical constraints and growing internal pressures—may choose to initiate a “breakout war” in the Asian basin.

By analysing China through this lens and mapping the dynamics of Strategic Compression onto the 108–112-year hegemonic war cycle, we can more accurately anticipate the timing and conditions that could trigger Beijing’s shift from competition to kinetic conflict.

GF Argues that warning signs are flashing Red!!

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and read our groundbreaking series

Strategic Compression as the Catalyst for Hegemonic Wars: Part 1:The Theory