Our Global Forecaster coverage of Iran’s war on Israel, starting on October 8th and culminating in the 12-day war, has been predictive and accurate from its commencement to the deployment of B2 over Iran. putting us in a good position to predict the next phase of the cumulation of this Israel-Iran war with American intervention.
1.0 Trump’s Forced Ceasefire was Disastrous, driven by his ego and not by strategic imperative, as it allowed Iran to continue advancing its nuclear programme and to rebuild its long range missile stocks, an outcome that has now clearly come to pass.
2.0 Trump Attempted to Fuel a Coup in Iran That Failed. Our assessment is that the arrival of approximately 5,000 Starlink terminals in Iran could not have occurred without at least tacit CIA support. These systems appear to have played a critical role in enabling communications, coordination and information dissemination during the recent U.S.-backed attempted uprising. That effort has reportedly resulted in the deaths of an estimated 50,000–60,000 protesters, both through street violence and subsequent mass executions.
3.0 The Inevitability of War with Iran.
The core forces driving an eventual war with Iran are structural and increasingly unavoidable. Central among them is Iran’s determination to deploy nuclear weapons on Fattah-1 missiles, which are capable of striking Israel. Such a scenario is existentially unacceptable to Israel and equally intolerable to the United States under Trump’s leadership. Layered onto this is the strategic opportunity to constrain and disrupt the flow of Iranian oil to China, weakening Beijing’s energy security. Added still is the humiliation of Iran’s leadership, which continued to violently suppress and kill protesters in the streets despite assurances to Trump that the repression would cease. Taken together, these factors make conflict increasingly inevitable, as we have previously outlined.
4.0 Peace Talks Will Not See Peace and Iran will not give up its nuclear program or its missiles.
5.0 Iran is being emboldened by China, which brings with it significant escalation risks.
6.0 America's Force Structure Demonstrates Trump's Intention to Remove the Mullahs from Power by Force. The USAF and USN forces deployments, along with the IDF, are configured for a multi week, high tempo air war in which we expect the Iranians to lash out at Gulf oil infrastructure and attempt to close the Straits of Hormuz. Much like Hitler’s last stand in Berlin, which is commonly referred to as the Battle of Berlin (April–May 1945), but, within Nazi leadership and historical discussion, it is often described as “Götterdämmerung” (Twilight of the Gods), a term drawn from Wagnerian opera that the Nazi regime used to frame its final collapse in mythic terms.
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