In Red Peril 43; Chinese Preparation For T-Day Invasion we warned that any snap PLAN exercise around Taiwan could quickly become a real invasion with no warning.
Thus every exercise had to be treated as potential invasion. For those of you that follow our real time prediction strings you will be aware that those conditions have been met.
In addition post the PLAN miliray parade as outlined in Xi’s Axis of Autocracy Moves to the Next Level which was a clear declaration of national intent and power we have warned of an escaltion in Chinese aggression.
Significantly the recent 10 October event of Taiwan’s National Day could be a key catalyst
Next there is the very aggressive Rare earth embargo.
All these fcators suggests that the probabilitys of an invasion have moved to as high as they have ever been.
Hence our Amber warning.
Below we have produced the Key Platinium Prediction strings linked to our analysis.CHOOSE YOUR SUBSCRIPTION | David Murrin
11 October 2025 China’s specialized amphibious assets are on the move,
The barges moving out to sea signals a possible escalation in military readiness. Three Shiuqiao-class landing barges—unique vessels designed to deploy as mobile piers enabling the rapid offloading of heavy equipment, vehicles, and troops onto unimproved beaches—have departed from Yuhuan on China’s eastern coast. Their movement suggests participation in upcoming People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) amphibious exercises, possibly linked to the ongoing major drills in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. The Shiuqiao class plays a crucial logistical role in any large-scale landing or blockade operation, effectively bridging the gap between China’s transport fleet and shore operations. Their deployment is a clear indicator of the PLA rehearsing complex invasion logistics, likely aimed at refining capabilities essential for a potential Taiwan invasion.
10 October 2025- new export controls on rare earth elements
In a move that echoes the US oil embargo on Japan in 1941 China announced new export controls on rare earth elements and related technologies on October 9, citing national security concerns. The expanded restrictions—covering mining, processing, and magnet-manufacturing know-how—will require export licences and may deny access to defense and semiconductor users abroad. The move, seen as a form of economic coercion, tightens Beijing’s grip on a critical global supply chain essential for EVs, wind turbines, and advanced weapons. It is expected to drive price spikes, production delays, and intensified Western efforts to diversify supply, while giving China greater leverage in trade and technology negotiations ahead of upcoming U.S.–China talks.
10 October 2025-Taiwan’s National Day,
Officially known as Double Ten Day (雙十節 / Shuangshi Jie), and it stands as one of the most important dates in the Republic of China (ROC) calendar. The day commemorates the Wuchang Uprising of October 10, 1911, which triggered the revolution that overthrew the Qing Dynasty and led to the founding of the Republic of China — the government that later relocated to Taiwan in 1949 following the Chinese Civil War.
In modern Taiwan, Double Ten Day is celebrated with military parades, flag-raising ceremonies, fireworks, and a presidential address, symbolizing the island’s democratic identity and national pride. Politically, it serves as a powerful assertion of Taiwan’s sovereignty and self-governance, an act that Beijing consistently rejects as separatist. Each year, the People’s Republic of China typically responds with heightened military activity or warnings, viewing the holiday as a provocation.
Thus, October 10 is not just a historical commemoration but also is a geopolitical flashpoint, highlighting the sharp contrast between Taiwan’s democratic values and Beijing’s authoritarian ambitions — and reaffirming Taiwan’s determination to maintain its freedom and international identity.
9 October, 2025 –PLAN carrier exercises off Taiwan
From October 10–20, the PLA will conduct major military exercises in the South China Sea, with entry strictly forbidden. The drills are expected to feature both the Shandong and the Fujian aircraft carriers, signaling China’s intent to demonstrate dual-carrier operations. While framed as routine, the scale and location of the exercise carry strategic messaging: it highlights China’s growing naval power, warns off U.S. and allied activity in contested waters, and indirectly pressures Taiwan. For Taipei, the danger lies not in immediate invasion, but in the PLA normalizing large-scale deployments close to Taiwan and rehearsing capabilities—such as carrier air wings, blockade tactics, and integrated strike operations—that could be employed in a future crisis. Note also teh amphibious fleets now based neraby in the Yangtze River Estuary.
High-resolution satellite imagery taken on October 6 depicts a large assemblage of Chinese amphibious assault vessels moored in the Yangtze River Estuary—suggesting elevated operational readiness within the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). Analysts identified a Type 071 landing platform dock (LPD) and a Type 075 landing helicopter dock (LHD), both key assets in any potential cross-Taiwan Strait invasion. The presence of a Type 076 Yulan-class assault ship—equipped with electromagnetic catapults and possibly undergoing sea trials—signals progressive enhancements in carrier-like capabilities.
Additional imagery shows three “Shuiqiao” amphibious transport barges docked at Yuhuan Naval Base. These modular barges feature deployable road ramps enabling armored vehicles to disembark directly onto coastal roads—bypassing beach defenses. While these platforms remain limited in number and would require robust air and naval escort to be effective, their deployment underscores China’s focus on refining mechanized amphibious techniques.
China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) is reportedly preparing to deploy the DF-17 hypersonic ballistic missile at its Brigade 616 base in Jiangxi Province, approximately 579 kilometers from Taiwan. This development, noted by experts, suggests a strategic shift in China’s missile capabilities, potentially enhancing its ability to target U.S. airbases and naval assets in the Western Pacific, as well as presenting new challenges to Taiwan’s defense posture.
Defense analysts, including Derrek Eveleth from the Center for Naval Analyses, indicate that the DF-17’s deployment could signify a move to bolster China’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities. The missile’s speed and maneuverability may complicate interception efforts (making interception all but impossible once the HGV is released), posing a significant threat to regional security dynamics. Taiwan’s military strategists are closely monitoring these developments, considering adjustments to their defense strategies to counteract the evolving missile threat.
© David Murrin 2025. All images courtesy of Getty Images. |