“THE MOST DANGEROUS TIME THE WORLD HAS SEEN IN DECADES.”
It is not a stretch to say our world looks very similar to the way it did just prior to World War II. That war stretched across the globe, drawing in all the major powers. It was an integrated chaos that left nearly no one untouched. What is happening now has the potential of becoming something similar. And that’s why respected voices from The Economist to Elon Musk are sounding the alarm. And why you need to be prepared for anything.
HEAR FROM THE WORLD'S TOP EXPERTS LIVE
Presenting Crisis & Chaos: The Changing World Order. This LIVE all-day online video event on Thursday, November 30, 2023, will bring together some of the most prominent military, geopolitical and economic experts. They will offer their candid analysis on the rapid political, economic and social transformations shaking the globe. Our speakers will answer our questions and moderated questions from you, our audience members. Expect to be challenged; expect to hear ideas you have never heard before; and expect to find clarity in an ever-more chaotic world.
If you are among the first 1,000 attendees to sign up to view Crisis & Chaos: The Changing World Order you will receive the early bird discounted price of $249. After the first 1,000 tickets have been sold the regular price of $499 will take effect. So hurry and get your ticket now!
David Murrin - Principal of Global Forecaster. With a long background as an asset manager, military historian, and strategic political/military Thinker. He is the Author of Breaking the Code of History which charted and then predicted the rise and fall of empires and wars, accurately predicting the path of major geopolitical events over the past two decades. Including the arrival of the Pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine.
Chris Parry - Formerly a Rear Admiral in the Royal Navy and a NATO commander, Dr Chris Parry runs a geopolitical forecasting company and is a leading strategic thinker, forecaster and author.
Understanding the geopolitics of the 21st century:
Polarisation, the global arms race, the rise of China and the Asian Super Empire.
The decline of US and Western Christian Super Empire.
Ukraine as a proxy war of major powers and the path to WWIII.
What this means for you today:
AI, mass unemployment, climate emergency and migration.
UK and US elections and how to fix broken political systems.
What this means for global economics and how to protect and grow your wealth
The Macro Conference is about showcasing Absa’s ability to help clients understand the world around them by bringing together global experts and utilising our thought leadership capabilities.
I watched your talk at the Oxford University Diplomatic Society on the 8th of November and found your insights into how China operates fascinating. Your fastidious research and unique way of looking at world systems and international interactions mean that your input into the debate as to whether China is an Existential Threat to Our Way of Life are extremely beneficial. Your scholarly work, and particularly your recent book ‘Red Lightning’, demonstrates your sound analysis and predictions of world operations.
Jenny Heath - Assistant to the President | Oxford Union Society
I found it very challenging and I've still been digesting the ideas, even trying to study the significance of commodity inflation to see how it reflects geopolitical trends following the importance you gave it in terms of predicting war. I would urge you to keep doing those talks because I think that they are very valuable for the audience and that type of discourse is a must to start changing things in a democracy.
I would suggest that you join the site to stay abreast of the world.
David gave a speech at the Tidworth base to the senior officers and men of the 1st Deep Recce Strike Brigade Combat Team (BCT) on Breaking the Code Of war and the new age of war as well as on the urgent need and stages required to lateralized thinking and subsequent process to maximize this new and innovative army formation’s development and deployment.
1st Deep Recce Strike Brigade Combat Team (BCT) will focus on the Army’s deep fight, combining deep fires with reconnaissance and the ability to integrate non-lethal effects. Deep Recce Strike BCT combines the Ajax’s formidable sensors with enhanced fires systems to provide long-range persistent surveillance for the coordination of deep fires. It will be established through the merger of 1st Artillery Brigade and 1st Armoured Infantry Brigade in summer 2022.
David applied his five-stage of Empire model to analyse the rise and fall of the Japanese Empire and the similarities to the rise of the Chinese empire today. Explaining its strategy and trajectory and predicting that this now militarised nation under the control of the CCP would soon seek to go to war with the West. He then went on to outline how such a conflict could unfold and it impact on markets and the response of the West.
Your presentation on China and its future impact on the world was very well received.
Erlend Fredriksen, conference organizer
I highly enjoyed your blunt and insightful presentation in Oslo. Especially the Biden bit, as well as a solid Guadalcanal reference. Refreshing end to an esg overloaded am.
David Rauch, Senior Portfolio Manager at Battery Park Capital
This Meeting brings together the CEOs and CIOs of the private banks and the larger wealth management firms. Its goal is to address the key strategic issues affecting these businesses and the industry as a whole. Obviously the world has been through a cataclysm which has affected all our lives - there is a lot to discuss.
Breaking The Code Of War - Foundation For The Study Of Cycles
“The presentation features concepts contained in David Murrin’s next book “Breaking the Code of War”, understanding, and predicting wars.
FSC members can preview a recent exclusive FSC interview which covers foundation principles of Mr. Murrin’s analysis framework.”
David Murrin is a polymath known for his remarkably prescient predictions and theories. His career has focussed on recurring patterns of history and using them to try to predict the future for markets and society in turbulent times.
In his 2009 book, Breaking the Code of History, originally conceived as an investment thesis in 2002, he predicted the hegemonic challenge of China that would lead to WW3 by 2025 and that the next great viral epidemic would originate in China from a PLAN weapons laboratory.
David founded Global Forecaster in 2019 to both warn of the inevitable series of entropic waves that would engulf the West and to advise on ways to mitigate and survive them. David’s advisory and speaking work is based on his direct investment experience of 25 years as a Macro CIO combined with a framework that can be used to explain and qualify strategic and investment decisions, while avoiding being subsumed by unconscious collective thought processes.
Breaking The Code Of War - Higher Command and Staff Course
“The presentation features concepts contained in David Murrin’s next book “Breaking the Code of War”, understanding, and predicting wars.
FSC members can preview a recent exclusive FSC interview which covers foundation principles of Mr. Murrin’s analysis framework.”
David Murrin is a polymath known for his remarkably prescient predictions and theories. His career has focussed on recurring patterns of history and using them to try to predict the future for markets and society in turbulent times.
In his 2009 book, Breaking the Code of History, originally conceived as an investment thesis in 2002, he predicted the hegemonic challenge of China that would lead to WW3 by 2025 and that the next great viral epidemic would originate in China from a PLAN weapons laboratory.
David founded Global Forecaster in 2019 to both warn of the inevitable series of entropic waves that would engulf the West and to advise on ways to mitigate and survive them. David’s advisory and speaking work is based on his direct investment experience of 25 years as a Macro CIO combined with a framework that can be used to explain and qualify strategic and investment decisions, while avoiding being subsumed by unconscious collective thought processes.
Feedback
“The Higher Command and Staff Course prepares leaders to fight and win against the UK’s enemies and adversaries, typically training the very top cohort of UK defence and security officials. The Course hears from distinguished speakers from the UK and across the world.
David Murrin presented his theories on forecasting global warfare, which were very warmly received. David’s presentation was one of the most thought provoking sessions on the course. It generated significant debate and discussion, and without doubt, it will continue to feature on future courses.”
Colonel Colin Munce
Course Director
Higher Command and Staff Course
Defence Academy of the United Kingdom
This session is brought to you by CFA UK’s Fixed Income special interest group
We are potentially seeing the end of the US hegemony and the dollar.
The philosopher George Santana once said “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”. The lessons from history are often ignored in modern economic and financial analysis.
In this webinar former trader, hedge fund manager and author David Murrin will draw on his research in Breaking the Code of Historyto explain why he believes we are seeing decline of both the United States and Europe. Why covid and the Ukraine has likely accelerated this and we are about to enter a much more volatile and dangerous world.
Where recordings are made, these are a member benefit that are accessed through the member-only platform, CFA UK Discover.
Timings
Registration: 16:55
Event: 17:00 - 18:00
CPD Points: 1.00
Speakers
David Murrin, Author, Consultant and Public Speaker
David Murrin has over 30 years experience researching long term patterns in history and using them to predict the future geopolitical dynamics and financial markets. He developed a unique model for human systems and cyclical behaviour in nations, empires and organisations.
David started his career in the oil industry as a geophysicist before joining J.P.Morgan proprietary trading operation in the 1980s.He founded his first hedge fund in 1993, before cofounding Emergent Asset Management in 1997 serving as Chief Investment Officer until 2014. David is now a full time author, consultant and public speaker.
Click here to view our event terms and conditions.
Future-proofing your Business at a time of Historic Geopolitical Uncertainty
This Meeting brings together heads of fund selection and fund research from the top 100 UK investment companies (FUM >£1b) across both wealth management and advisory.
· It's good to hear some unconventional opinions to challenge your own thinking
· Very confident presentation - although it was dark and I did not entirely agree, it is great to have such speakers who have conviction in their views
A Meeting bringing together Chief Executive Officers and Chief Operating Officers from substantial asset management firms – both retail and institutional.
The goal is to provide a platform for these very senior men and women to address the big issues they are grappling with. The Meeting is Chatham House and thus participants are encouraged to speak openly and frankly and share insights and learning in the knowledge that any comments they might make will be non-attributable.
The PFF is pleased to announce that the webinar, hosted by our sponsor, Greenberg Traurig, will be discussing “The great shift ahead in geopolitics and global markets”.
David will be talking about the phase three equity decline that will wipe out equity value, in asset management holdings and pensions funds! A must listen.
This is to be held tomorrow, Thursday 7th May. Speakers are myself and Rob Hersov of Smutby. This is a paid event and costs £50 to register and listen.
Please WhatsApp “I’m Paying” to +27795804916 to buy your David Murrin Tickets!
William Shawcross CVO invites you to join us for
a VIRTUAL breakfast briefing
Historical Context and Impact of COVID-19 on the Global Economy and the Global Markets
with UnHerd Insight's special guest expert, David Murrin, Author of “Breaking the Code of History”, and our Senior Fellow of Political Risk, Professor Matthew Goodwin and our APAC colleagues at Metis Intelligence
Date: Tuesday 24 March 2020 Time: 09:00am-10:00am
Register for the Webinar Here
As confirmed cases of COVID-19 escalate throughout the world, governments are pressured to balance their priorities of protecting the health of their citizens and the health of the economy and the markets. This UnHerd Insight briefing will examine short-term market and economic impact as well as the longer term geopolitical implications of the outbreak. In addition, we will consider second order effects including the oil price war. Chaired by William Shawcross and Prof. Matthew Goodwin, and our APAC colleagues at Metis Intelligence the presentation by David Murrin and subsequent discussion will provide a forum to examine current conditions in light of their historical context.
UnHerd Insight
UnHerd Insight is a new leader in global business and political intelligence. Find out more about our work here.
David Murrin has been described as a polymath and his career of more than three decades in major investment banks and hedge funds has been focussed on finding and understanding collective human behavioural patterns including deep-seated ‘patterns’ in history and the using them to predict the future for geopolitics and markets in today’s turbulent times. He has a remarkable track record. David’s advisory work today is based on his direct investment experience combined with a framework that can be used to explain and qualify decisions within an investment team, aid risk assessment, and reduce biases in collective investment decisions.
William Shawcross CVO is a British writer and commentator and the former Chairman of the Charity Commission for England and Wales. Mr Shawcross was a Member of Council of the Disasters Emergency Committee; board member of the International Crisis Group; and a member of the UN High Commission for Refugees’ Informal Advisory Group. His previous books include the official biography of the Queen Mother and Justice and the Enemy: Nuremberg, 9/11, and theTrial of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed.
Professor Matthew Goodwin is an academic, bestselling writer and speaker known for his work on political volatility, risk, populism, British politics, Europe, elections and Brexit. Professor Goodwin has advised financial institutions around the world on political risk. During the spring of 2016, he went against the grain by correctly predicting and advising clients that Britain was about to vote for Brexit. The Telegraph recently described him as “one of the few academics to be vindicated by the political trends of the past few years”. He has consulted more than 300 organisations around the globe, from the UK Prime Minister's Office to the President of Germany, US State Department, and the European Commission.
Metis Intelligenceconsultancy provides actionable strategic intelligence for growth opportunities in the Asia Pacific region. With its unique framework to analyse political, socio-economic and technological drivers of change it identifies ideas for growth and investment for both investors and corporates.
Here we consider the application of history in predicting outcomes. Can you invest in these predictions?
David Murrin, geophysicist, investment banker, hedge fund manager, historian and futurologist addresses the following:
“Applying the code of history to inform the future: what can we learn about current events?’’
Location: The Coffee Room, The Cavalry and Guards Club, 127 Piccadilly, LONDON W1J 7PX.
Qualifying Bullet Points:
David Murrin, after extensive study of multiple empires, has developed a methodology to interpret historical events in the context of an imperial cycle
Shifts in power between empires are the outcome of a cycle which repeats itself:
1. The Five Phase Life Cycle of Empires - a model of the growth and decline of civilisations - can provide a way both to understand history’s ‘big picture’ and to accurately assess current and future geopolitical environments. It is similar to a Gaussian curve - a statistical probability distribution of data around an average. Empires are not all the same, of course, but the majority of them exhibit a similar distribution, peaking at about 60-70 percent along their life cycles.
2. The Five Stages of Empire are as follows:
i Regionalisation
ii Ascension to Empire;
iii Maturity;
iv Overextension;
v Decline and Legacy.
Let’s look at two different scenarios in the context of David’s structure:
Firstly, let’s look at Civil War- as David explains this often occurs during the regionalisation. The current Brexit saga (2016-?) displays similar social drivers to the English Civil War, 1642-1648.
Secondly, let’s consider an example of Great Hegemonic Power Shift, by comparing and contrasting the events of the late 19th Century when Imperial Germany challenged Imperial Britain to the current China v USA global struggle.
Expansion of each Example
Firstly, let’s look at Civil War- as David explains this often occurs during the Regionalisation. The current Brexit saga displays similar social drivers to the English Civil War, 1642-1648:
1 The English Civil War was an important event in the history and development of Britain.
i It had a great effect on the development of the military, the economy and the establishment of political parties
• Economy: it was an adrenaline shot to the heart of the City of London, forcing through change and innovation. Thereafter, capital was used in a different way: it enabled a wider cohort of bourgeoisie and new nobles to invest and trade
• Military: Cromwell established an advanced army and navy
• The New Model Army- which was both properly trained and equipped. Spending on defence was an incremental fillip to the economy. However, it remained hierarchical: officers’ commissions had to be bought which left them as the preserve of the wealthy elite. This acted as a brake on the system
• New Model Navy-this was arguably the more remarkable consequence of the Civil War. It laid the foundation of meritocracy in Britain. The Navy needed a plethora of technical skills. If you showed ability as a midshipman or even as a sailor, you would make it to Captain from the deck.
• Political Parties: The first Tory Party dates from the Civil War- gradually emerging as a movement from a reaction to the excesses of the reformers. The Whigs were the more dominant Parliamentary cohort emerging from the Civil War. The issue which led to political demarcation was the Restoration. The former group had more sympathy with the Jacobites and the latter with the strict enforcement of a constitutional monarchy.
2 Brexit: i The full future impact of Brexit is an unknown, but a few of the following points should be considered:
• The creation of The National Lottery under Sir John Major led to strategic investment in areas such as UK Sport (founded 1997), and subsequently, some amazing sporting results. The emergence of a new national energy was manifest by Gold Medal tables. UK Sport picked up the baton after GB garnered a paltry single GB Gold medal in 1996:
• 2000- 11 Gold Medals
• 2004 - 9
• 2008- 19
• 2012- 29
• 2016- 27
• This investment has driven a strong national identity and a pride in GB, which transcends party politics. It has also driven expectations in other fields from politics to other sports, and from the economy to defence. This energy is a manifestation of the forces which led to the Brexit vote.
• The rise of new political figures such as Nigel Farage – without the benefit of major party funding- is another example of an agent for change. It is David v Goliath, when one considers the weight of money and infrastructure he faced. Whatever side of the debate one occupies, Farage twice forced the Tory Party to react in an unprecedented manner: firstly, the admission by David Cameron that a Brexit vote had to happen and secondly as a catalyst for the election of Boris Johnson; the Tory Party had to react in order to survive
• It’s not just the Tories who face an existential crisis. Labour will also be forced to adapt by multiple new political forces. Recent analysis sees the Labour Party losing seats and influence to the Brexit Party. So, if there were a General Election in Q4 2019 analysts see up to 65 Labour seats being lost to the Brexit Party, 25 seats to the LibDems and up to 10 to the Tories. That’s 100 seats out of a current total of 229! So, both major political parties are well and truly on the edge • Brexit, which some describe as the world’s first bloodless civil war has unleashed unstoppable change
Secondly, let’s consider an example of Great Hegemonic Power Shift. Let’s compare and contrast the events of the late 19th Century when Imperial Germany challenged Imperial Britain to the current China v USA tension.
1 1914 was the result of Germany challenging Britain - the new versus the old and a failed deterrence. The failure of liberal policies championed by Lloyd George encouraged conflict. Germany saw Britain’s near catastrophe in the Boer War and increased its arms build. The op
2 2019: China challenging America for Hegemonic power:
i President Obama’s liberal policies encouraged Chinese expansion at a staggering rate
ii President Trump has reversed much of the Obama’s giveaways
iii So, in 2019, President Trump is determined to meet the Chinese challenge head-on
iv Trade war will continue as it’s a ritual locking of horns.
v Naval shipbuilding is the now a top priority in the USA (similar to the Dreadnought race pre-WWI)
vi The probability of a naval confrontation USA/China is growing
vii US and Chinese leaders will drive arms manufacturing through the next global downturn
Some Related Reading
A The Five Stages of Empire are as follows:
i Regionalisation: Early in the growth of a regional power, a struggle occurs between various states within the same geographical vicinity, with the victor amalgamating all of the others. (Rome, for example, absorbed other city-states before going on to control the whole of the Italian Peninsula.) This enlarged state then becomes a player in the game of nascent empires, aiming to expand further until it attains imperial status.
ii Ascension to empire: When a regional power successfully absorbs a number of similar rivals, it then spreads out, projecting its power further. This process marks the ascension stage. Once again, smaller entities are amalgamated and absorbed (e.g. Macedonia and Greece, Rome and Carthage).
iii Maturity: In the cycle of empire, a phase of equilibrium and stability naturally follows a period of conquest and expansion - assuming the borders of the new empire are well defined and well defended, and the administrative system highly organised: this is the maturity stage of empire. Without gains from conquest, a stable economy is required to generate enough revenue both to sustain a defensive army and to maintain civil harmony.
iv Overextension: Overextension signifies the onset of gradual decline, beginning at levels apparent only to the most astute observers and ending in financial disasters and military challenges. At some point an empire’s success induces complacency, arrogance, corruption and other manifestations of decay, as the comforts of civilised society give rise to expectations by the middle classes that the status quo will be maintained. The transformation of an empire from ‘barbarian’ to ‘civilised’ is now complete, and over time it will become ripe for domination by another aspirant. In the early stages of overextension, the cost to the economy of running an empire is no longer compensated for by revenue. The empire then begins to increase its debt burden, preventing a rise in military expenditure precisely at a time when it is most threatened by new challenges.
v Decline and legacy: For an empire in the final throes of overextension, the cost of power vastly outweighs its economic benefit. Imperial sustainability becomes increasingly unfeasible, and the system rapidly begins to disintegrate. Although the signs would have been present during the overextension stage, other great powers would, for the most part, not have begun to recognise the waning empire’s vulnerability until the final stage of decline and legacy, when external and internal dynamics deteriorate at an alarming rate. Enemies on the periphery then awaken to the progressive ebbing of vitality, and become emboldened by incremental successes that can soon escalate. The old empire is now prey for other regional powers in the ascendant. The rate of decline surprises the world as a formerly iconic empire collapses.
B Civil war often attends rising empires that are approaching the end of their regionalisation stage:
In each case below Civil Wars resulted in new leaders and new growth forces:
A 1642-48: English Civil War
B 1861-1865: American Civil War led to: consolidation, finance and trade. Demographics and the forces of innovation saw the North (ideas, new technologies, concentration of population and talent) set against the South (wealth, resources, more established wealthy elite). Many of the same forces at play in the English Civil War were at play here too.
C 1917: The Russian revolution: the removal of the Tsars empowered a new cohort of leaders, harnessing a large population to a dream, which played on making them feel relevant, giving them the impression of equality.
D 1866: Austro-Prussian War: Consequence was Prussian dominance over German states
E 1933: Third Reich was driven by: the empowerment of a ‘cohort of corporals’, who filled the vacuum of WW1’s destruction of the German leadership class, and led to a second global challenge.
F 1927-1949: In 1949 the culmination of China’s communist revolution empowered a new cohort to ‘make China great again’ after an era of foreign occupation and dilution of national identity.
David Murrin
Fascinated by military history from an early age
Studied physics and geophysics at university
Worked in the jungles of Papua New Guinea – a tribal revelation of human collective behaviour
Joined trading floor of JP Morgan- same behaviours observed in post-industrial humans!
Started first hedge funds in 1993.
9/11- the dawn of a new paradigm
David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business, amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands, engaging with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River and exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. Not only did he keep his head, but it was his work with the PNG tribespeople that catalysed his theories on collective human behaviour.
In the early 1980’s David embarked on a new career joining JP Morgan in London whereby watching his colleges on the trading floors he quickly identified that modern society also behaved collectively. He was thy sent to New York on JPM’s highly- rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in the London, he traded FX, Bonds, equities and commodities on JPM’s first European Prop desk. In ’91, he founded and managed JPM’s highly successful European Market Analysis Group, developing new behavioural investment techniques, which were utilised to deploy and manage risk at the highest level of the bank.
In 1993 David founded his first hedge fund Apollo Asset Management, and in 1997 co-founded Emergent Asset Management as CIO. His primary role was overseeing trading across all fund products, as well as being particularly active in the firm’s private equity business, He co-founded Emvest, Emergent’s African land fund in 2008 and acted as its Chairman until its sale from the group in 2011. In addition, through Emergent’s Advisory Business, David was responsible for the critical fund raising for Heritage Oil allowing it to expand significantly by investing in its Uganda exploration programme. He took full control of Emergent in 2011 combining his management of the Geomacro fund with the role of Chief Executive Officer until 2014.
David has been described as a polymath and his career of more than three decades has been focused on finding and understanding collective human behavioural patterns including deep-seated ‘patterns’ in history and then using them to try and predict the future for geopolitics and markets in today’s turbulent times. He has a remarkable track record.
David’s advisory and speaking work today is based on his direct investment experience combined with a framework that can be used to explain and qualify decisions within an investment team, aid risk assessment, and reduce biases in collective investment decisions.
David is a keen racing and classic yachtsman, who co-founding the British Classic Yacht Club in 2002 which has grown over the past decade into a substantial organisation. He was the vice and then Commodore of the Club up until 2019. Visit Zulu Yachting for more information
David has written two books; Breaking the Code of History and Lions Led By Lions.
References and Context:
1. David is a keen observer of the impact of right brain thinking (creative and asymmetric- aka lateral- thinking) versus left brain (iterative and process driven). He sees the function of global political leadership as a pendulum which swings between these cranial hemispheres: ossified iterative structures sow the seeds of their own destruction by failing to react to demographic change or innovation. Thus, right brain thinking creates change and new opportunity, but over time it will be superseded by process, which becomes increasingly ossified until it declines.
2. https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/breaking-the-code-of-history
In this prescient book of astonishing breadth – the culmination of decades of personal research across a wide range of disciplines – Murrin offers a conclusion as brilliant in its simplicity as it is complex in its workings. Human behaviour, he argues, is not random, but determined by specific, quantifiable and predictable patterns fuelled by our need to survive and prosper. As individuals and collectively, we have been governed for thousands of years by unconscious responses that repeatedly mire us in catastrophe.
3. Review:’’ I saw the author speak a couple of months ago in a panel interview at a conference, and was impressed. It's rare, but very refreshing, to see a financial "expert" or commentator who has actually read about history and the markets further back than the last few years. David has done this and much more, and seems to be a real polymath.’’
4. https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/book/lions-led-by-lions
‘’The story starts with the arms’ race leading up to the outbreak of war. Although the Royal Navy received the resources it needed to ensure continued domination of the high seas, Britain’s politicians neglected the preparations of the potential combatants on the European continent. When the BEF deployed to northern France in 1914 it had 150,000 men, compared to more than 4 million in the armies of Germany and France, between which it was sandwiched. The failure of the British political leadership to prepare a British reserve army for deployment in 1915 meant that by the time it arrived in 1916 for the Battle of the Somme it joined a weakened French army and faced a battle-hardened German army. As such the BEF was forced to learn its lessons the hard way, on the battlefield.’’
5. https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/media/trade-war-will-bring-debt-crisis-wi…
David will be explaining the underlying dynamics and key waypoints of Brexit, the leadership failure and why the outcome is inevitable. He will explore the Super Western Empire moving towards its final phase of decline and the strategic competition and trade war developing between America and China and the role of India in this tussle by using his unique geopolitical models. David and will then discuss his prognosis for key global markets.
Citywide Audience feedback 8.56/10
Really interesting and thought-provoking
Great vision and presentation skills
Sensible thought-provoking well done
Controversial but good. strong Brexit views
A lot of food for thought
Refreshingly different albeit slightly scary predictions!
A man with a similar view of the world delighted to see I am not the only one
“David did such an amazing job delivering a keynote speech opening up the Future of Mining Forum event in London. David gave a very thought-provoking speech which kept the audience on the edge of their seats throughout the whole presentation. The talk was quite different from any other business presentation we have ever had.
David was not only very knowledgeable but also came across as deeply passionate about the topic of the discussion. David challenged beliefs and perspectives of many in the audience which lead to a great debate. We overheard multiple conversations at the reception breaks discussion David’s presentation. Guests felt challenged but inspired”.
Montfort Communications is an international business which conceives and executes successful reputation management strategies for some of today’s most high-profile corporations, organizations and individuals.
Actionable Scenarios for The Future A view of Modern Geopolitics today based on Macrosystems dynamics.Mainly the first degree effects of a rising China and its challenge to America, the dynamics of Brexit, the commodity cycle and the effects of climate change and the AI revolution.
David will be appearing on CNBC at 08.30hrs on Friday 8th February talking about his latest book, Lions led by Lions, about WW1 and the clear analogy with the military rise of Germany and today relevant geopolitics.
"David is a deeply passionate and knowledgeable historian. He gave a superb talk at Le Rosey on the turning points of World War One and the similar geopolitical situation facing world leaders then and now. He very much inspired our young historians”
Lions Led By Lions-Commemorating WW1 through understanding (80mins)
1. Introduction
2. The build-up to WW1
3. The War at Sea
4. The land War
a. Phase 1 The German opening attack
b. Phase 2 Deadlock
c. Phase 3 The German spring offensive
d. Phase 4 The BEF and French Offensives
5. Aftermath
6. Reflections; Is it happening again?
7. Changing the Future
Bringing WW1 To Life (60 mins)
1. The Battle of Jutland
2. The role of the tank as a war-winning weapon
3. The Battle of Amines-The turning of the tide
David Murrin has been described as a polymath. His 30-year career has focused on finding deep-seated patterns in history and using them to understand and accurately predict the future in both today’s turbulent geopolitical dynamics and financial markets. To achieve this he has developed a unique model for human systems and their cyclical behavior that is applicable to empires, nations, military organisations and companies. This five-stage roadmap enhances understanding and decision-making and has a remarkable track record of predicting events over the past two decades.
He has a special interest in military history and the current global military balance in the new global arms’ race, which he perceives as a reflection of today’s major global geopolitical shifts.
He started his career in Papua New Guinea in the oil exploration business. In 1986 he joined JP Morgan developing, testing and applying his theory to great success for seven years. Since 1993 David has built and run and many companies from the first Emerging Market hedge funds to the largest agricultural Fund in Africa.
Post 9/11, recognising that the world had changed in an instant, David combined his interests in military history, geopolitics and finance into a unified geopolitical model. This cumulated in 2011 with the publishing of Breaking the Code of History, which highlights the key process in human social structures that impact on today’s changing world.
David speaks widely and internationally on themes from his book and applies the key principals and predictions to all aspects of the businesses that he is closely involved with. He is Global Fellow of PS21, the Project for the Study of the 21st Century.
David offers audiences powerful practical insights into the forces for transformation of the world’s power systems, challenging entrenched assumptions and sharing astute practical examples from history and current turbulent realities.
The JIC Autumn is an exclusive event aimed at top-tier professional investors and fund selectors. The majority of the conference comprises boardroom sessions with leading fund managers, whilst the optional fringe sessions provide access to fascinating external speakers. David will be an external speaker on the main platform session.
The Sector AM annual investor conference is coming up on 14th June, with an impressive line-up of speakers on the following subjects:
Artificial Intelligence: delivering professional nirvana or making us all redundant?
Geo-political instability, along with the rise of China: unknowable unknowns or déjà vu?
A credit-doped economy, yet again: can anything be done to avert the next financial crisis?
Cognitive biases and behavioural heuristics: detrimental evolutionary residues or superior decision-making tools?
All widely debated topics, some ideas churned over and over until they become mainstream narrative. Which is why we want to hear a different take, from thinkers and investment practitioners who are not afraid to challenge the received wisdom. It will be informative, challenging, inspiring.
David will give a geopolitical overview: Examining the key forces shaping political risk & the implication for prudential policy and investment
David will be speaking for an audience of around 80 FDs and finance professionals from the real estate profession.
“ I saw David speak at the Hong Kong Super Return conference where his unique approach to understanding the geopolitical landscape generated a great deal of excitement. I later invited him to speak at a property industry event in London and I am delighted to report that the way he linked global politics and economics to our own lifecycles really captured people’s imagination. The feedback was excellent."
Rob Short, Managing Partner, Lanham Hall
"I thought the session was excellent. David was a very good speaker and slightly provocative which made a great change from a lot of our events."
If by any chance you are in Cape Town this Friday evening, Invest Africa would love for you to join us at the Chairman's Bishopscourt home. David Murrin is the author of "Breaking the Code of History". In this book, David argues that human behaviour is not random, but determined by specific, quantifiable and predictable patterns fueled by our need to survive and prosper. He applies the theories in his books to modern day events to make predictions on geopolitics. As you may know, David Murrin predicted both Brexit and Trump well in advance of almost anyone. David also speaks at many top events and conferences and will only be in Cape Town for two days.
"Many thanks for speaking for us in Cape Town last week, I have had some AMAZING feedback from those who attended – they loved it!"
"It was a real pleasure to meet you in person and I’d like to thank you for helping to make this year’s conference such a success. Your presentation was brilliant and the audience clearly loved it – it certainly got a lot of people talking and thinking differently. Just the result we wanted!"
The Super Return Asia Conference is the Premier International Private Equity & Venture Capital Event in Asia. David will be a keynote speaker on the main conference day. He will give a geopolitical overview and examine the key forces shaping polictiacl risk and the implications for prudential policy and investment.
"As for me, you were the most THOUGHT-PROVOKING speaker so far at the SuperReturn conference!"
Adj. Prof. Dr. Martin Haemmig, Center for Technology and Innovation Management
"I thought it was a very interesting and engaging speech with a full audience in the Q&A session!"
"David was superb!! He kept our members and guests engaged, made them feel like they were part of the conversation, and answered the most challenging questions. Everyone was amazed at David's passion and his love for his work. A truly unique view of the world and an inspiration to us all at Invest Africa."
"David spoke to forty of our most important clients at a recent “send-off” dinner for one of our Directors moving to South Africa.
We wanted a speaker who would be insightful, unconventional and a little controversial in their articulation of the issues and opportunities currently facing a country in respect of which a charged and diverse set of views exist. It is a tribute to David’s excellence as a speaker that he was all of these things. Concurrently he was also both very credible, and sufficiently funny to engage his audience absolutely at the end of an excellent (and long) dinner. We are already laying plans to work with him again."
SuperReturn Africa is the continent's largest private equity conference. It is in its 6th year and attracts 550+ attendees from around the world. David's keynote speaking slot is on "How to evaluate African geopolitical risk over the next decade"
"The delegates enjoyed your speech very much. We would be pleased to have you speak again at one of our events. Your speech was captivating and original. Thank you for your participating and it was a pleasure working with you."
David will be delivering a keynote speech about the Impacts of China on Africa during a lunch time event for the members of Invest Africa.
"We thoroughly enjoyed hosting you and we have had excellent feedback from the guests! Everyone found it engaging, inspiring and incredible thought-provoking."
David will serve as a presenter during the Short Course in Ag Fundamentals on the topic of Why Now is the Right Time to Allocate to Agriculture and he will also be included in the Short Course Questions & Answers Panel afterwards.
"We at Global AgInvesting were greatly appreciative of David's insightful and impactful presentation that he delivered to our audience at the London event in December, 2014."
Sarah Linn Reedy, Content Coordinator, Global AgInvesting
The day will feature a keynote speech from David, author of the much-talked about book, "Breaking the Code of History", where he will present the perils facing mankind and how we, as humans, can break age-old patterns including destructive cycles by using insight derived from data.
" David spoke for 45 minutes to our clients and it was simply remarkable. He took us all on a thrilling roller coaster through history, around the world a few times and back again. His unique perspectives and insights are a must for anyone who wants to try and look into the future so we, as individuals, and as business leaders, are successful. "
David will speak about 'Leadership in the Western World'
Explanation of the 5 stages of Empire model, to understand the rise and fall of systems
The different types of Hero (Military, Thought, Political, Peoples)
Identification of specific types of heroes and their relationship on the empire curve with specific examples
Why empires and systems collapse as the quality of leadership declines
Comparison between the Heroes of America and Britain
What is good leadership ?
What has happened to western leadership?
"We would like to thank you most kindly for your excelent presentation at our Institutional Seminar in Luxembourg. Your speech was much appreciated by all present and contributed significantly to te success of our annual event."
David delivered a keynote speech for a mixed public of oil & gas/energy corporate and investors on geopolitics of the Middle East and Africa and key security issues effecting transacting business in the region.
The seminar is intended specifically for the Oil & Gas Helicopter community and is an opportunity to meet and discuss the latest Oil & Gas industry trends, market developments, support and technical challenges that helicopter industry is facing. The target audience includes Helicopter Operators, Oil & Gas Companies Aviation experts, Safety Aviation Advisors, etc. 100 participants are expected from all over the world.
David's speech "The Geopolitics of Helicopters" covered the following topics:
Geopolitics/Investment thesis based on his book Breaking the Code of History
5 Stages of the Empire Model in the context of past Empires, and today's world
Application of the 5 Stages Model to better understand the next 10 years
Understanding the market of helicopters and the sources of design innovations
"David Murrin addressed a public of worldwide representatives from the helicopter industry, and his presentation has been perceived extremely insightful, funny and intriguing! it's incredible how building a successful business is mirrored in the rise and fall of empires. It was a pleasure to have David as a speaker, we do highly recommend him as a keynote speaker for any event!"
IMN is proud to bring their global portfolio of unparalleled investment management conferences back to Cape Town, South Africa. Taking place August 29-30, the 4th Annual African Cup of Investment Management conference will bring together the leading players in the African intstitutional and retail investement communities. This year's conference continues to expand, with comprehensive coverage of not only South Africa, but the continent as a whole, including prominent figures representing Namibia, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Nigeria, Botswana, Kenya and mony other.
David's keynote speaking slot covered the following topics:
Geopolitics/Investment thesis based on his book Breaking the Code of History
5 Stages of the Empire Model in the context of past Empires, and today's world
Application of the 5 Stage Model to better understand the next 10 years
Investment Opportunities in Africa
“I would highly recommend David Murrin as a keynote speaker to any event organizers putting together conferences or meetings for high-level executives. His presentation, “The Geopolitics of Modern Africa for Investors,” at our African Cup of Investment Management conference in Cape Town, South Africa, was a fascinating and entertaining session that proved extremely popular with our attendees. David spoke to a packed room of representatives from across Africa’s finance industry, and his presentation was singled out as a highlight of the day-and-a-half conference by several attendees. It was a pleasure to meet David and I would enthusiastically recommend him as a keynote speaker.”
Tim Bailey, Conference Producer, Information Management Network (IMN)
"A short note to thank you for your passionate participation in the African Cup! The feedback on your session has been excellent - well done!
Helena Conradie, CFA, Satrix
"I was at the 4th Annual African Cup of Investments Management conference 2013. After listening to his speech/presentation, from that day he is my mentor. I am interested in persuying the same career."
The Royal College of Defence Studies (RCDS) is an internationally-renowned institution and component of the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom.
Their mission is: "To prepare senior officers and officials of the UK and other countries and future leaders from the private an public sectors for high responsibilities in their respective organisations, by developing their analytical powers, knowlegde of defence and international security, and stategic vision".
David's speech "Leadership, Heroes and Empires" covered the following topics:
The 5 Stages of the empire model to better understand the rise and fall of systems
The different types of heroes: military, philosophical, political and human heroes
Identification of specific types of heroes and their relationship on the empire curve with examples
Definition of good leadership
Why empires and systems collapse as the quality of leadership declines
“David addressed the Royal College of Defence Studies for the first time in 2013. His presentation on the impact of Leaders in the historical cycles of empires provided a compelling and thoughtful proposition. David’s analysis is provocative, challenging and highly persuasive, and his talk generated much interest among the 90 Members who represent over 50 countries. Without doubt, he provided one of the genuine highlights of this high-quality 2013 Course.”
Nick J Caplin CB, Major General, Senior Directing Staff (Army), Royal College of Defence Studies
We will have lots of special guest speakers including, obviously, Party Leader Nigel Farage and we will also be celebrating our spectacular success in the County Council elections last week.
David'speech "Breaking the Code of British Leadership" will be the second speaking slot after lunch and addresses the following topics:
The 5 Stages of the Empire Model in the context of past Empires, and today's World
Britain and the EU on the the curve of Empire
A sense of urgency
The role of Margaret Thatcher as national hero
Should we have a new constitution in Britain?
Britain's defence policy, or lack of it
The steps the UKIP needs to enact to become electable
David Murrin was the Guest Speaker at the Financial Breakfast organised by the Edmond de Rothschild Group at Top Marques Monaco on April 19th 2013.
About 250 selected guests gathered to listen to Mr. Murrin’s theories on the rise and fall of empires, alliances for a new world order and on where best to invest nowadays. His speech based on his book "Breaking the Code of History" covered:
The 5 Stages of the Empire Model in the context of past Empires, and today's World
Application of the 5 Stages Model to better understand the next 10 years for Geopolitics
The Commodity Cycle
the Decline of the West and Rise of China
“Thought provoking! It is impossible to not be intrigued by the relevance and evidence of David Murrin’s theories”, said Top Marques’ Director Steven Saltzman. “We are thrilled that the Edmond the Rothschild Group has invited Mr Murrin to our show”.
"The conference in Monaco was very enlightening and so close to my own opinions, which is what I told David on the day. I thoroughly enjoyed it and it quite literally made my day. " Capt Fabien Roche, Vice-President Operations, Sunrise Yachts
Defined the 5 Stages of the Empire Model in the context of past Empires, and today's World
Application of the 5 Stages Mdel to better understand the next 10 years for Latin-America
Latin-America's role in the greater world
Investment opportunities in Latin-America
"In November 2012 TPCG Group (a Latin-American Fixed Income Brokerage Firm) located in Buenos Aires Argentina, had the pleasure to count with the visit of David Murrin in its 15th Anniversary Event as the main speaker.
His presentation, based in his book "Breaking the Code of History" was very interesting and delivered with enthusiasm and style, capturing the audience’s attention at all time.
TPCG had nothing but very positive feedback from clients and staff."
Seminar part of: Annual CAIA Macro Panel, CAIA London’s flagship educational event Hosted and Sponsored by Goldman Sachs
"I want to personally thank you for your participation in Wednesday’s CAIA London Macro Panel Event but also offer the sincere gratitude of CAIA London, its members and candidates, and the CAIA Association in Amherst. By all accounts it was our best ever event and we owe that to the five of you. I hope you enjoyed yourselves and found the dialogue and different views and perspectives as interesting as we did in the audience. You guys were great."
Luke Dixon, Senior Investment Manager - Hedge Funds, USS Investment Management Limited
Additional Details: The CAIA Macro event features a moderated panel discussion of 4-5 prominent hedge fund managers and strategists. In recent years the panel has featured Colm O’Shea of COMAC, Jamil Baz of GLG, Hugh Hendry, and many others from such firms as Brevan Howard, Caxton, Tudor, Fortress and BlackRock.
The panelists will be asked to briefly review the macro (or micro events, as it were) that effected the markets in which they trade over the past 12 months. The panelists will then be asked for their macro forecast for the year ahead – which events do they see shaping markets – and what trade(s) would the panelist put on to monetize that expectation.
Presentation at IAS one-day seminar - 'The World of 2020 and Beyond', hosting specialists from different disciplines to address their insights into how the societies of the future could look like.
"David took the audience to a unique and profound view point on the evolution of societies and empires. It was a timeless walkabout from past to future superbly guided in an engaging and information rich presentation." Dr J. E. Jimenez-Roldan, Institute of Advance Science, University of Warwick
"I would like to thank you for participating in our event last week. The group and I found the subject and the content of your presentation, extremely interesting and your delivery, very engaging."
"StatPro needed a compelling and engaging speaker for our Cloud Summit event in London and David delivered on all fronts. It is very important for an external speaker to capture the audience’s attention from the first minute, especially when it’s towards the end of the day. David’s presentation was very interesting and delivered with enthusiasm and style; we have had nothing but positive feedback from our clients and staff.”
Neil Smyth, Marketing and Technology Director, StatPro
The Chalke Valley History Festival, 26th June -1st July 2012, is Britain's biggest literary festival devoted entirely to history. Situated in Ebbesbourne Wake, 12 miles southwest of Salisbury in Wiltshire, it offers a series of top-class litery events involving the most popular, influential and successful historians in the country.
'Thank you so much for coming to the Festival and for giving a talk that is still being discussed two weeks on. It was great to have you on board and I've heard that yours was one of Waterstones' best-selling titles of the entire Festival! Not only was it great to finally meet you, it was brilliant to have you give a speech that has prompted so much discussion and thought.'
James Holland, co-director, Chalke Valley History Festival
"It was a real pleasure to meet you. Thank you very much for a fascinating presentation – it was quite an education and a lot of fun! I am already getting lots of emails asking me how to buy the book. We all had a fabulous time at dinner as well and I hope you enjoyed it too."
Caroline Bault, member of 100WHF's Education Committee
"David's presentation was outstanding and I very much enjoyed it. I have sent an email to some of the senior partners in our firm and have recommended him for a presentation when we have our away day."
Kunal Jhanji, Manager Customer Strategy Advisory, Financial Services, Ernst & Young London
"Just a quick note to say a huge thank you for your fantastic presentation yesterday. The feedback has been extremely positive and you were an absolute star! "
"Sometimes one can point to events in one’s life that are for a lack of a better expression “life defining” - David’s presentation was one of them. For years I have had in my mind unorganised thoughts about how the power of nations (in his words 'empires') have changed over time. David’s presentation finally helped me put these thoughts within a framework! I work for a family office focusing primarily on investment opportunities in Latin America and what was also very interesting was to see how David manages to move from a conceptual framework to very specific market views and trade ideas.
I have already bought three of his books, and I have been spreading the word. I would love to continue following David’s progress and discuss / help / participate in the further development of his investment and conceptual work."
Andrea Bonafe, Aspen Advisory Services Limited
"I felt David's talk was terrific: it was well-researched, interesting, and thought provoking. I thought about the presentation for days afterwards. It changed my views on some emerging markets and I shifted my investment portfolio as a result."
"We would like to thank David for travelling up to Oxford and giving a very engaging speech for 85 student from CapitOx, the University's Investing, finance and consulting society, and the Oxford Asia-Pacific Society. It was by far the most successful event of the term. David stimulated a great deal of discussion afterwards between the various members of our student body. David stands out from the other speakers because of his interactive style and the topics he treats. We felt very privileged he took the time to talk to the younger generation, who will be most impacted by his theories."
Gregory Van den Bergh, Oxford CapitOx Honorary President
A sandwich lunch for 20/30 people where David talked about the future of water, food and energy, problems the world is facing re resources and how he sees this playing out.
"This is just to say thank you so much for your astonishing presentation last Thursday. And for even managing to influence the weather outside to provide appropriate sound effects. Usually at the end of these Meetings, people are quietly stealing away to catch trains ... but you managed to keep them glued to their seats ... and when you asked for questions a positive sea of hands appeared!
"Once again, thank you very much for your participation to our institutional seminar in Brussels and congratulations on your speech; it was really exceptional !!! Hope to see you in the future."
"A Meeting of Minds is a strategic forum built around a series of moderated roundtable sessions, and we are looking to table big-picture, macro keynote presentations which encourage the participants to think outside of the box. Your work on ‘Breaking the Code of History’ particularly caught our eye."
"I can’t thank you enough for coming – your speech was brilliant and was hugely appreciated by everyone present." Anthony Payne MCIPR, Partner & CEO, Peregrine Communications Limited
conference day two, Wed 04 Nov 2009, 09:30 "Africa: a future bread basket for the world"
"We would like to thank you for being our guest speaker on the Agriculture Outlook in London in November 2009. Your speech 'Africa: a future bread basket for the world"'was incredibly engaging and thought-provoking. We have received nothing but fantastic feedback from our audience and hope to see you again in action at our events soon."
© David Murrin 2024. All images courtesy of Getty Images. |