This newsletter contains articles and commentary post-publication that brings our predictions alive and that demonstrates how they are unfolding real-time.
WW3 Has Started: Autocracy Versus Democracy
25 October 2023: ‘Axis of evil’ fear after Sergey Lavrov visits Iran and North Korea [The Times]
A whirlwind tour to Iran and North Korea by the Kremlin’s top diplomat has prompted talk of a new “axis of evil” as a prominent MP in Moscow called for the killing of Russians who oppose President Putin. Sergey Lavrov, the foreign minister, held talks in Tehran with President Raisi just days after a meeting in Pyongyang with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean dictator. Russia has improved ties with Iran and North Korea to try to build an alliance of authoritarian states for what Putin has described as Russia’s “sacred” war against Ukraine.
10 February 2023: Pentagon wants to restart top secret ‘irregular warfare’ mission in Ukraine
Once in a while we see a press article that totally spills the beans, and should be front page, but is not. Because it exposes state secrets of great significance as just happened in case the Washington Post article. We have from the start of the war stated that US and NATO forces have been directly involved in the kill chain in Ukraine. They have been monitoring and mapping the whole country, and battlefield in particular, and then directing the forces of Ukraine, including the real-time provision of target data through the command centre, with NATO special forces as the key linkage. Well, this article brings it all into the open. Thus it has emerged that the US and allies have supplied or confirmed coordinates in most cases when Ukraine has used donated Himars and other advanced rocket launchers. In Washington, the Pentagon was reportedly seeking support in Congress to restart the top-secret reconnaissance missions. But in truth, they never stopped! Ukrainian officials said that virtually all firings of advanced rocket launchers were being done after the US had given target coordinates. So, Putin is correct when he says Russia is at war with NATO, and we are correct when we say WW3 has started.
The Battle Between Democracy and Autocracy
25 October 2023: ‘Axis of evil’ fear after Sergey Lavrov visits Iran and North Korea [The Times]
A whirlwind tour to Iran and North Korea by the Kremlin’s top diplomat has prompted talk of a new “axis of evil” as a prominent MP in Moscow called for the killing of Russians who oppose President Putin. Sergey Lavrov, the foreign minister, held talks in Tehran with President Raisi just days after a meeting in Pyongyang with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean dictator. Russia has improved ties with Iran and North Korea to try to build an alliance of authoritarian states for what Putin has described as Russia’s “sacred” war against Ukraine.
05 October 2022: Uncovered: Box of gold teeth pulled from Ukrainians at Russian torture chamber
The image is reminiscent of Nazi Germany and reminds us of the brutality of extreme autocracy; a box of gold teeth pulled from victims at a Russian torture chamber has been discovered in Ukraine, its defence ministry has claimed.
02 October 2022: Why Putin doesn’t understand the country he invaded
War between Ukraine and Russia is a fascinating study of the anti-entropy dynamics of two systems. Both have similar declining demographics and a common culture under the USSR. However, whilst Russia just continued the hierarchical structure of the USSR in legacy dynamics, Ukraine has been through three revolutions, in 1990, 2004 and 2013, and has broken free and migrated towards a democracy, which has far greater potential to maximise its citizens' individual anti-entropy. The new political structure of Ukraine has allowed its army to assume a mission-command architecture that has proven extremely effective against the hierarchical command structure of the Russian forces. Supporting our thesis outlined above.
The Iranian/Hamas Trap Is About To Spring Shut, Unless The IDF Stops and Thinks
25 October 2023: Nowhere is safe, say Gazans as bombs fall [TheTimes]
The terrible plight of the Palestinians continues, at the behest of their Hamas government. The same government that authorised the diabolical act of war in its most terrible form against Israel, and which continues to authorise Hamas rocket attacks against Israel that then further encourage the airstrikes that have damaged or destroyed 40% of Gaza’s housing. According to the UN, 1.4 million of Gaza's population of 2.3 million have been displaced as a consequence of bombardment or Israel’s orders to evacuate the north.
Families in Gaza have described their desperate search for shelter after airstrikes on or near their homes, both in the northern part of the strip that Israel has told them to vacate and in the south, where they have been ordered to move. The World Health Organisation has warned that a third of Gaza’s hospitals are not operating after running out of fuel and other supplies. Rick Brennan, regional head of emergencies for the UN health agency, said: “We are on our knees asking for sustained, scaled up, protected humanitarian operation.” At least 870 children are missing, feared trapped under the rubble of collapsed buildings, as continuing bombardment and lack of fuel prevents rescue workers from reaching them, the charity Save the Children has warned.
However, it is remarkable that considering the intensity of the Israeli bombing in such a built-up city, the casualties are not higher. Especially as we must assume that the Hamas authorities in Gaza will be doing all they can to inflate the casualty list. Suggesting that Israel, under US pressure, is attempting to minimise civilian casualties. But even so, it is losing the global PR battle, as images of the suffering of the Palestinians spreads far and wide. The IDF have lost the narrative, exactly as Hamas and Iran planned, even as Israel fights back with their own propaganda war, as below.
24 October 2023: IDF screens unthinkable Hamas video to prove depravity of attack [TheTimes]
Drawn from body cams and dashboard footage, most of the 40-minute film seen by journalists is too graphic to release. But it does clearly demonstrate the feral inhumanity of the Hamas operators in the execution of their victims. Whilst also demonstrating, like the forces of darkness that came before them (including the Nazis), how extreme is their creed of hatred. Such is the entrenched nature of their darkness that they are like a cancer that must be cut out, just like ISIS before them. As demonstrated by a Hamas fighter calling his father to boast that he was part of the killing spree.
“Dad, I am in Mefalsim, your son killed Jews,” he says in the conversation intercepted by Israeli intelligence, made from the phone of a Jewish woman he boasts he has slaughtered. “I killed ten with my bare hands. Their blood is on my hands! I was the first to enter. Please be proud of me, Dad.”
“Return to Gaza, enough, enough,” his father says, while his son rants on, demanding his mother open his WhatsApp to see the killings. “Put it on, Mum! Your son is a hero!” he says.
25 October 2023: Hamas aims to divide Israelis over hostages [TheTimes]
Hamas is continuing hostage negotiations in the hope it can drive a “wedge” between the Israeli government and America over the fate of its dual-nationality hostages. After releasing two women on Monday, the Islamist militant group has been holding out the possibility of allowing up to 50 hostages to go home. Hamas has hinted that it wants to see a ceasefire, or at least an end to the bombing campaign, in return for their release.
24 October 2023: How Israelis are preparing to invade Gaza [TheTimes]
The Israelis have invaded Gaza twice in the past 15 years, so are well aware of what they are up against.
“We walked into Gaza and we did so under a barrage of artillery, tanks, helicopters,” he said. “The most dangerous period is entering. There are traps, Hamas knows you are coming, they can have a very good idea of the routes you coming in on. You are crossing on open ground, things are booby-trapped.”
22 October 2023: Who is Binyamin Netanyahu and what shaped his beliefs? [The Times]
To better understand Netanyahu's life and views, I commend this article to you.
20 October 2023: US Navy intercepts cruise missiles fired from Yemen [The Telegraph]
Iran has already activated its proxy forces to attack Israel and US bases. The Pentagon spokesman Brig Gen Pat Ryder said 'The Aegis class destroyer USS Carney intercepted three cruise missiles and around eight drones fired by Houthis in Yemen flying north up the Red sea towards Israel.’ The interceptions came as military bases hosting US forces in Iraq and Syria endured a spate of drone attacks over the past two days. It is clear that Iran seeks to draw in America in support of Israel.
18 October 2023: Fighting on two fronts may be too much for the IDF [The Telegraph]
Israeli military chiefs are concerned about springing a trap in which they commit ground forces to a Gaza invasion but then face an assault from Hezbollah in the north, forcing them to fight a war on two fronts. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) insist they can win such a war, despite concerns they would suffer very heavy casualties at the Israel-Lebanon border and inside Gaza. Another part of the trap facing Israel is a general loss of faith in the intelligence services, after they completely failed to detect the initial October 7 offensive, Mr Eyal added.
The Jerusalem Post also reported that Israeli officials believe “Hezbollah is waiting for the moment that most IDF ground forces are committed to Gaza to open a full front with the IDF in the north,” citing unnamed sources. Israel’s first line of defence appears to be relying on the United States deterring Iran and its lead proxy Hezbollah from joining the fray: Washington has already sent two aircraft carriers to the region.
Earlier this year, Israeli forces took part in an exercise simulating a rapid raid into southern Lebanon to destroy the Radwan Forces, which is believed to be deployed in large numbers around the border.An attempt to wipe out the Radwan Forces could be the very first step Israel takes on the ground in such a war, to destroy morale in Hezbollah’s lower ranks and prevent deadly raids on border communities.This all creates a burning question for Israel: how many troops should it commit to a Gaza offensive, and how many should be held back to defend the northern region?
18 October 2023: Don't repeat our rage-fuelled 9/11 mistakes
President Joe Biden cautioned Israel not to repeat the rage-fuelled “mistakes” made by the US in the wake of 9/11 as it responds to Hamas’ attack. Speaking on a visit to Tel Aviv, Biden said the “horrors” of the October 7 assault will have tapped into a “primal feeling” that Americans endured after the September 11 attacks two decades ago. But he cautioned Israel against letting anger and heartbreak drive decision-making. “I understand and many Americans understand the feeling of shock, pain and an all-consuming rage the horrors will have tapped into,” Biden said.
”But don’t be consumed by that rage. After 9/11 while we sought justice and got justice we made mistakes.” Biden’s trip to the Middle East was designed to calm the region, even as he demonstrated US support for its ally Israel, which has vowed to annihilate the Hamas movement. But after an explosion in a Gaza hospital on Tuesday evening, Jordan cancelled the planned Amman summit where Biden had been due to meet the leaders of Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority.
17 October 2023: Hamas Own Propaganda Goal on Hospital
Hundreds of Palestinians were killed in a huge blast at Gaza City hospital. Whilst Hamas tried to blame Israeli forces, the evidence is incontrovertible that Hamas hit the hospital. Israel’s Defence Forces (the IDF) have released intercepted conversations from Hamas operatives, acknowledging the strike on the al-Ahli Arab Hospital had been caused by a misfire from Palestinian fighters. As part of a package of information released by Israel to deny its responsibility for the attack, the IDF posted a conversation between two Hamas operatives. “It’s from us?” asks a first operative. “It looks like it. They are saying that the shrapnel from the missile is local shrapnel and not like Israeli shrapnel,” says the second operative. The two operatives discussed how the rocket was fired by militants from Palestinian Islamic Jihad from a cemetery behind the hospital. After denying responsibility for the attack, Israel then used this propaganda own goal to accuse Hamas of inflating the number of casualties in Gaza City.
17 October 2023: Iran's Direct Help to Hamas's October 7 War on Israel
Below is an excellent article in full by Con Coughlin, who is The Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute. These are views that we share and totally agree with.
The West Must Stand United Against Both Hamas and Iran
- The precise details of Iran's direct role in authorising the attack are gradually coming to light, with officials involved in the investigation insisting that both Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah (a terrorist organization Iran controls) were involved in the planning of the Hamas terrorist operation.
- This is hardly surprising given the estimated $100 million a year Tehran gives Hamas to help develop its terrorist infrastructure, part of the £13.1 billion Iran has spent on developing its terrorist network throughout the Middle East during the past decade, from supporting Houthi rebels in Yemen to Shia militias in Iraq.
- The true extent of Iran's military support for Hamas was recently laid bare by the movement's leader, Ismail Haniyeh, when he revealed that funds received from Tehran had helped to fund the development of missile and defence systems designed and built in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip.
- The significance of Iran's involvement with Hamas's terrorist activity was also evident at the weekend, when Haniyeh met with Iran's foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, in Qatar, a country that also has a long history of funding Hamas.
- The extent of Iran's meddling in the current war in the Middle East should certainly serve as a wake-up call to the US and its European allies about the danger Iran poses not just to the region, but the wider world.
- With the Saudi negotiations now on hold, the US and its allies should accept the folly of trying to maintain a diplomatic dialogue with Tehran in the hope that the Iranian regime may be persuaded to sign up to a new nuclear deal.
- As Iran's open support for Hamas has demonstrated, the ayatollahs have no interest in reaching a peaceful accommodation with the West.
- The Iranian regime is only concerned with supporting groups that carry out unimaginable acts of violence against innocent civilians, and should be treated with serious deterrence, if not more, and with the enemy status they fully deserve.
The precise details of Iran's direct role in authorising the Hamas attack on Israel are gradually coming to light, with officials involved in the investigation insisting that both Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah (a terrorist organisation Iran controls) were involved in the planning of the Hamas terrorist operation. Pictured: Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei meets with Hassan Nasrallah, head of Lebanon's Hezbollah terrorist organisation. (Image source: khamenei.ir)
While the total destruction of Hamas is understandably Israel's main priority in the aftermath of the organisation's horrific massacre of Israeli civilians on October 7, ultimately it should be Iran that is held to account for committing these atrocities.
Iran's complicity in Hamas's merciless assault against Israeli civilians cannot be underestimated; it has been reflected in the way the Iranian leadership has openly celebrated the indiscriminate slaughter of elderly women and babies as well as multiplying credible reports, including an almost comical one from Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, "Call[ing] On Iranians Not To Speak Out On Iranian Involvement In 'The Hamas-Israel Conflict' -- For Fear Of Harming Iranian Interests And International Status".
The Biden administration seems to be doing everything it can to avoid seeing direct involvement by Iran.
The precise details of Iran's direct role in authorising the attack are gradually coming to light, with officials involved in the investigation insisting that both Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah (a terrorist organization Iran controls) were involved in the planning of the Hamas terrorist operation.
This is hardly surprising given the estimated $100 million a year Tehran gives Hamas to help develop its terrorist infrastructure, part of the £13.1 billion Iran has spent on developing its terrorist network throughout the Middle East during the past decade, from supporting Houthi rebels in Yemen to Shia militias in Iraq.
Iran's ability, moreover, to continue funding terror groups across the Middle East has been aided by the Biden administration's decision to release $6 billion in Iranian assets as part of a recent hostage swap deal, on top of the "closer to $60 billion" Iran was able to acquire while the Biden administration "relaxed" sanctions for years.
Iran's support for Hamas has also been especially helpful in enabling the terrorist organisation to develop its own indigenous weapons, such as the thousands of missiles that have been used to attack targets throughout southern and central Israel.
The true extent of Iran's military support for Hamas was recently laid bare by the movement's leader, Ismail Haniyeh, when he revealed that funds received from Tehran had helped to fund the development of missile and defence systems designed and built in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip.
In a recent message addressed to Brigadier General Esmail Qaani, commander of the Quds Force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in the summer, Haniyeh praised Iran as "a solid pillar upon which Palestinian resistance groups, and the Axis of Resistance in general, rest as they continue their primary struggle against the Zionist enemy and US hegemony."
The significance of Iran's involvement with Hamas's terrorist activity was also evident at the weekend, when Haniyeh met with Iran's foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, in Qatar, a country that also has a long history of funding Hamas. According to Reuters:
"During their meeting in Qatar's capital Doha, Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian praised the rampage as a 'historic victory' that had dealt a setback to Israel's occupation of Palestinian territory."
A statement later issued by Hamas said the two leaders "greed to continue cooperation" to achieve the terror group's goals.
Iran has certainly been quick to celebrate the terrorist atrocities committed by Hamas. Immediately after news of the attack emerged, Iran's foreign ministry declared that the attack was an act of self-defence by the Palestinians.
According to Iranian state media, ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said:
"This operation ... is the spontaneous movement of resistance groups and Palestine's oppressed people in defence of their inalienable rights and their natural reaction to the Zionists' warmongering and provocative policies."
There were also jubilant scenes in Iran's Majlis (parliament), with members of parliament rising from their seats on Saturday to chant "Death to Israel" and "Palestine is victorious, Israel will be destroyed".
Iran's open support for the massacres has inevitably raised fears that the regime could be tempted to respond militarily when Israeli forces launch their ground operation to destroy Hamas's terrorist infrastructure in Gaza.
Visiting Lebanon after his meeting with Haniyeh, Iran's foreign minister warned that the conflict might expand to other parts of the Middle East if Hezbollah joins the battle, and that would make Israel suffer "a huge earthquake."
Concerns that Iran could provoke a major escalation in the conflict by encouraging Hezbollah to open a new front against northern Israel has already seen a rise in tensions, with sporadic clashes reported between Hezbollah and the Israeli military on the Israel-Lebanon border.
Israeli warplanes have also been in action bombing airports in Syria, which are used by Iran to transfer weapons and supplies to the network of military bases it has constructed in southern Syria.
Washington's decision to deploy two US Navy carrier battle groups, headed by the USS Gerald R Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier, to the eastern Mediterranean was taken as much to deter any further attempt by Tehran to escalate the crisis as to demonstrate American support for Israel.
The extent of Iran's meddling in the current war in the Middle East should certainly serve as a wake-up call to the US and its European allies about the danger Iran poses not just to the region, but the wider world.
The timing of the attack, after all, came at a time when the Biden administration was involved in delicate negotiations with Riyadh for Saudi Arabia to normalise relations with Israel in return for US security guarantees, a move that would have added further to Iran's international isolation.
With the Saudi negotiations now on hold, the US and its allies should accept the folly of trying to maintain a diplomatic dialogue with Tehran in the hope that the Iranian regime may be persuaded to sign up to a new nuclear deal.
As Iran's open support for Hamas has demonstrated, the ayatollahs have no interest in reaching a peaceful accommodation with the West. Rather, they have been working for years to encircle Israel with their proxies -- Hezbollah in the north and Hamas in the south -- with the intent of obliterating it. Iran has not only been advancing its nuclear program; on Wednesday, the ban on Iranian missiles expires. Iran will be able to send missiles into Gulf countries in the Middle East, as well as to Russia to launch into Ukraine.
The Iranian regime is only concerned with supporting groups that carry out unimaginable acts of violence against innocent civilians, and should be treated with serious deterrence, if not more, and with the enemy status they fully deserve.
16 October 2023: Gaza is running out of body bags, UN warns
“The number of killed is increasing. There are not enough body-bags for the dead in Gaza,” a daily update from the UN’s agency for Palestinian refugees says.“Over one million people – almost half the total population of Gaza - have been displaced,” the report said.
“Some 600,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) are in the Middle Area, Khan Yunis and Rafah, of those, nearly 400,000 are in UNRWA facilities - much exceeding our capacity to assist in any meaningful way, including with space in our shelters, food, water or psychological support.”
16 October 2023: The Israeli use of Phosphorous Artillery shells in Gaza risks global condemnation when civilians are at risk, adding to the argument that Israels bombardment of Gaza was an act of revenge. Similar shells have been used in Lebanon as shown below and again if civilians were placed at risk its fuels the Hamas/Hezbollah narrative against Israel.
Red Peril 14: Xi Expands His Yuan Axis of Autocracy to Saudi Arabia and Others
25 October 2023 ‘Axis of evil’ fear after Sergey Lavrov visits Iran and North Korea (thetimes.co.uk) A whirlwind tour to Iran and North Korea by the Kremlin’s top diplomat has prompted talk of a new “axis of evil” as a prominent MP in Moscow called for the killing of Russians who oppose President Putin. Sergey Lavrov, the foreign minister, held talks in Tehran with President Raisi just days after a meeting in Pyongyang with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean dictator. Russia has improved ties with Iran and North Korea to try to build an alliance of authoritarian states for what Putin has described as Russia’s “sacred” war against Ukraine.
05 September 2023 Kim Jong-un to travel to Russia to meet Vladimir Putin for possible arms deal as the inevitability of the strengthening of this relationship providing mutual support becomes apparent to the West. Notably this is only taking place with the agreement of Xi, who is happy to let North Korea as its puppet state to provide lethal aide to Putin so that China can avoid lethal aide sanctions. The provision of Russian Nuclear submarine technology (for SSBNs and SSNs) to North Korea is a significant concern, as if the relevant technology has not already, it will soon be in Chinese hands.
25 July 2023 Russia strengthens North Korea ties with defence minister visit Russia’s defence ministry said Shoigu’s trip would “help to strengthen Russian-North Korean military ties,” as well as co-operation between the two countries. As we have warned, the one resource the Korea has is soldiers, so Shoigu could also discuss the possibility of North Korean “volunteer” fighters being deployed to fight alongside Moscow’s in Ukraine What is important to remember is that N Korea is a fully controlled puppet of Beijing..
11 May 2023 South Africa ‘sent weapons and ammunition to Russia’ in clandestine port transfer The American ambassador said the country had loaded arms and ammunition onto a Russian vessel in December, despite Pretoria claiming it wished to remain neutral in the conflict. In a sign of depths to which Ramaposa and the ANC have fallen, but also a warn the west that it is not only autocratic leaders that are drawn to the banner of Xi and Putin, but also corrupt democratic politicians who for their own purposes seek to subvert their own nations path and security.
23 April 2023 Chinese diplomat questions sovereignty of post USSR nations In a clear sign of strengthening Russian/Chinese world views of expansionism. Lu Shaye, the Chinese ambassador to France provoked angry protests from the three Baltic countries as well as Ukraine after he undermined the sovereignty of former Soviet countries. When he was asked if he thought Crimea was part of Ukraine and replied: “It depends on the perception of the issue. There is a history. Crimea was originally Russian. Khrushchev gave Crimea to Ukraine during the Soviet era.” He went on to say that “even these countries of the former USSR do not have, how to say, effective status in international law. Because there is no international agreement specifying their status as a sovereign country.”
The New Age of War; Chapter 2: Israel and the Middle East
24 October 2023 Is the Hamas attack today’s shot heard round the world? (thetimes.co.uk)
For the people of Vienna, Monday, June 29, 1914 began as a lovely summer’s morning. It was a day for strolling in the parks and eating ice creams, for paddling in the pools and basking in the sunshine. In the spa resort of Baden, just outside the Austrian capital, the young writer Stefan Zweig was reading in the gardens, lazily half-listening to the music from the bandstand. “The day was mild,” he wrote later, “there was not a cloud in the sky above the spreading chestnut trees, it was a day to
Even now, it’s impossible to read Zweig’s description of that day, with its bitterly ironic evocation of the crowds “in pale summer clothes, happy and carefree”, without feeling the sheer emotional weight of all that followed. It’s one of the most compelling stories in all history: the outrage of the Austrians, the ultimatum to Serbia, the remorseless escalation to all-out war; the trenches, the tanks, the slaughter, the tragedy. This is the terrible fascination of the First World War: we know what’s going to happen but they don’t.
History never repeats itself, whatever Karl Marx might have said. Even so, it’s hard not to be struck by the echoes across the generations, the parallels between the Balkans in 1914 and the Middle East in 2023. A spectacular atrocity shocks the world and within hours the war-drums are beating. In a troubled capital, long riven by political divisions, a veteran leader weighs his options. To do nothing would look fatally weak. Worse, it might invite more attacks and risk his country’s future security.
22 October 2023: Hamas gunmen were ‘high on drugs’ during terrorist attacks on Israel
In an act reminiscent of Hitler's troops using crystal meth as a stimulant in the invasion of France during the summer of 1940, Hamas terrorists were reportedly high on a stimulant dubbed “poor man’s cocaine” during their attacks on Israel earlier this month. Captagon pills, a synthetic amphetamine-type stimulant, were found in the pockets of Hamas gunmen killed or captured by Israeli forces during the 7 October cross-border raid, Israel’s Channel 12 reported.
21 October 2023: Netanyahu is to blame for Hamas war, say four out of five Israelis
Families of hostages lead calls for prime minister to 'own up to failures' that led to deaths of at least 1,400 people. An overwhelming majority of Israelis believe that Benjamin Netanyahu is responsible for the deadly Hamas attacks. A total of 80% said the prime minister should publicly accept the blame for the failures that led to the deaths of at least 1,400 Israelis on the deadliest day in the country’s 75-year history. The figure includes 69% of those who voted for the premier’s Likud party in last year’s election. Just 8% of the public think Netanyahu is not responsible.
Dmitry Shumsky, a columnist for Haaretz, argued that Netanyahu had pursued a policy of “diplomatic paralysis” in order to avoid negotiations over a two-state solution. He said this strategy was flawed and has turned Hamas from “a minor terrorist group into an efficient, lethal army with bloodthirsty killers who mercilessly slaughtered innocent Israeli civilians”. He claimed that “embracing a foreign policy that openly ignored the existence and rights of Palestinians” pushed Hamas to fight.
16 October 2023: Revolutions in Military affairs are fully transferable. Hence we saw Hamas using drones dropping grenades on the Israeli watch towers, and similarly IDF tanks now sport cages to protect from drone attacks from above. These drone weapons have the capability to change the war in Gaza from current IDF expectations/planning..
15 October 2023: Key Events
1. Hamas continued conducting rocket attacks into Israel at a lower rate of fire than previous days. The group also urged Palestinian civilians to remain in place, in response to Israeli calls for civilians to evacuate the northern Gaza Strip.
2. Palestinian militants clashed with Israeli security forces across the West Bank at a higher rate, which is consistent with Hamas’ call for escalation.
3. Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) claimed to attack four Israeli positions in northern Israel on October 13. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and LH deployed forces to the southwestern Syrian border on October 13.
4. The Iranian regime is messaging that US and Israeli actions could expand the war beyond Israel and the Palestinian territories, while trying to intensify violence against Israel in the West Bank.
13 October 2023: Former Mossad chief urges caution as Israel sets out to destroy Hamas
From Efraim Halevy, a British-born elder statesman of Israeli intelligence, comes an appeal for his government and military leaders to take a breath and not rush into a ground war that could be “adding agony to agony”. He suggested that a full ground assault on Gaza was not the right move at this time and said many of his countrymen agree with him.
“You cannot simply say, ‘OK, how many people do Hamas have? A thousand? Two thousand? We have to send in 3,000 or 4,000 or 5,000’. If the end result of this is going to be that we are going to lose even more people, beyond what is reasonable in terms of the conditions of battle, I think we will be adding agony to agony. So we have to be careful.”
13 October 2023: The IDF are going into Gaza again – but this time they have AP
The addition of Active Protection Systems to the IDF's tanks and armoured personnel carriers represents an evolutionary step in self-defence in land warfare.
12 October 2023: This is an excellent link to better understand the Gaza Strip's geography and really worth studying.
12 October 2023: The IDF bombed two key Syrian airports
The IDF claimed that they were interdicting Hezbollah weapons supply lines, and demonstrating how quickly this war could escalate. The stated red lines in the conflict are given in the table below. Implying that a ground assault on Gaza will bring in response a full-scale attack by Hezbollah, which could then bring in US forces.
11 October 2023: How Israel's Supernova festival turned into a massacre
Apocalyptic scenes unfolded. People were shot at point-blank range, survivors tell of women being raped then killed.
10 October 2023: Hamas is expanding its incursions into southern Israel as Palestinian militias in the West Bank and Lebanese Hezbollah clash with Israeli security forces in the northern province of the country. The situation could expand the war to a second front.
Hamas launched a surprise ground and air attack into Israel on 7 October, which included sending hundreds of fighters into Israel to attack nearby border posts, military sites and residential areas. Israel is conducting airstrikes in Gaza to retaliate. Iran’s Axis of Resistance is aligning itself with Hamas’ operation, however.
- Hamas’ militant wing the Al Qassam Brigade launched an attack into the Israeli town of Rahat, which is approximately 30 kilometers east of Gaza, on 9 October. The Al Qassam Brigade also fired rockets into Israeli territory on 9 October, including into Jerusalem as Hamas called on people in the city to attack Israelis and be at the forefront of resistance.
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- The Israel Defense Forces conducted airstrikes on more than 500 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad-affiliated positions, including operational headquarters in Gaza on 9 October. The Israeli Defense minister imposed a “complete siege” on Gaza, which cut off over two million people from electricity, food, water, and fuel. Israel has mobilized 300,000 military reservists in Israel amid reports of preparations for a ground incursion into Gaza.
© David Murrin 2024. All images courtesy of Getty Images. |