1.0 David Murrin is an acclaimed speaker, with a 20-year track record of applying his unique models of human behaviour to predict future events and trends. He also lectures at the UK Defense College for the higher command staff course and is an accomplished author. His book Breaking the Code of History, published in 2009, has accurately predicted the dramatic global changes we’ve seen over the past two decades, including the dangers related to the decline of American hegemony and the rise of China. David follows Winston Churchill’s maxim “The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.”
David Murrin has been described as a polymath. He studied Physics with Geophysics at Exeter University and became a seismologist, working for Shell in Papua New Guinea in 1984, before joining J.P. Morgan as a proprietary trader in 1986. David co-founded Emergent Asset Management in 1993, one of the first European emerging-market macro hedge funds. His 35-year asset management and finance career has focused on finding deep-seated patterns in history and using them to understand and predict current actions in both geopolitics and financial markets. As part of this, in 2002, David developed a unique model for human systems and their cyclical behaviour that applies to empires, nations, military organisations and companies. This five-stage roadmap enhances understanding and decision-making and has a remarkable track record of predicting events over the past two decades, including the pandemic that David claims originated from a Chinese PLAN laboratory, the high of the US stock market in 2021, the invasion of Ukraine, and the onset of the current inflationary surge and bond bear market.
David has written four books. Breaking the Code of History (2009) identifies the theories that underlie historical cycles and applies such to today’s changing world. Lions Led By Lions (2014) forensically analyses the evolution of The British Expeditionary Force during World War One and then applies the lessons learned to the current rise of China. Now Or Never (2020) analyses the accelerating Chinese and Russian risks to Britain as seen through David’s five-stage roadmap, and argues the imperative for a massive rearmament program. Red Lightning (2021) leverages David’s deep understanding of China’s and the West’s force capabilities and provides a scenario for how a conflict might conclude if the two sets of powers engaged via a Pearl Harbor-like mass surprise attack of hypersonic weapons.
David’s company, Global Forecaster, utilises his investment experience combined with his collective behavioural models to predict market moves, qualify risk parameters, aid risk assessment, and reduce biases in collective investment decisions. Market predictions are entwined with geopolitical changes, such that the timings of major events often may be forecast relatively precisely. David's geopolitical models are based on his human system theories. His analysis and projections offer practical insights into the entropic forces at play in today's world - with a special focus on China’s hegemonic challenge to American power within the wider conflict of autocracy versus democracy.
David’s work challenges entrenched assumptions and shares astute practical examples from history that provide roadmaps through today’s turbulent realities.
David has been described as a polymath and his career of more than three decades has been focussed on finding and understanding collective human behavioural patterns and then using them to project futures in today’s turbulent times. He has a remarkable track record, which has led to his success as a future trends speaker. He follows Winston Churchill’s maxim “The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.”
David has combined his fascination with military history, geopolitics and finance into a unified geopolitical model, published in “Breaking the Code of History” in 2011. This book highlights the key factors in today's changing world, as power shifts from the West to the East. His central idea is the Five Phase Life Cycle of Empire, which analyses and “decodes” the rise and fall of empires throughout history, from the Roman Empire right through to the rise of China today. He also points out the many factors that influence the rise and fall of regions and countries, including demographics, climate change and its impact on scarce resources, and technology.
2.0 Books
Breaking The Code Of History 2009: To evolve as a human race, we must identify the theories that underlie historical cycles, learn the lessons and apply them to today’s changing world. Studying the ebb and flow of empires throughout history, in particular, can enable us to pinpoint the mechanisms that cause civilisations to rise and fall. Read more about the book
Lions Led By Lions 2014: History is full of truths to be discovered. However, over the past one hundred years, the greatest divergence between a story told and its reality is that of the British Expeditionary Force (BEF) during World War One. The lessons of WW1 are directly applicable to preventing WW3. Read more about the book
Now Or Never 2020: Today, Britain is living through a time of crisis, triggered by the pandemic and the consequent economic contraction. To compound the uncertainties ahead, Britain is also in the final stage of its Brexit process. However, every signal from the five-stage roadmap model indicates that this phase is, in reality, a time of great opportunity for Britain to reset and rebuild as we return to our global maritime heritage and increase our integration into a global trading system in a new multi-polar world. A time when Britain will be able to fill the numerous vacuums created as America contracts, which will shore up the democratic world against the rising threat of dictatorships. Read more about the book
Red Lightning 2021: Since the end of the Cold War, the majority of the populations of the West have lived with the assumption that World War Three (WW3) would and could never take place. However, what if an aggressive and expansive hegemonic challenger believed that the combination of the West’s collapse in collective moral fibre and resolve, coupled with the use of powerful and decisive new weapons deployed en masse, could make WW3 winnable? This is the story of how the past ten years and the next five years comprise the road to war in 2025, and the moment that China mounts surprise attacks on the free world. Red Lightning then precisely details how the PLAN wins WW3 in only a few days and ends the rule of democracy globally. Read more about the book
3.0 Background Reading
Cycles Magazine is published by The Foundation for the Study of Cycles and in this edition, they have published a portion of my work 'The Genesis And Predictive Power Of Breaking The Code Of… Read more.
4.0 Speech Topics
Example Key Note Speech for RMB June 2024
4.1 GEOPOLITICS AND MARKETS
Breaking The Code of War – the path to WW3
- The Rise of China and the Asian Economies
- The New Arms Race
- China’s Hegemonic Challenge to America
- The Decline of American Empire in the 21st Century
- The Driver of Demography
- The AI Singularity
- The Drumbeat of War – the K-Wave Commodity Cycle
- WW3 in the Context of Previous Wars, and How it Could be Fought
The Collapse of the Doomsday Bubble
- The K-Wave Inflationary Cycle with a Peak in 2025
- Global Super Stagflation Ahead
- The Future of Markets and the Global Economy
- The Great Equity Bond Implosion Ahead
- The Age of Western Wealth Destruction
The Reconfiguration of Europe
- The Future of Britain Post Brexit
- The Future for Britain and the European Union
Accelerated Climate Change
4.2 BUSINESS AND LEADERSHIP
- Adaptation through lateralisation – are you a Left Brain or Right Brain organisation? – which is more agile and responsive to change? – how to make your organisation more adaptable.
- The Life Cycle of a Business – understanding the Five Phase life cycle of a human system.
- Iconic leadership – The nature of effective leadership.
- Human System Organisation – maximising anti-entropy in your team i.e. success and productivity.
- Technology and the Rise of the Machines.
David Murrin’s mission statement:
My journey took me from Papua New Guinea to the trading floor of JP Morgan. With the framework as a physicist and a dyslexic pattern-recognising mindset, I was able to recognise the similarities in behaviour between the two groups and that as human beings we all share emotions collectively and behave en masse. That was the beginning of my fascination with predicting human behaviour based on their unconscious collective thoughts and actions. I started with the prediction of markets, but then after 9/11 I expanded my studies into geopolitics, leading to the creation of the Five Stages of Empire Model in 2002, which I now also refer to as the Five Phases of Life Cycle Model, because it applies to the individuals, to companies, to countries, to teams. Indeed, it is everywhere in human society.
It should now be clear to us all that mankind this decade is facing the greatest of challenges for its survival and evolution, as we experience one of the greatest power shifts we have seen for centuries – from West to East. The imperative now is to navigate through this transition safely without a global war, by ensuring the force of Western deterrence. Meanwhile, we face coincident risks that are associated with this hegemonic challenge; market volatility, high inflation, unprecedented wealth destruction and the development of automation with a high risk of an AI singularity in but a few years, driven by the arms race, coupled with accelerated climate change and increased resource completion.
But all is not lost! Global Forecaster was set up to map the dangers ahead and provide the knowledge as to how to safely and successfully navigate the geological and financial rapids ahead. With the objective to share our knowledge with politicians, leaders, risk-takers and electorates so they can be better informed about the challenges ahead and create a better environment for the whole of mankind in the future.
Short Speaker Profile
A World Class Geopolitical and Financial Market Advisor
David Murrin is an acclaimed polymath and speaker, with a career spanning more than three decades, in which he has focussed on finding and understanding human behavioural patterns and then using them to predict events and trends in geopolitical and global markets.
David has combined his fascination with military history, geopolitics and finance into a unified geopolitical model. His book Breaking the Code of History, published in 2009, accurately predicted the dramatic global changes we’ve seen over the past two decades, including the dangers related to the decline of American hegemony and the rise of China. David follows Winston Churchill’s maxim: “The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.”
His core theory is the Five Stages of Empire, which analyses and “decodes” the rise and fall of empires throughout history, from the Roman Empire to the rise of China today. He links this cycle directly with demographics, polarisation, resource dynamics and warfare, as well as climate change. He has also lectured on war and strategy at the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom for the Higher Command and Staff course.
David’s company, Global Forecaster, utilises these collective behavioural models to predict macro market moves, qualify risk parameters, aid risk assessment, and reduce biases in collective investment decisions. Market predictions are entwined with geopolitical changes, such that the timings of major events often may be forecast relatively precisely. His geopolitical models are based on his human system theories, which have expanded on the Five Stages of Empire model.
His analysis and projections offer practical insights into the entropic forces at play in today's world – with a special focus on China’s hegemonic challenge to American power, within the wider conflict of autocracy versus democracy. He challenges entrenched assumptions and shares astute practical examples that provide his audiences with roadmaps to navigate today’s turbulent realities.
Clients
Feedback
David did such an amazing job delivering a keynote speech opening up the Future of Mining Forum event in London. David gave a very thought-provoking speech which kept the audience on the edge of their seats throughout the whole presentation.
Natalia Egorova - Natural Resources Forum
David, It was great to reconnect as we start 2022. Our conversation conjured up images of you presenting at our Meeting of Minds event at the Berkeley Hotel in June 2011. The violent electrical storm only added to the atmosphere. You spoke about The predictions in your book Breaking the code of history which still resonates in my head. Indeed People honestly still talk about your presentation and how on the money it was. To this day, I think you are the best forecasters we have ever had!
James Goad - Joint Managing Director Owen James - enabling financial services to do better business
Really interesting and thought-provoking • Great vision and presentation skills • Sensible thought-provoking well done • Controversial but good. strong Brexit views • A lot of food for thought • Refreshingly different albeit slightly scary predictions! • A man with a similar view of the world delighted to see I am not the only one • Excellent
Citywire Income Forum Audience feedback 85.6%
I thought the session was excellent. David was a very good speaker and slightly provocative which made a great change from a lot of our events.
Peter Beckett, Partner, KPMG LLP (UK)
Several years ago I had the fortune of meeting David Murrin through Rob Hersov. David captured his audience with his candid dialogue, no frill content and a wit that equaled his exceptional insights. His ability to leverage off historical context and provide relevance to the current global political arena had his audience spellbound. I would recommend David as both a speaker or VIP dinner guest at any table.
Ariella Kuper - CEO Solution Strategists Pty Ltd
I will NEVER forget that keynote you gave in London all those years ago talking about the decline of the US - so spot on!
Jane Halsey, Founder & President Roundtable Forum, LLC, NYC
David addressed the Royal College of Defence Studies for the first time in 2013. His presentation on the impact of Leaders in the historical cycles of empires provided a compelling and thoughtful proposition. David’s analysis is provocative, challenging and highly persuasive, and his talk generated much interest among the 90 Members who represent over 50 countries. Without doubt, he provided one of the genuine highlights of this high-quality 2013 Course.
Nick, Royal College of Defence Studies
© David Murrin 2024. All images courtesy of Getty Images. |