Past and Present Predictions

THE DECLINE OF AMERICAN POWER

2003 Predicted that America had moved into decline, the fifth and final stage of empire as of 9/11: a prediction which was first made public on CNBC in March and repeated during March–December 2010.
2007 Predicted that Obama would win the 2008 election and then, in 2011, that he would be re-elected in 2012. That his election in 2008 would confirm America’s decline, based on the historic point where the underclasses rose to power through the demographic significance of the non-white vote.
2008 On the day of Obama’s election success, when his popularity was running high, we made the prediction that Obama would go down as one of the worst presidents in history. As with all other ground-breaking leaders elected from the underclass, who have always focused on internal divisions and failed to maintain the boundaries of the empire, he would preside over a precipitous collapse of The American Empire, that then encouraged enemies to gather at the gates.
2009 Our predictions of American decline were affirmed and detailed in Breaking the Code of History (BTCH).
2014 We predicted that the next US president would be a Republican, so whoever was the Republican party nomination would become president.
2016 (Jan) Predicted Trump’s Republican party nomination would be successful and thus that he would become the next US president against all popular opinion. We pointed out that his Make America Great slogan was perfectly resonant with America after Obama’s massive power giveaway over his eight-year tenure.
2016 Predicted that there would be a US-Chinese trade war initiated by Trump, which would be the first stage of the end of a global trading system, to be replaced by a global bifurcation into two spheres: Western and Chinese-centric.
2018 Predicted that if America failed to confront and deter Chinese aggression, it would make the road to war in 2022-25 highly probable.
2019 (Dec) Predicted that Trump would lose the 2020 election and not be electable or elected in 2024, because he would be indicted and disqualified from Office.
2020 (Jan) Predicted that Biden would win under a socialist set of policies that were aimed at wealth distribution and that his term would be the terminal phase of American decline.
2021 (April) Predicted that the withdrawal from Afghanistan marked the terminal and fifth stage of decline and the contraction of American hegemony. And that this would encourage acts of aggression by China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, which would manifest in 2022.
2021 (Dec) Predicted that Russia would invade Ukraine in early 2022.
2021 (Dec) Predicted that China would invade/blockade Taiwan before 2025.
2021 (Dec) Predicted that Iran would attempt a nuclear breakout in 2022-24, with the high risk of regional conflict against Israel
2023 (Jan) Predicted that Iran would either attempt to go nuclear and engage in regional war with Israel to avoid a major revolution and regime change.
2023 (October 8th) Predicted that Chapter 2 of WW3 has begun with Iran's war against Israel and that it would soon spread across the region.
2024 (Jan) That neither Trump Nor Biden would be the next President.

All documented in numerous blogs/videos on the decline of American power on the Global Forecaster website.

THE RISE OF CHINA TO CHALLENGE AMERICAN HEGEMONY

2003 (March CNBC) Predictions were first made public on CNBC that China would expand its economy and coincidently its military capabilities to challenge American hegemony. Predicted that this was the onset of strategic competition and that trade wars and a new arms race would certainly follow in the decades ahead.
2004 Predicted that the initial stage of the Chinese cycle up to 1996 had been based on copying and assimilating best practice from those around them, i.e. America. However, going forward in the second stage of expansion to Empire, we predicted that China like all empires before them would out-innovate their competitors. Especially America, in the inevitable economic and arms race ahead.
2009 Our predictions of Chinese expansion were affirmed and detailed in Breaking the Code of History (BTCH).
2009 (onwards) Numerous predictions of the Chinese leading the arms race to threaten American hegemony.
2009 Predicted the rise of the new Pacific alliances between India, Japan, the US and Australia, to contain China.
2011 Predicted the accelerating Chinese-US arms race.
2015 Predicted that the path to absolute power of President Xi was similar to Mao's, as was his commitment to making China the dominant global superpower.
2016 Predicted the increasing US tensions with North Korea, as China manipulates the situation to its advantage.
2016 Predicted that a trade war with China was an imminent certainty.
2020 (5th Jan) Predicted that the Wuhan pandemic would spread around the world.
2020 (March) Predicted that COVID was a completed bio-weapon that had been released by Xi, to regain the initiative that had been lost during the US-Chinese trade war.
2020 (April) Predicted that the old global trading world had bifurcated into Chinese and non-Chinese spheres of influence. A process that would end with the fall of the second Iron Curtain.
2020 (May) Predicted that China had switched economic models from a manufacturing export economy to an internally fuelled consumer society, supported by a rapidly growing military economy, as China’s five-year plan emulates Hitler’s four-year plan. This signified Xi’s determination to militarily challenge America within four years.
2021 (March) Continued predictions of the high risk of WW3 into the anticipated 2025 commodity peak, initiated by China via its allies in the axis of Autoracy in 2022/23. Reinforced regularly with articles on this website and the publications Now or Never and Red Lightning.
2022 Outlined that China has entered in a four-year plan in 2020 like the Nazis four-year plan and that it would either go to war or go bust by 2025
2022 Predicted that China would first provide lethal aide through its Proxy North Korea and then later directly, as increased global bifrucation unfolded into a fully blown WW3.

All are documented in numerous blogs/videos on Chinese power on the Global Forecaster website.

THE ACCELERATION OF IRREVERSIBLE CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS CATASTROPHIC IMPACT

2005 Predicted that catastrophic climate change was a real phenomena, but way more serious than any estimates at the time. Because even if we stopped putting in any more CO₂ or methane, the current greenhouse gas levels correspond to a 10°C temperature increase, based on evidence from the 800,000-year ice cores. This prediction has been vindicated by the below graph of global temperature changes in 2023.
2009 Full details of this thesis were released in my book Breaking the Code of History. Predicted that we would need to extract the carbon and methane we had put in during the industrial age to stabilise our current ecosystem.
2009 (to now) Predicted that carbon-neutral policies are not sufficient to reverse the 10°C+ temperature change that we have built into our climate through CO₂ emissions.
2021> Interview, November 2012
2023 (Jan) Evidence published that the past eight years have been the hottest on record. Strongly supporting our thesis above.

Documented in numerous blogs/videos on climate change on the Global Forecaster website.

BREXIT AND THE EXPANSION OF GLOBAL BRITAIN

2015 Predicted that Cameron would win the next UK general election as politics shifted towards the right and in favour of wealth-creation policies.
2015 Predicted the outcome of the Scottish Referendum, i.e. that Scotland would not leave the UK, based on the theory that smaller nations do not leave larger, expanding systems, and that Britain was indeed expanding.
2015 (Dec) Predicted that if Cameron allowed a referendum on the EU, it would result in a Leave vote. We furthermore correctly highlighted the key social drivers behind the Leave vote.
2016 (to Brexit) – We correctly predicted the course of Brexit events based on a regional civil war model that explained how the right-brained thought process of the Brexiteers would inevitably win. This included Boris Johnson becoming PM, as he was the only candidate demonstrating the energy that resonated with this profound social change.
2019 (Early) We predicted the birth of Global Britain and its key policies, using the second stage of empire as a model for Britain’s future behaviour.
2019 (Nov) At a time when there was fear of a landslide Labour victory under Corbyn that would take Britain back to the 1970s, we predicted that the Labour party would lose the majority of its key traditional supporters in the next election, as a result of the Conservatives adding a new wealth-distribution element to their policies.
2020 We predicted the birth of a new form of politics under the Conservatives that combined wealth creation with wealth distribution.
2020 (Jan) Predicted that Boris Johnson would win a landslide election, allowing Brexit to proceed.
2021 (Jan) Predicted that despite the apparent majority of Scots favouring leaving, according to the polls, Scotland would not leave the Union.
2021 (Jan) Predicted that, despite the pandemic, the expansion of Global Britain was on course as outlined in the second stage of the empire cycle, and that Britain was the only nation in the Western world undergoing a stage of expansion, as the others (US and EU) were contracting in terminal decline. Britain's leading role in saving Ukraine was part of that expansive process, as is its building alliance with Japan from 2022 onwards.
2021(Dec) Predicted that Boris Johnson would be forced out of office for incompetence and dishonesty in the first six months of the year.
2022 (Aug) Predicted that UK house prices had just peaked and would undergo a very significant fall in the next 24 months, of 38% to 50%.
2022 (Dec) Predicted that Rishi Sunak, the super-linear thinker, would be replaced by a lateral-thinking PM in a massive move to the right in UK politics.
2023 (Dec) That Sunak's center Conservatism would be crushed at the next election and that Reform would rise to power under Farage, in a once in a hundred years political event.

Documented in numerous blogs/videos about Brexit and Global Britain on the Global Forecaster website.

THE FATE OF THE EU

2014 Predicted that the EU would commence its collapse 2019/20. (Brexit was just such a point.)
2020 Predicted that Germany, the engine of the EU, had gone into the fifth stage of empire decline, i.e. the truck that pulled the EU was running out of gas, so the EU was doomed! Germany's decline was evidenced by its temerity over Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Documented in numerous blogs and interviews on the Global Forecaster website.

PUTIN'S RUSSIA

2018 Predicted that Russia would undergo economic contraction into the B-wave of the K-cycle low in late 2019, which should be used by the West to make a rapprochement with Putin. Otherwise in the next commodity inflation cycle into 2025, Russia would become very wealthy and increasingly belligerent towards the West. Western response to Putin’s belligerence would then push Russia into the arms of an alliance with China, with deadly consequences for the West.
2020 (March) Predicted that Russia would undergo a wave of major civil unrest within 12 months that could unseat Putin. This indeed came to pass, but he held onto his power.
2021 (Dec) Predicted that Putin would invade Ukraine if his demands were not met.
2022 (Feb onwards) From the first five days of the invasion we have accurately predicted the majority of the key phases, and developments before they have happened. Including (Aug) that the Russian Army was intrinsically broken by August 2022 (like the German Army was in August 1918), and only surviving on the threat of nuclear weapons

THE COVID PANDEMIC

2009 We predicted in Breaking the Code of History that the next global pandemic was going to come from a Chinese bio-weapons lab that was part of a US-Chinese arms race.
2020 (5 Jan) When the world was asleep, we predicted that the Wuhan virus would spread to be a major global pandemic that would all but shut down the global economy.
2020 (Feb) Based on our 2009 prediction above, we posited that SARS-2 originated in a laboratory and did not have a zoonotic origin.
2020 (Feb) Based on our 2009 prediction above, we posited that SARS-2 was a finished bio-weapon that in all probability had been released by Xi, to regain the initiative that had been lost during the US-Chinese trade war.
2020 (March) At a time when people thought it would be a short-lived pandemic, we predicted that the Wuhan virus would run unconstrained with sequential multi-strain waves for at least 18 to 36 months.
2020 (March) Against government policy and fear-mongering, we predicted that lockdowns were not going to be effective, nor were they justified, but rather that partial aged-based lockdowns (above 60) should be used initially to allow the economy to continue to function. We predicted that in time, when stagflation had gripped the world, lockdowns would be viewed as economically totally disastrous, and those associated with the policy would be openly vilified, i.e that the judgement on the lockdown strategy would be politically damning.
2021 (Late Nov) We predicted that Omicron was the 4th attenuated wave of the pandemic and would cause very few fatalities, inoculate the whole population, and bring the pandemic to an end. This was in line with our above prediction that the Covid pandemic's duration would be 18-24 months with three main waves. We argued that no lockdown or restrictive measures were required and that Johnson was using the cover of the Delta variant's presence in mainland Europe, with its associated lockdowns, to impose them in the UK, with the motivation of preserving his political life.

Documented in numerous blogs and interviews on the Global Forecaster website.

MAJOR FINANCIAL PREDICTIONS

1998 Predicted the Asian Crisis from top to bottom.
2001 Predicted at the highs that the Argentine bonds bull market was about to collapse and go into default. Then bought the lows.
2002 Predicted the commencement of the next 25-year commodity cycle with oil, mining and agriculture.
2004 Predicted the growth of Africa as the prime investment destination based on the new K-cycle.
2007 Predicted the 2008 financial collapse and made significant returns of 84%.
2011 Predicted the end of the first phase of the 25-year commodity price cycle surge, to be followed by price deflation until 2018.
2012 Predicted the continuation of global commodity deflation into late 2019. Including oil reaching sub $30.
2019 (Dec) Predicted the Bitcoin Buy Zone @$7,000.
2019 (Dec) Predicted that oil would drop from $63 to sub $27 in a demand collapse that would decimate the oil industry within 12 months.
2020 (Jan) Predicted the impending US and global stock market peak with one month of 40%-plus within 12 months.
2020 (Feb) Predicted that the stock markets had peaked and would fall as the pandemic spread across the world. Consequently, all our clients moved to 100% cash positions at the highs.
2020 (March) Predicted that gold, after a major decline, was a buy @$1487 targeting $2400 within 18 months. (Exited @ $2000 high.)
2020 (Aug) Predicted that the Western world was in a state of stagflation because real unleveraged growth was low and inflation was on a secular rise, along with the commodity cycle, over the next five years. And that the condition of stagflation would only worsen with time.
2020 (Aug) Predicted that after the lows of the stock market decline in March 2020, we had seen the end of Phase 1 and that the recovery bounce was Phase 2, which would inevitably be followed by a second and even more destructive bear market and asset destruction cycle called Phase 3.
2021 (Oct 1st to 2023) When the NASDAQ was at 15000 we predicted that the high would be 16720 and once met it would reverse sharply, marking the end of the Doomsday Bubble. The 16720 reversal point was very precise indeed. We continue to predict that the ongoing collapse will accelerate, as part of the biggest real wealth-destruction phase in a hundred years.
2021 (Oct) Predicted that there would be a huge surge of K-wave inflation as part of the C-wave rally into 2030. and went short Bonds at the highs.
2022 (Jan) Predicted that America and the Western world would suffer a period of massive real wealth destruction into the 2030 inflation peak.
2022 Predicted that inflation would remain high as assets fell. Creating significant stagflation and increasing social unrest. We expect that the increased supply chain constriction from China will only worsen, and supply will at some point stop totally as hostilities build and the world bifurcates. This upward inflationary pressure will more than compensate for any demand collapse, driving inflation higher.
2022 (Jan) Predicted that the dollar would start its terminal dive from 2022 onwards.
2022 (Jan) Predicted that 2022 onwards would be the year of precious metals, where they were the only store of real value, and value growth into 2025.
2022 (Aug) Predicted that UK and US house prices had peaked in August and would undergo a very significant fall in the next 24 months of 38% to 50%.
2022 (Nov) located the low of the Bitcoin Correction going long at 16500 after being short from 66,000
2023 (Jan) Expect commodity prices, inflation and stagflation to continue rising.
2023 (Jan) The Fed and the other central banks have lost control of growth and inflation.
2023 (Jan) We are in the accelerating phase of the great age of Western wealth destruction, the collapse of the Doomsday Bubble with equities and bonds moving much lower as rates rise, the fall of house prices, and the implosion of private equity as a business model. Along with the fall of the dollar and the rise of precious metals.
2023 (Jan) We are living through the end of debt-driven capitalism as we know it, and are in the process, over the next few years, of a migration to Western command-based wartime economies.
2023 (Nov) That precious metals were the best safe haven during the oncoming financial storm as economies migrated to wartime economic systems

INVESTMENT AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS

2019–present Global forecaster has made numerous significant and profitable trade recommendations across some 80 markets and 120 individual shares. The results of which are available at Trade Recommendation results.