Arkite Alerts Archive

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• Our results are published at the end of each quarter, so that our performance in various sectors can be evaluated by our clients, allowing them to assess the reliability of our forecasts and the quality of our returns. Financial Market Forecasts | David Murrin
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Our modus Operandi is to enter trades with a tight risk to stop, based on short-term pattern structures and then run our trade to multiple returns on risk using longer-term patterns aligned with our big picture views.

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So if you are a professional asset manager, can you not afford to Engage David | David Murrin?

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1. Do you have the in-house skills to predict the market's responses as events escalate into a global war?
2. Have you appreciated that the current conflict-escalating dynamics, which are taking place against the rising entropy of the K-wave into 2030, make de-escalation highly unlikely?
3. Are you in denial in a state of war blindness? Much as in July 1914, we are now in an unstoppable chain reaction to a full-blown regional war in the Middle East. Yet the majority of the population of the democratic world is in total denial as to the scale of the disaster ahead.
4. Have you accounted for the Delusional market behaviour? Similar to July 1914, the world and markets are in denial in a state of war blindness. Hence, we are not seeing reality reflected in markets. But remember, after the assignation of Archduke Ferdinand in 1914, the markets went sideways for a month, then when the first shot was fired, UK bonds fell 50%! To survive this situation, we must all shake off our shock and be prepared for the worst while only hoping for the best! So, re-read:
5. Are you prepared for a massive oil price shock? The key immediate economic ramification will be the massive rally in oil to $150, and over the next few years $250, as the Gulf is closed to traffic by Iran, which will be the driver behind market responses. Read; The Iran-Israel War Will Drive A Major Commodity Rally.
6. Have you factored in that China could well Initiate its war with America. In line with our predictions of a total escalation into WW3, we see a high probability that China could commence its war with America as the Middle Eastern war escalates (see Red Peril 30; Ten Reasons Why Xi Will Go To War In 2024 and Red Peril 41. American War Blindness; Part 8 Vulnerability Exposed). A key reason is an oil shock that further weakens China's economy, forcing Xi into war rather than economic collapse (see Managing Investment Risk Into A War With China).
7. Have you done the work? Can you afford not to integrate our perspectives into your investment starter?

• An Investment Strategy For WW3: Part 1
• An Investment Strategy for WW3: Part 2 – Market Behaviour During WW1
• An Investment Strategy for WW3: Part 3 – Market Behaviour During WW2
• An Investment Strategy for WW3: Part 4 – How To Preserve Wealth

If any of the above is absent from your investment scenarios, then you would be irresponsible not to subscribe to our Market-proven alpha generation models Financial Market Forecasts | David Murrin

Engage David | David Murrin

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Global Trader

• We offer our clients the IP of a high return global macro hedge fund in real-time.
• Derived from the Hedge Fund Models created by CIO David Murrin over 30 plus years and track record.
• Designed for professional asset managers and financial institutions to enhance alpha generation across all sectors of the world's financial and commodity markets.
• Designed by a CIO for CIOs and senior asset managers.

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Our Alpha-generating IP

We integrate unique behavioural models outlined in  Theories | David Murrin (rmaco.com) . Breaking the Code of Markets | David Murrin. Much like a weather forecaster predicts the weather. Real time ever-changing

1. Big Picture Geopolitical Predictions

• Unique Long-term Empire cycle analysis with 20-plus-year track record of specific and time-focused accurate prediction for global geopolitics.
• Accurate world view modelling that has predicted the road to the current wars engulfing us and the next stages that will fundamentally shifts in the global markets.
• Outputs across all time frames to predict the future path of global geopolitics and markets.Past and Present Predictions | David Murrin

2. Unique global market Trading models

• We have a Market-proven alpha generation track record- Financial Market Forecasts | David Murrin
• CIO’S VIEW Create short, medium and long-term multi-asset investment strategies
• Trade executions Predict and generate alpha with low risk returns profile and real-time alerts

‘’David you fully integrated work combining global geopolitical historical perspective, overlaid with a keen understanding of the inner workings of financial markets, provide a level of wisdom that is rare. The quality and depth of research is invaluable to leaders across the investment, cooperate and political disciplines’’

Satish Rai- Chief Investment Officer OMERS Pension Fund

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A Unique Financial Military Fusion for a Time of war

• Do you have the in-house skills to assess the market as global events run to war?
• We offer world class expertise and military analysis with a focus on predictive output to anticipate the start and course of major conflicts that will shape our world
• We offer a unique insight on warfare that is absent in financial markets.
• We have integrated this military knowledge with our market models to create unique investment strategies for a decade of war, based on extensive study of WW1 and WW2.

“David is one of the best and most innovative geo-strategic thinkers I know. His understanding of past and current wars, and the weapons and strategies used to shape their outcomes, is profound. This has enabled him to make a series of remarkably prescient predictions about the new age of war, that unfortunately are coming true in front of our eyes. Our political and military leaders would greatly benefit from drawing on his knowledge and insight to help them navigate through these perilous times.”

Lord Richards of Herstmonceux, General Richards GCB, CBE, DSO, DL formerly The Chief of the Defence Staff, the professional head of the British Armed Forces.

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Track record and performance

• Like all funds we track our alpha generation record and publish it in the public domain, every quarter end.
• Our results over five years have been consistently impressive, and we recommend that any of you managing money should take the time to read this report and consider subscribing. Arkent Macro Q3 2024 Performance Review - The Threat of War Drives The  Safe Haven Rally  | David Murrin

Engage David | David Murrin

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For those of you who are relatively new to Global Forecaster, I thought it would be interesting to give you a brief overview and perspective of my work over the past two decades and some current views. Curious about the power of AI, I generated these answers with the help of ChatGPT!

Question 4 - What are the common criticisms of David Murrin’s work?

1. Overly deterministic: Some critics argue that Murrin’s predictions, while grounded in historical cycles, can sometimes appear too deterministic. His reliance on cyclical patterns might downplay the role of contingency, innovation, or changes in human behaviour that could disrupt historical trends. To see our answer to this, read FAQs under Testimonials | David Murrin

2. Polarising views: His predictions about the decline of the West and the rise of China can be controversial. While some see his foresight as prescient, others view it as too pessimistic or one-sided. Our response to this can be found at Red Peril 41. American War Blindness; Part 1

Question 5: How would you rate David Murrin's work?

Identifying the geopolitical forecaster with the "best track record of accuracy" can be subjective, as it often depends on the specific metrics used, the time frames considered, and the nature of the forecasts made. However, a few global geopolitical forecasters and think tanks are frequently recognised for their historical accuracy and impact:

1. George Friedman (Stratfor and Geopolitical Futures): The founder of Stratfor (a private intelligence firm) and later Geopolitical Futures has a strong reputation for long-term geopolitical forecasting. His 2009 book The Next 100 Years made bold predictions about the 21st Century that have been praised for their foresight on issues such as US dominance, rising tensions with Russia, and the growth of Turkey and Poland as regional powers. While some of his forecasts are controversial or long-term, his insights are often seen as highly strategic and credible.

Friedman uses a mixture of historical analysis, political theory, and strategic assessment, focusing heavily on geography and long-term cycles in geopolitics.

2. Ian Bremmer (Eurasia Group): The founder of the Eurasia Group is known for his annual Top Risks reports, which outline key global risks for the coming year. He has been relatively accurate in identifying major geopolitical events, such as the rise of populism, the increasing influence of China, and significant changes in US foreign policy. Bremmer specialises in analysing political risk and the impact of global governance structures on market economies. His expertise lies in the intersection of politics and economics, particularly in emerging markets.

3. David Murrin (Global Forecaster): The founder of Global Forecaster has gained a following for his unconventional forecasting methods, often drawing on historical cycles of empire and civilisational shifts. He has made some bold predictions about Western decline, China's rise, and the dynamics of conflict, which have resonated with many, especially in light of recent global developments. Murrin relies on cyclical models of history and empire, which he applies to contemporary geopolitics. His approach focuses on long-term historical patterns and cycles of growth, dominance, and decline.

4. Peter Zeihan (Zeihan on Geopolitics): The former analyst with Stratfor has become known for his books like The Accidental Superpower and The Absent Superpower, which predicted the US retreat from global affairs and the destabilisation of global supply chains. His insights into demographic trends and energy geopolitics have gained a following, especially after the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. Zeihan combines geopolitics, demographics, and energy market analysis to make predictions about global economic and political trends, particularly emphasising US isolationism and the fragmentation of global systems.

5. Nouriel Roubini (Roubini Macro Associates): While primarily known for his economic predictions, Roubini's forecasts often intersect with geopolitical issues. He is most famous for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, but he has also offered important warnings about geopolitical risks like the potential for conflict in the Middle East, the rise of populism, and challenges in the global financial system. Roubini blends economic analysis with geopolitical risk factors, often focusing on systemic risks to the global financial system.

6. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU): The EIU is well regarded for its country-specific political and economic risk forecasts. It produces in-depth analysis across multiple regions, often used by businesses, governments, and institutions for strategic planning. EIU analysts provide quantitative assessments of risks by using a combination of macroeconomic and political analysis, offering detailed forecasts for individual countries and regions.

7. The RAND Corporation: The RAND Corporation is a US-based think tank that has had a strong track record in defence and security-related forecasts. Its work is used extensively by the US government and NATO for long-term strategic planning and it has produced many accurate forecasts in areas like cybersecurity, military strategy, and the evolution of global conflicts. RAND employs a rigorous, data-driven approach, often conducting war games and simulations to forecast potential geopolitical outcomes.

If you wish to understand our ever-more entropic world and the unfolding Regional war in the Middle East, and the regional war In Ukraine. We urgently encourage you to subscribe to Murrinations Gold for the price of a newspaper and see the world without those rose-tinted glasses so you can navigate the rapids ahead.

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Global Trader offers the IP of a Global Macro Hedge fund real time to our Clients. Like all funds we track our alpha generation record and publish it in the public domain, every quarter end.

This quarter our key investment strategy of owning precious metals once again produced substantial returns

Our results over five years have been consistently impressive and we recommend that any of you managing money should take the time to read this report and consider subscribing.

Read more at Global Trader: Your External CIO | David Murrin

Arkent Macro Q3 2024 Performance Review - The Threat of War Drives The  Safe Haven Rally 

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Dear Arkite,

Watch my latest interview on Palisades Gold Radio:

Tom Bodrovics, Palisades Gold Radio, welcomes back global forecaster and author David Murrin to discuss the significance of historical understanding for predicting complex geopolitical events and avoiding future conflicts. Murrin shares his belief in the repetition of historical patterns due to human unconsciousness, emphasizing the importance of studying history from multiple perspectives. He believes that the current geopolitical situation between the West and China/Russia could lead to World War Three, highlighting historical cycles as potential catalysts for conflict.

Murrin also shares his theory on five stages of empires, which he's applies to Britain, Germany, and America's power dynamics. He warns about the challenges facing China due to economic instability and military expansion, urging strategic thinking to counteract this challenge. Murrin discusses China's economic shift towards industry growth, and the potential implications of the U.S.'s rate-cutting cycle. David emphasizes the importance of understanding war blindness, a dangerous tendency for denial and appeasement in Western society, and the potential consequences of inflation due to economic power shifts between democratic and autocratic systems. He encourages individual action and the embrace of lateral thinking as crucial steps for personal growth and societal progress. Murrin also discusses the potential for wars to promote accelerated societal evolution and encourages understanding historical cycles to prevent future conflicts.

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Talking Points From This Episode

• David Murrin stresses historical patterns' repetition and their role in predicting geopolitical conflicts.
• He identifies five stages of empires and warns about China's economic instability and military expansion.
• Murrin advocates understanding war blindness, lateral thinking, and historical cycles to prevent future conflicts.

Watch Now

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We have started a new Instagram and Facebook feed on World events, so please rush over and sign up. I will be asking the big questions of our time and of course, pointing to where you can find the answers! Short and to the point!

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For those of you who are relatively new to Global Forecaster, I thought it would be interesting to give you a brief overview and perspective of my work over the past two decades and some current views. Curious about the power of AI, I generated these answers using ChatGPT!
 

Question 3 - What are David Murrin’s biggest predictions?

One of his most significant predictions (dating back to 2002) revolves around the decline of Western powers, particularly the United States and Europe, and the simultaneous rise of Eastern powers, primarily China. The themes below form the core of his predictions, often with the message that urgent change is required to avoid or mitigate these outcomes for the Western World.

1. Rising powers and declining empires: Murrin sees the geopolitical landscape as being defined by the rise of China and the relative decline of Western powers, particularly the United States. He believes China is challenging US hegemony and views the conflict between these superpowers as almost inevitable. He compares this to historical cycles where rising powers have often clashed with established ones, leading to war.

1. China’s dominance: He believes China will continue to rise as the dominant global superpower, surpassing the US in military, economic, and geopolitical influence. He warns that China’s ambitions, particularly regarding Taiwan, could increase global tensions, potentially triggering WW3.
2. Decline of the West: Murrin argues that Western democracies, especially the US and Europe, are in terminal decline due to internal divisions, aging populations, and economic stagnation. He predicts that the West's relative power will continue diminishing unless dramatic reforms exist.
3. Cycles of empire: Murrin’s broader theory of cycles suggests that the rise and fall of empires follow predictable patterns. He uses this model to suggest that we are entering a period of upheaval and realignment with the West in decline and Asia on the ascent.

2. WW3 - Decade of conflict ahead: Murrin has been vocal about his belief that the world is on the brink of World War 3. His views are shaped by his study of historical patterns, particularly cycles of conflict and empire expansion. Murrin argues that we are entering a period of global instability driven by several key factors: the global economic system (strained by resource competition) and increased military spending are contributing to rising tensions. He also points to China’s military ambitions and the West's slow response to these challenges as accelerating factors toward a global conflict.

3. Decade of conflict: Murrin forecasts that the 2020s will be marked by escalating geopolitical tensions, which could culminate in a major global war by the mid-2020s. His prediction centres on China’s potential conflict with the US and its allies, as well as other hotspots like the Middle East and Eastern Europe (https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/blog-entry/ww3-the-world-is-on-the-brink) (https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/blog-entry/red-lightning-how-the-west-lost-ww3-to-china-in-2025).

Murrin has laid out these views in various forums, including in his book Breaking the Code of History, and numerous interviews, warning that without significant changes in global leadership and strategic adjustments, the world could be drawn into widespread conflict.

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If you wish to understand our ever-more entropic world and the unfolding Regional war in the Middle East, and the regional war In Ukraine. We urgently encourage you to subscribe to Murrinations Gold for the price of a newspaper and see the world without those rose-tinted glasses so you can navigate the rapids ahead.

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For those of you who are relatively new to Global Forecaster, I thought it would be interesting to give you a brief overview and perspective of my work over the past two decades and some current views. Curious about the power of AI, I generated these answers with the help of ChatGPT!

Question 1 - Who is David Murrin and what is Global Forecaster?

David Murrin is widely regarded as a significant geopolitical and market forecaster, particularly known for his insights into the rise and fall of empires and the prediction of global conflicts. His work, especially through his book Breaking the Code of History and regular forecasts on his website, has earned him recognition in niche circles for his unique, cyclical analysis of global events. The British global forecaster and author is known for his bold predictions of historical and cyclical analysis of geopolitical, financial, and military trends.

He bases his forecasts on a model of human behaviour and cycles driven by his core Theory of Anti-Entropy in Human Systems, which then manifests in the "The Five Stages of Empire" cycle or, when applied to any human system of any magnitude, the 5 Phase Life Cycle. These cycles then interact with The K wave Cycle. These combined theories draw from historical patterns of rise and decline in global empires and are applied to contemporary geopolitics.

Murrin combines this historical framework with his understanding of markets, economics, and warfare to predict, in the largest degree time frames, the unfolding of major shifts in global power, particularly in relation to Western decline and Eastern (especially Chinese) ascent. The same models working in smaller degree time frames accurately predict the outcome of elections and macro market moves to generate significant alpha returns. Murrin’s focus on understanding patterns from the past to predict future geopolitical and market shifts places him among respected analysts. His influence grows in sectors that value long-term historical cycles and complex geopolitical predictions, which have proven very accurate.

Question 2 - What are the strengths of David Murrin’s forecasting?

1. Historical perspective: Murrin’s approach is highly influenced by historical cycles. His view that empires rise and fall in predictable stages allows him to identify trends and emerging dynamics that may be overlooked by conventional analysts focused on short-term factors.

2. Bold visionary predictions: Murrin makes large-scale predictions about global power shifts. He has consistently argued that the West (particularly the US and Europe) is in decline, while nations like China are in an ascendant phase.

3. Impactful comprehensive framework: Murrin is widely respected in the field for his visionary approach to forecasting, especially regarding large, structural geopolitical and economic shifts. His strength lies in identifying macrotrends, particularly concerning the rise and fall of powers, and the cyclical nature of human history. His Five Stages of Empire model is considered innovative and provides a valuable lens through which to view global affairs, making him influential among strategists and analysts looking for long-term trends.

4. Geopolitical focus: Murrin is particularly insightful in analysing geopolitical risks. He often points to under-appreciated threats, such as the potential for conflict between the US and China, or shifts in global energy dynamics, particularly as they relate to resource competition.

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If you wish to understand our ever-more entropic world and the unfolding Regional war in the Middle East, and the regional war In Ukraine. We urgently encourage you to subscribe to Murrinations Gold for the price of a newspaper and see the world without those rose-tinted glasses so you can navigate the rapids ahead.

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Dear Arkite,

Watch my latest interview with Catherine Cashmore of Land Cycle Investor:

"David is the author of numerous titles, including Breaking the Code of History, in which he expands on the models of empire and human behaviour that have allowed him to make some incredibly accurate forecasts in recent years.

The conversation started with a synopsis of current events. Global riots, the war between Israel and Hamas (Iran's proxy), and why David doesn’t see himself as a warmonger preaching doom – but rather an optimist showing how we can prevent the downfall of the West.

• We move onto recent movements in commodity prices. Where will the opportunities be in the new transition to net zero?
• David gives his excellent insights into the k-wave being an entropic cycle.
• And we finish with a look to the future - including UFOs! Yes, you read that correctly. David is one of the few forecasters I know of (and the smartest) who has researched recently released information on UFOs and is in the process of incorporating it into his analysis of global events. 

All in all, it was a great interview – and I am sure you’ll find the conversation as fascinating as I did."

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Watch Now

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