Dear Reader,
The following is an appraisal of our 10 main geopolitical predictions made at the start of 2022. This does not include any of the subsequent predictions that we have made during the year.
1.0 The naming of the year
Based on the Netflix film ‘Don’t Look Up’, the name of the year was in our view perfect. Rarely has a film captured a society's mental state of total delusion and denial. It continues to be a representative satire of America’s collective psychology and culture, i.e. the total denial of the risks to its financial systems and hegemony that signal its decline. Instead of confronting the problems head-on, Biden's highly linear leadership, along with most of the American population, prefer to occupy themselves with the bi-partisan divide and the many relatively insignificant issues of a failing liberal society, hoping that the big issue of imploding hegemony will solve itself! Our conclusion was that 2022 would be a tumultuous year and one where everyone should have looked up.
2.0 Summary of success
2022 was a remarkably successful year for the predictive power of Global Forecaster's collective behavioural models to make non-consensus predictions (that no one else made), in both geopolitics and markets, with respect to events of a major magnitude. If 2020 and 2021, which were immensely successful, were not enough evidence of the power of our work, then 2022 should leave you in no doubt, and ensure that you follow our work ever more closely in 2023, which promises to be even more tumultuous! The below are only our geopolitical calls, for those on financial markets please go to our Quarterly Performance Appraisals.
Our major successful calls were predicting the end of the Covid crisis with Omicron, that inflation would skyrocket along with stagflation, whilst assets would fall dramatically in the collapse of the doomsday bubble. That Precious metals would be the only store of value. That Putin would invade Ukraine. Not forgetting that whilst Boris Johnson would be ejected from his premiership. Meanwhile, predictions that are still unfolding are the Invasion of Taiwan, the decline of the Dollar and Iran’s nuclear breakout. The only one of our ten predictions not on track is that Biden is still in office! However, as we explain below this is perhaps the best outcome of a bad US leadership situation. We have included the precise wording of our predictions.
3.0 Predictions that came true
3.1 We predicted the end of the Covid-19 pandemic and the negative view of lockdowns
"Calling the end of the Covid pandemic is the only good news that we can offer in 2022. As we predicted in our Murrinations Insight on 4th December 2021, Omicron – Darkest Before The Dawn, we believe that this is the fourth attenuated wave of the pandemic that inoculates populations without significant deaths and serious illness and ends the pandemic. So far, the evidence increasingly supports our hypothesis. The Lockdown Brigades across nations will, in time, be judged as having over-responded to this Omicron threat and will suffer political consequences."
3.2 We predicted that stagflation would increase as inflation remained high and equities and bonds fell
"Whilst input inflation from commodity prices will fall with demand temporarily, the increased supply chain constriction from China will only worsen and will at some point stop totally as hostilities build. This upward pressure on inflation will more than compensate for the demand collapse, driving inflation higher. Thirdly, we expect the dam to break concerning the huge devaluation of the dollar through money printing, that will feed into inflation dynamics. Consequently, we could then see the post-collapse bottom of the doomsday cycle be accompanied by high inflation, making rampant stagflation a terrible reality. Inflation on this scale will no doubt translate to a cost-of-living crisis across the Western economies, widespread social unrest and political upheaval that strongly supports socialists and trade unionist polices.
"The only way to avoid this stagflation trap is to enact policies that generate long-term real growth through increased creativity and productivity, as opposed to through printing money to increase the leverage on diminishing real growth, as the Western nations have done for two decades. The UK, unlike the US and EU, as a nation is in an expansive phase of its empire cycle and has a potential policy option, that although counterintuitive, is the only way out of the economic trap ahead. This is to announce that over a two- or three-year phase, the UK will transition to a 20% flat tax rate, which would not only turbo-boost the economy, especially for the entrepreneurial risk takers, but would attract investment capital from around the world, further accelerating economic growth."
3.3 We predicted that the Doomsday Bubble would collapse
"The evidence is that the biggest bubble in the history of the Super Western Christian Empire will collapse catastrophically this year, creating a reduction in asset prices of between 50% and 60%. This will be coincident with a US debt crisis that will spread to the EU. The switch from the super bubble feeding the American population with dopamine, to feeding it with cortisol as prices fall, will switch America into threat-sensitive psychology that will, in all probability, come too late to deter outside aggression."
3.4 We predicted that there would be war in Ukraine
"Unless Biden can execute the strategy outlined in Time For A New American-Russian Entente Cordiale, Putin will, with a 95% probability, invade Ukraine. Sadly, the chances that Biden can create an entente cordiale with Putin are very small, in which case war is inevitable."
3.5 We predicted that Johnson would be removed by his party
"As we described in Incompetence And The End of Boris Johnson, Johnson has been exposed as unable to captain the good ship Global Britain. As such, he will be removed most probably in Q1, but possibly in Q2, by his party. The next leader will have to portray competency in leadership to be successful."
3.6 The year of precious metals
"For those that subscribe to our Global Trader product, we have been advocating the main financial survival strategy to be focused in precious metals and their mining stocks. We believe, this year, this strategy will prove to be the only game in town." Whilst bonds and equities have fallen significantly, precious metals have held their value, completed a major correction are now ready for a powerful rally to new highs.
4.0 Predictions that are unfolding
4.1 The invasion of Taiwan
"Japan has woken up to the threat that if Taiwan falls it will be next. As such, it is starting to create a more-structured defence alliance with America around the fate of Taiwan. However, Xi has created internal dynamics of total political control and having moved to an internal fuelled consumer society will, like the Nazi four-year plan, force him to make aggressive moves of expansion. So, given any opportunity of American distraction like Ukraine or Iran, we can expect a swift invasion of Taiwan to follow this year. The use of DF21 and DF26 area denial missiles will prevent US and Japanese naval forces from supporting Taiwan, which will inevitably fall to the CCP. The only way to prevent this outcome is to give Taiwan its own nuclear weapons, which is an unlikely outcome." Whilst Taiwan was not invaded, it was blockaded in what we believe was a dry run for a war plan that involves the whole of the Asian Basin.
4.2 The bid for Iranian nuclear weapons
"With an estimated break-out time of only a few weeks, coupled with the pressure of ongoing sanctions and consequential economic constriction, there is every chance that 2022 is the year that Iran makes its bid to become a nuclear power. In the attempt, Israel may be forced to deploy a pre-emptive nuclear strike, in which case the region will destabilise as the flow of oil falters with high inflationary consequences for the world." This situation has quietly worsened this year with Iran moving ever closer to a nuclear break out, and its harsh regime is under ever greater attack from its suppressed population, who seek secular freedom. It has entered into an ever-closer alliance with Putin’s Russia, providing Putin with weapons to sustain his war in Ukraine – in return for what? Su-35 fighter aircraft, and possibly nuclear technology?
5.0 Predictions yet to unfold
5.1 The year the dollar dived
"This will be the year the dollar collapses and will be seen as the point where it lost its reserve status, much as the pound did in the year of the Suez crisis." Based on the dollar index, which started 2022 at 0.95 and ended at 103.00, this prediction has not yet started to unfold. However, the high to 115.00 and the subsequent reversal suggests that the surge of dollar repatriation to support margin calls in equities and bonds is over and the dollar decline in now unfolding.
5.2 Biden will not survive 2022 in office as president
"The reason why 2022 has become a massive risk concerning wars in Ukraine, Taiwan and Iran is the weakness of Biden's leadership. With his linear thought process, he was never fit for purpose as a leader, even in his prime. But today, his combination of dementia and linear thinking has opened the Western world up to attack by emboldened enemies post the rout from Kabul. So, as the above titanic events unfold, Biden will inevitably falter and we should expect to see either Biden resign or have the 25th Amendment served upon him." Whilst Biden is clearly still in office, his dementia is ever more in evidence, and it would seem that senior White House staff have taken over responsibility for key policies such as conduct for the war in Ukraine, effectively keeping him in office. Notably his response to the invasion of Ukraine was slow and weak, showing demonstrable susceptibility and fear to Putin’s nuclear threats. This is a positive outcome as it has kept power away from Kamala Harris or Nancy Pelosi. It will have put the brakes on Xi’s ambitions for now, as he realised that although Biden is weak, the response of America's military system would be strong. This is the best outcome in a bad situation.
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What can you do to make a difference in 2023 ?
When faced with the increasing risk of these disastrous global events, including the West’s potentially catastrophic decline, it is very easy to feel impotent. I am often asked the question as to what one person can do in the face of such huge geopolitical events. So where does one start? We must believe that, with knowledge and a greater awareness of mankind and our geopolitics, we will be able to act before it is too late, not just for the West but for the whole world.
- The greater the number of people who are aware of the problems our world faces, the more likely we are to be able to solve them.
- Start by seeing the danger ahead, if not for ourselves then for our children. Stop sleepwalking with the others and take responsibility for our future.
- Become informed, and express this information to your friends and colleagues, drawing upon the cycles described in Breaking The Code Of History to inform your perspective on what is really going on.
- Demand much more from our leadership, and be clear on what defines good leadership so that you can recognise it when you see it and support it at every level of our society. To change the course of the future for the better, we will need to collectively manifest something very special in the form of iconic leadership.
Next...Iconic Leadership »
So, get up to speed
By gaining access to our Murrination insights by subscribing, you will realise that we are not lurching from one short-term crisis to another, as the mainstream media would have us believe. You will understand the patterns and rhythms behind these 'crises', which are actually predictable and in some cases avoidable, helping you to prepare both on a personal level and as a valuable and informed member of society.
- Read Breaking The Code Of History
- Stay up to date and follow our Murrinations
- Learn about Adaptation Through Lateralisation
Breaking the Code of History was written with the specific aim of analysing man's past, the structure of our world today and how our future could play out. It was designed to offer a new understanding, especially, of the risks that we face. Its key conclusions were as below, and have been proven 100% accurate. Implying that we are also correct about what comes next:
- The Western world (or SWCE – Super Western Christian Empire) is in the final decade of its decline, as defined by the last of a series of empires that ends with the United States of America.
- The Asian Super Empire (ASE) has been rising for over a hundred years and is currently led by China. It will be in the most aggressive phase of its expansion over the next decade.
- The next decade will see a huge commodity squeeze that will accelerate frighteningly in the last half of this decade. Its peak should be around 2025, but this may come sooner as a result of the scarcity of global resources.
- The accelerating effects of climate change will only exacerbate the competition for basic resources of water and food.
- Wars are only fought for resources, with religious and nationalist memes being used to bond and polarise each combatant into a unique combination of beliefs.
- The next decade will see China become a military powerhouse as it converts its economy’s strength into military power. China’s ever-growing need for resources will drive it into wars with the rest of the world, if it believes it can win such a conflict owing to a massive military capability advantage over its enemies.
- Extrapolating all the factors above, we risk a global war (WW3) between 2025–27 that could destroy humanity.
Solutions: so what can the West do?
The answer is both simple and yet seemingly impossible to enact. The West needs to rebuild its economies to create real growth and wealth, and then ensure that it has strong armed forces to deter any potential Chinese aggression. The key steps to achieving this are:
- Collectively recognise the qualities of good leadership and then elect iconic leaders. This may mean a reformation of government process or evolution of new political parties.
- Replace the values of decline with the values of growth and expansion within our Western society, as defined in Breaking The Code Of History.
- Urgently enact a policy of widespread debt forgiveness/restructuring in the US and Europe.
- Lower taxes to the minimum possible without incurring the burden of having to pay the interest on the debt.
- Create a new enterprise culture with tax incentives and effective cultural support for those that take business risk, and create real wealth and jobs based on hard work and enterprise.
- Then re-invest in defence and ensure that the Chinese do not gain any significant leads through revolutions in military affairs.
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© David Murrin 2025. All images courtesy of Getty Images. |