Arkite Alerts Archive

Dear Arkite,

My latest interview is online to view, where I join Dan Astin-Gregory of the Elevate podcast, an audio and video show designed to elevate humanity and enrich the world.

"With growing geopolitical tensions, inflation out of control and a rapidly accelerating downward economic spiral many are rightly concerned for our future.

To address these issues I am joined by David Murrin, founder of Global Forecaster, who is renowned for the development of unique human behavioural and economic models. when combined with a geopolitical overlay, have a most impressive track record at predicting economic and political outcomes.

In this interview, we cover David's “Five Stages of Empire” model and the dramatic ramifications, including the growing risks of a World War in the next 5 years as conflict escalates and empires collide.

Whilst it may all sound doom and gloom, our hope is that by making more informed choices, we can avoid destructive cycles and create positive and actionable strategies for the future."

Image

Watch the interview now

Dear Arkite,

My latest interview, with Southbank Investment Research, is available to view on the website:

Image

"Boaz Shoshan (Southbank Investment Research) hosts David Murrin on tonight’s episode of Southbank Live – the interactive money show for UK investors.

David is an acclaimed economic and geopolitical forecaster.

His career spans founding JP Morgan’s European Market Analysis Group, building and selling hedge funds, and developing frameworks to predict human behaviour – from which he’s authored four books.

David can really help open your eyes to the impact of geopolitics on financial markets, and is able to give insights many money experts can’t.

Everything from Brexit, the Ukraine war, and markets at all-time highs, to the impact of lateral vs linear thinking from governments – David can help make sense of our world and its ever-expanding complexities."

Watch the interview now.

Dear Arkite,

This update is for all professional Asset Managers with an eye on the geopolitical and global economic situation at hand. Below is an excerpt from the latest Global Trader Q1 2022 Performance Review, which can be read in full here:

INTRODUCTION

If we described the last quarter as another excellent result, then Q1 2022 knocked the ball out of the park with our geopolitical calls predicting Putin's invasion of Ukraine and the rampant inflation and its impact on economies and markets. Those calls translated into some huge alpha extraction in Equity indices and shares, the Yen's decline, the precious metals and the fall of the Ruble, which we exited at the lows. We strongly recommend that our subscribers take the time to read this analysis of our performance to enhance their understanding our how we consistently extract alpha from the markets.

Q1 2022 PERFORMANCE REVIEW CONTENTS

1.      Global Forecaster introduction

2.      Our main Q1 2022 geopolitical calls

3.      Q3 market predictions and performance

4.      Alpha Capture funds and their performance

1.0 GLOBAL FORECASTER TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND RISK METHODOLOGY

Global Forecaster was set up in the summer of 2019 to inform and advise professional asset managers through troubled waters. During that year, there were obvious indicators that global markets were soon to peak (in February 2020) and collapse with the most grievous consequences. We have called this transition The Great Shift as it is driven by the intersection of the peak of the K wave cycle and hegemonic challenge of China to America and the West.

We now have 11 quarters of performance under our belt, and the results of our geopolitical predictions, market predictions and Alpha Capture fund performances have been exceptional. We believe the key to high returns and long-term success is based on:

1.      Prescient market views generated within a systematic multi-timeframe and price modelling system

2.      Good trade entry points with tight and structurally meaningful stops (entered with contrarian price modelling)

3.      Appropriate position sizing

4.      Risk management following the progression of a trend

5.      Successful trade exit points.

These key five points describe Global Forecaster’s risk methodology. By reading the below quarterly performance appraisal, you will have a better idea of how we apply our risk allocation methodology, as well as how we combine geopolitical predictions using various models from Breaking The Code Of History. All of these real-time predictions have been published on the Global Forecaster website and are available to our clients.

Click here to read the review in full.

 

Dear Arkite,

Thank you for joining our Global Forecaster site. Following a number of requests for more information on our financial predictions, I have the pleasure to enclose some details below.
 

Why You Need Our Predictions

“David, your fully integrated work combining global geopolitical historical perspective, overlaid with a keen understanding of the inner working of financial markets, provides a level of wisdom that is rare. The quality and depth of research is invaluable to leaders across the political, corporate and investment disciplines.”
Satish Rai - Chief Investment Officer OMERS Pension Fund Canada

“Quite often, those of us continuously trading in the markets tend to get lost in the noise and pay less attention to the major geopolitical issues that will shape the global economy for years to come. These geopolitical transformations are happening now. David is there to help you bring these issues into focus and help you think outside the box. We've had numerous in-depth discussions on how these transformations will impact not only our portfolios but our lives in general.”
Antonino Fortes Senior Portfollio manager

We offer five distinct products to our clients:

1. Arkent Macro Scenario Updates – provides our real-time macro market strategies. These integrate all the elements of our geopolitical perspectives (Murrinations Insights) and market views into one coherent strategy and perspective. Annual subscription of £1,500 plus VAT per month.
View Subscription Options

2. Individual Macro Market Forecasts – this service provides specific recommendations in the market sectors outlined below, with entry points and stops and recommended sizes relating to our evaluation of the quality of the trade. The global market sectors are Equity Indices, FX and Crypto Currencies, Bond Markets, Emerging Market FX and Indices and Commodity Markets.
View Subscription Options

3. The Premium Strategist Package – includes Murrinations Insights, Arkent Macro Scenario Updates and one Individual Macro Market Analysis sector.
View Subscription Options

4. The Global Macro Package – includes Murrinations Insights, Arkent Macro Scenario Updates and Individual Macro Market Analysis and Forecasts for £5,000 per month. In addition, advisory packages are available on request.
View Subscription Options

5. Personalised Consulting – We also offer higher levels of engagement to senior risk-takers and C-Suite executives, to maximise their outcomes. Price by agreement. Engage David


For further information please view our website. Once you have reviewed our services please click on one of the above links to subscribe or if you have further questions please contact me on david@davidmurrin.co.uk

I will then send you further information to help you understand how sharing our knowledge can empower you.
 

Listen to The State Of It podcast

Dear Arkite,

My latest podcast, for the Independent Research Forum, is now available to watch:

David Osman of the IRF is joined by David Murrin, founder of Global Forecaster, renowned for the development of unique and effective behavioural models that predict financial markets.

David discusses the importance of the Kondratiev K wave commodity super-cycle to the outlook for inflation and other financial markets. He explains the implications of the K wave for his “Five Stages of Empire” model and the dramatic ramifications, including the growing risks of World War III in the next 5 years as empires collide in an increasingly bi-polar world. 

Watch Now

Image

Murrinations Insights

Read my latest insights:

The Sinking of The Moskva Exposes UK MOD's Poor Strategic Thinking

Could Le Pen End The Reign Of The Putin Whisper?

Infusing Lateral Thinking To Survive The Entropic Waves Ahead

Subscribe now for immediate access to all my posts! I now offer a 1 month trial costing £50, giving you instant access to my latest insights.

Read the newspapers for yesterday's news or read my Murrinations Insights for future trends and strategies.

Feedback:

“I have worked through your well-written and disturbing book “Breaking the Code of History”. I am in broad agreement with what you have written and think the book makes a great contribution towards understanding the past and the present better, thus laying a sound foundation for preparing for the future.”
Former President FW de Klerk

"David Murrin dazzles us with the scope of his learning, the depths of his experience and the vigour of his enthusiasms; all are lit with the gleam of his focus. His book is closely and tirelessly argued and superbly and relevantly illustrated, whilst his analysis is lucid and vivid. Murrin warns of the dangers ahead if the human race fails to deal with the consequences of our systematic self-destructive behaviour. This is a book that each of us should read and learn from."
Rear Admiral Richard Cobbold Director of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

Wishing you all stay well.

Warmest Wishes

David

Arkite: the name derived from my Arkent Strategy to navigate, survive and thrive through the great shift.  

Image

Dear Arkite,

My latest webinar, When Empires Fall: Lessons From History, is now available to watch:

"This session is brought to you by CFA UK’s Fixed Income special interest group.

We are potentially seeing the end of the US hegemony and the dollar. The philosopher George Santana once said “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”. The lessons from history are often ignored in modern economic and financial analysis. 

In this webinar former trader, hedge fund manager and author David Murrin draws on his research in Breaking the Code of History to explain why he believes we are seeing decline of both the United States and Europe, why covid and the Ukraine has likely accelerated this, and we are about to enter a much more volatile and dangerous world."

Watch Now

Image

Murrinations Insights

Read my latest insights:

Infusing Lateral Thinking To Survive The Entropic Waves Ahead

The Battle For Ukraine 8: Victory Beckons in Putin's Campaign In The East

Hypersonic Missiles And The Hegemonic Arms Race

Subscribe now for immediate access to all my posts! I now offer a 1 month trial costing £50, giving you instant access to my latest insights.

Read the newspapers for yesterday's news or read my Murrinations Insights for future trends and strategies.

Feedback:

“I have worked through your well-written and disturbing book “Breaking the Code of History”. I am in broad agreement with what you have written and think the book makes a great contribution towards understanding the past and the present better, thus laying a sound foundation for preparing for the future.”
Former President FW de Klerk

"David Murrin dazzles us with the scope of his learning, the depths of his experience and the vigour of his enthusiasms; all are lit with the gleam of his focus. His book is closely and tirelessly argued and superbly and relevantly illustrated, whilst his analysis is lucid and vivid. Murrin warns of the dangers ahead if the human race fails to deal with the consequences of our systematic self-destructive behaviour. This is a book that each of us should read and learn from."
Rear Admiral Richard Cobbold Director of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

Wishing you all stay well.

Warmest Wishes

David

Arkite: the name derived from my Arkent Strategy to navigate, survive and thrive through the great shift.  

Dear Arkite,

My latest interview for Southbank Investment Research is now available to watch:

"Acclaimed economic and geopolitical forecaster David Murrin returns to the Southbank studios for a second interview with Boaz Shoshan (Southbank Investment Research) - this time focusing on Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

In this in-depth discussion, David details the path that led to Russia's invasion and what motivated Putin's greatest gamble yet, before examining the consequences for investors and the world. 

From picking defense stocks as investors rediscover the grim art of warfare to investing in agriculture as food-security becomes paramount, the pair explore the lessons learned from past conflicts which investors would do well to remember. And as the "macro-war" on Russia's economy and currency creates a new paradigm of financial conflict, David speculates how Russia might strike back - with gold...

We hope you find this masterclass through the world of geopolitics and finance insightful. Don't miss the rapid-fire market roundup at 1:24:27 where David gives his one-year outlook for gold, oil, sterling, the FTSE, and more! 

David Murrin's uncannily successful predictions about the future have been informed by a unique career - from the jungle of Papua New Guinea to the trading floors of Wall Street.

Using a combination of economic cycles, military history, and human behaviour, David has created a model for the rise and fall of empires, which he incorporates into his investment analysis."

Watch Now

Image

Murrinations Insights

Read my latest insights:

Hypersonic Missiles And The Hegemonic Arms Race

The K Wave Cycle Crisis: Food Security

The New Age Of War

Subscribe now for immediate access to all my posts! I now offer a 1 month trial costing £50, giving you instant access to my latest insights.

Read the newspapers for yesterday's news or read my Murrinations Insights for future trends and strategies.

Feedback:

“I have worked through your well-written and disturbing book “Breaking the Code of History”. I am in broad agreement with what you have written and think the book makes a great contribution towards understanding the past and the present better, thus laying a sound foundation for preparing for the future.”
Former President FW de Klerk

"David Murrin dazzles us with the scope of his learning, the depths of his experience and the vigour of his enthusiasms; all are lit with the gleam of his focus. His book is closely and tirelessly argued and superbly and relevantly illustrated, whilst his analysis is lucid and vivid. Murrin warns of the dangers ahead if the human race fails to deal with the consequences of our systematic self-destructive behaviour. This is a book that each of us should read and learn from."
Rear Admiral Richard Cobbold Director of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

Wishing you all stay well.

Warmest Wishes

David

Arkite: the name derived from my Arkent Strategy to navigate, survive and thrive through the great shift.  

Dear Arkite,

My latest keynote speech for Owen James - Future-Proofing Your Business - A Meeting of Minds is available to watch:

Future-proofing your business at a time of historic geopolitical uncertainty with David Murrin, Global Forecaster. Topics covered are empire cycles, the Wuhan virus, the US debt mountain, commodities, Putin, the speed of change between economic blocks, linear and lateral thinking and more...

Image

Murrinations Insights

Read my latest insights:

Brexit, Ukraine, Well Done Johnson And The Road To WW3

The Battle For Ukraine 7: How Russia Could Negate The NLAW Revolution

The Battle For Ukraine 6: Anticipated Russian Combat Adaptations In An Attritional War

The Battle For Ukraine 5: The Impact Of Russia’s State Of Legacy On The Empire Cycle

Subscribe now for immediate access to all my posts! I now offer a 1 month trial costing £50, giving you instant access to my latest insights.

Read the newspapers for yesterday's news or read my Murrinations Insights for future trends and strategies.

Feedback:

“I have worked through your well-written and disturbing book “Breaking the Code of History”. I am in broad agreement with what you have written and think the book makes a great contribution towards understanding the past and the present better, thus laying a sound foundation for preparing for the future.”
Former President FW de Klerk

"David Murrin dazzles us with the scope of his learning, the depths of his experience and the vigour of his enthusiasms; all are lit with the gleam of his focus. His book is closely and tirelessly argued and superbly and relevantly illustrated, whilst his analysis is lucid and vivid. Murrin warns of the dangers ahead if the human race fails to deal with the consequences of our systematic self-destructive behaviour. This is a book that each of us should read and learn from."
Rear Admiral Richard Cobbold Director of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

Wishing you all stay well.

Warmest Wishes

David

Arkite: the name derived from my Arkent Strategy to navigate, survive and thrive through the great shift.  

Dear Arkite,

My latest interview is available to watch:

"Foundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC) Development Director Ron William recently had the pleasure of interviewing David Murrin, a polymath known for his blog in Murrinations. His career has focussed on recurring patterns of history and using them to try and predict the future for markets and society in turbulent times. In his 2009 book Breaking The Code of History, he predicted that the next great viral epidemic would originate in China and that it is almost “impossible for people to compute the magnitude of the disaster we are about to experience.” David’s advisory and speaking work today is based on his direct investment experience combined with a framework that can be used to explain and qualify decisions within an investment team, aid risk assessment, and reduce biases in collective investment decisions."

Image

Murrinations Insights

Read my latest insights:

A Cuba V2 Moment Is Close At Hand

Global Britain: Time To Shift To A Wartime Economy

Rishi Sunak – Wartime Chancellor Or Boy Scout?

The Battle For Ukraine 2: Putin Is Winning His War

Subscribe now for immediate access to all my posts! I now offer a 1 month trial costing £50, giving you instant access to my latest insights.

Read the newspapers for yesterday's news or read my Murrinations Insights for future trends and strategies.

Feedback:

“I have worked through your well-written and disturbing book “Breaking the Code of History”. I am in broad agreement with what you have written and think the book makes a great contribution towards understanding the past and the present better, thus laying a sound foundation for preparing for the future.”
Former President FW de Klerk

"David Murrin dazzles us with the scope of his learning, the depths of his experience and the vigour of his enthusiasms; all are lit with the gleam of his focus. His book is closely and tirelessly argued and superbly and relevantly illustrated, whilst his analysis is lucid and vivid. Murrin warns of the dangers ahead if the human race fails to deal with the consequences of our systematic self-destructive behaviour. This is a book that each of us should read and learn from."
Rear Admiral Richard Cobbold Director of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

Wishing you all stay well.

Warmest Wishes

David

Arkite: the name derived from my Arkent Strategy to navigate, survive and thrive through the great shift.  

Dear Arkite,

The latest The State Of It podcast is available to listen to:

Britain's Response To The Russo-Ukrainian War And The Changing Nature Of Tank Warfare: The Russo-Ukrainian War Part 4

Winston and I discuss the European response to the war with a special focus on the British response in the aftermath of Brexit. We move on to discuss recent developments in Ukraine as well as the nature of tank warfare on the modern battlefield.

If you enjoy the podcast please leave a review on iTunes or the platform of your choice to help us get the message out, thank you.

Image

All my podcasts are available for free on my website or wherever you normally get your podcasts from.

Image

Murrinations Insights

Read my latest insights:

Global Britain: Time To Shift To A Wartime Economy

Rishi Sunak – Wartime Chancellor Or Boy Scout?

The Battle For Ukraine 2: Putin Is Winning His War

Subscribe now for immediate access to all my posts! I now offer a 1 month trial costing £50, giving you instant access to my latest insights.

Read the newspapers for yesterday's news or read my Murrinations Insights for future trends and strategies.

Feedback:

“I have worked through your well-written and disturbing book “Breaking the Code of History”. I am in broad agreement with what you have written and think the book makes a great contribution towards understanding the past and the present better, thus laying a sound foundation for preparing for the future.”
Former President FW de Klerk

"David Murrin dazzles us with the scope of his learning, the depths of his experience and the vigour of his enthusiasms; all are lit with the gleam of his focus. His book is closely and tirelessly argued and superbly and relevantly illustrated, whilst his analysis is lucid and vivid. Murrin warns of the dangers ahead if the human race fails to deal with the consequences of our systematic self-destructive behaviour. This is a book that each of us should read and learn from."
Rear Admiral Richard Cobbold Director of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

Wishing you all stay well.

Warmest Wishes

David

Arkite: the name derived from my Arkent Strategy to navigate, survive and thrive through the great shift.