Arkite Alerts Archive

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Watch a segment of David's latest talk

For over two decades, David Murrin has captivated audiences worldwide with his remarkable ability to predict future trends and global events. Renowned as a polymath and visionary, David’s groundbreaking work integrates the complexities of human behavior, geopolitics, and financial markets into actionable insights. As an acclaimed author, speaker, and strategist, he empowers decision-makers to navigate the uncertainties of today’s rapidly changing world.

Drawing on his expertise as a seismologist, hedge fund manager, and geopolitical theorist, David has honed unique models of human systems to predict patterns and trends with astonishing accuracy. His seminal book, Breaking the Code of History (2009), anticipated many of the transformative changes shaping our world today, from the decline of Western hegemony to the rise of China. Guided by Churchill’s timeless maxim, “The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see,” David’s deep understanding of historical cycles enables him to illuminate pathways to the future.

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David’s career journey—from studying physics and geophysics, to advising governments and corporations—has been fueled by a relentless curiosity to decode the forces that shape our collective destinies. As a speaker, he combines historical insights with practical roadmaps, helping leaders in business, defense, and finance anticipate and adapt to emerging challenges. His unique Five Phase Life Cycle of Empire framework provides a powerful lens through which to understand the dynamics of nations, markets, and institutions.

David continues to offer unparalleled expertise in predicting market movements and geopolitical shifts. With a focus on the ongoing contest between democracy and autocracy, he sheds light on China’s challenge to American dominance and its implications for global stability.

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David Murrin’s keynotes are a compelling blend of thought-provoking analysis and practical wisdom. Whether addressing corporate leaders, policymakers, or international organizations, his presentations inspire action, challenge assumptions, and offer clarity in an age of disruption.

Watch a segment of David's latest talk or book David here.

Dear Arkite,

Watch my latest interview now!

David Murrin joins Jonathan for an UnWoke conversation. The global economy, wars, History, England, U.S., personality types... there's something here for everyone!

We hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we do!

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Watch Now

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In other news the brilliant James Holland agrees with me, on the @WeHaveWaysPod podcast:

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to make defence a national priority and increase spending to 5% of GDP. I published Now Or Never; The Global Forecaster UK Strategic Defence Review in 2020, download it here or purchase a hardcopy:

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Dear Arkite,

In light of Trump winning the Presidential election and also having listened to the latest We Have Ways Of Making You Talk podcast, Trump and Hitler: A Warning From History. Where the great James Holland echos my stance that we should increase defence spending to 5% of GDP, I have released a digital copy of my Now or Never, The Global Forecaster UK Strategic Defence Review 2020. 

I feel now more than ever that Britain needs to heed the warnings from history that a strong defence helps to deter conflict. Trump's isolationist stance will only increase the vacuum and Britain needs to stand tall to fill the void.

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I'm hoping this document will help educate you and raise awareness that our defence forces are sorely lacking, at a time when they are needed most. Download your own copy to read over the weekend or purchase a hardcopy here.

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Join @Murrinraw on Instagram and facebook for pithy up to the minute commentary.

I look forward to seeing you there!

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Dear Arkite,

Listen to my latest interview on The Grant Williams podcast:

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"In the latest episode of The Grant Williams podcast, I’m joined by Global Forecaster, David Murrin who offers us some valuable insight into his background before we dive into a riveting discussion about lateral versus linear thinking, the cycles of empires, and the geopolitical tensions between the West and China.

David argues that the West is in decline while China is an ascendant power seeking global dominance and predicts an escalating series of conflicts, potentially leading to a third world war in the coming decade as China seeks to displace the US as the global hegemon.

David’s detailed analysis of China’s strategic approach and the West’s vulnerabilities make a compelling case that the world is heading towards a major confrontation with grave consequences.

Some of the issues discussed may prove challenging for listeners, but engaging with these difficult topics and considering their implications for the future are, without doubt, an important use of your time."

Listen Now!

I thoroughly enjoyed your conversation on Grant Williams’ podcast which I consumed on a long drive from N. Georgia to Birmingham Alabama this morning. One of your best.

I wanted to express my admiration for the intellectual framework and theory of entropic social systems you have created and shared with the world. I know the right people are listening to you and that the wrong people running the show are currently not, but when the moment of truth comes and the latter are found wanting and unable to respond, the right people will have been well-briefed through your insights and will be able to formulate lateral responses to the civilizational challenges we face.

Sir Steven Wilkinson KCNG - Founder & Managing Director, Good And Proper

Neil Howe's The Fourth Turning is here. What a phenomenal read. In the epilogue he talks about our "collective confusion" as a result of being in the Fourth Turning, after he has set out his thoughts about how each generation of us might emerge from this crisis period.

Turbo boost this read by also ordering Breaking the Code of History by David Murrin available directly from his website. David has spent a lifetime working on his frameworks around the ascent to and descent from empire to decline, it's breathtaking stuff. He recently laid out his latest geopolitical thinking on the Grant Williams podcast released a couple of days ago, which I can't recommend highly enough even though it is a potentially challenging listen.

Struan Malcolm Partner & COO at Fundrella

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For those of you who are relatively new to Global Forecaster, I thought it would be interesting to give you a brief overview and perspective of my work over the past two decades and some current views. Curious about the power of AI, I generated these answers using ChatGPT!
 

Question 6 - What were David Murrin's views on Brexit based on His Five stages of Empire Model?

David Murrin has viewed Brexit as a positive transformational process, considering it as a necessary step for the UK to regain sovereignty and position itself strategically in a changing global landscape. He predicted the referendum outcome, emphasising the social drivers behind the decision, such as the desire for greater independence from EU bureaucracy. However, Murrin has been critical of how Brexit has been handled, arguing that the UK government has failed to maximise its potential advantages, leaving the country underprepared for future challenges (https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/blog-entry/ww3-the-world-is-on-the-brink) (https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/blog-tags/brexit).

Question 7 - What are David Murrin's views on key leaders based on His Five Stages of Empire Model?

David Murrin is critical of Keir Starmer and the Labour Party, viewing them as ineffective in addressing the major geopolitical and economic challenges facing the UK. Murrin believes that Starmer's Labour lacks the visionary leadership needed to navigate complex global shifts, particularly in relation to China and the UK's position post-Brexit. He has expressed concerns that the party is not adequately preparing for the future, especially with respect to geopolitical threats and economic restructuring (https://www.politics.co.uk/politicslunch/2024/09/13/the-early-warning-signs-facing-keir-starmer-and-labour/) (https://www.politico.eu/article/labour-government-uk-china-relations-diplomacy-rival-elections-2024-foreign-policy-david-lammy/). Murrin also sees Starmer's Labour as continuing to miss opportunities to harness the UK's potential in a post-Brexit world with policies that he feels fail to align with the realities of global power shifts (https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/blog-tags/brexit).

David Murrin is notably critical of President Joe Biden, particularly regarding his handling of global geopolitical issues. Murrin sees Biden's leadership as part of a broader decline in Western influence, especially in relation to the US' global standing. He argues that Biden has failed to respond effectively to major challenges such as China's rise and the shifting global power dynamics. Murrin believes that Biden's policies have contributed to weakening US global leadership at a time when strong and decisive action is required (https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/the-state-of-it/id1573113137 (https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-state-of-it/id1547176135). In particular, Murrin criticises Biden’s handling of key geopolitical conflicts, including the ongoing tensions with China and Russia. He suggests that Biden's approach is reactive rather than proactive, which, in Murrin's view, leaves the US and its allies vulnerable in an increasingly competitive world (https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2024/06/11/globally-biden-receives-higher-ratings-than-trump/).

David Murrin has been highly critical of Rishi Sunak, particularly viewing his leadership as lacking the necessary political vision and strategic acumen to navigate the significant challenges the UK faces. Murrin argues that Sunak's premiership has been defined by a failure to effectively address key geopolitical and economic issues. He sees Sunak as too focused on maintaining stability within the fractured Conservative Party rather than demonstrating the bold leadership required in today's rapidly changing world. Murrin also criticises Sunak for his weak approach to defending the UK’s national security, calling him "100% the wrong person" for the job in a time of growing global tensions. Sunak's perceived detachment from ordinary people, combined with his lack of political instinct and failure to challenge the party's radical elements, has left the country in a vulnerable position (https://www.politico.eu/article/rishi-sunak-failure/) (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rishi-sunak-downfall-tory-humiliation-b2572612.html). Overall, Murrin paints Sunak as an ineffective leader, more concerned with optics than with meaningful action, and as someone unable to unite the Conservative Party or command the country's confidence during a time of crisis.

David Murrin has been consistently critical of Boris Johnson's leadership, particularly highlighting Johnson's failure to adequately defend the UK in the face of rising global threats. Murrin believes Johnson missed critical opportunities to strengthen the nation's defences, especially at a time of increased geopolitical instability. He has argued that Johnson did not respond effectively to warnings about emerging threats, such as those highlighted in Murrin's Now or Never Defence Review (https://www.politico.eu/article/rishi-sunak-failure/) (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rishi-sunak-downfall-tory-humiliation-b2572612.html). Moreover, Murrin views Johnson as having betrayed Conservative values, as having failed to deliver on the promises of Brexit, and as having allowed moral and political corruption to undermine the country. According to Murrin, this mismanagement delayed the potential benefits of Brexit and weakened the UK's position at a crucial time (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rishi-sunak-downfall-tory-humiliation-b2572612.html).

David Murrin views Donald Trump as a narcissistic figure in global politics. He acknowledges Trump's disruptive role in international affairs but is critical of his lack of long-term strategic vision. Murrin has described Trump as a "clown", implying that while Trump's presidency stirred up the political landscape, especially in challenging global norms, it lacked the coherence and foresight necessary to navigate the evolving geopolitical dynamics effectively. He believes that Trump's erratic style and nationalist policies contributed to the declining influence of the United States on the global stage (https://palisadesradio.ca/david-murrin-we-are-looking-at-a-decade-of-conflict/) (https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/blog). Despite these criticisms, Murrin recognises that Trump's rise to power was symptomatic of broader global shifts, particularly the growing polarisation in Western politics and a backlash against liberal political elites. However, Murrin remains skeptical of Trump's capacity to address the deeper systemic challenges facing the US and the global order.

If you wish to understand our ever-more entropic world, subscribe to Murrinations Gold for the price of a newspaper and see the world without those rose-tinted glasses- so you can navigate the rapids ahead.

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GLOBAL TRADER

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We Offer a Rare Opportunity To Broaden Your Perspectives in a Consensus-driven World.

• Unique, proven, and highly Predictive Geopolitical Model with 20 years plus track record. Theories | David Murrin (rmaco.com) . Breaking the Code of Markets | David Murrin. Past and Present Predictions | David Murrin
• Informed Military analysis and prediction of the course of ongoing wars
• Unique macro market analysis based on pattern recognition across 80 markets, generating trade recommendations interlinked into a holistic view.
• Unique Lateral Linear thought process with full spectrum applications Combating Linear-Lateral Polarisation With A New, Balanced Logic

The Integrated Output = Global Trader

• External CIO Access to 30-plus years of experience
• The real-time trade Execution inputs from our powerful macro market investment model, with a proven multi-year Alpha Generation track record. Financial Market Forecasts | David Murrin
• Ability to optimise your wealth generation strategy.

Can You Afford Not To Engage Us?- Just Consider how accurate our predictions on Gold and Silver have been!

I have a new feed that is designed to be short and pithy.....and Yes, I really can do that!

Asking the key questions of our time and giving some @MurrinRaw answers.

So please join me and spread the word!

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Our CIO’s Macro View is designed to give an overview of which sectors are moving and where investors should be positioned.

Operating alongside our trade execution service which provides real-time trade management.

• We provide real-time entry points and stops and recommended sizes
• Our results are published at the end of each quarter, so that our performance in various sectors can be evaluated by our clients, allowing them to assess the reliability of our forecasts and the quality of our returns. Financial Market Forecasts | David Murrin
• New trades are sent via emails providing actionable real-time trade recommendations.
• The global market sectors are Equity Indices, FX, Crypto Currencies, Bond Markets, Emerging Market FX and Indices and Commodity Markets. View Subscription Options

Our modus Operandi is to enter trades with a tight risk to stop, based on short-term pattern structures and then run our trade to multiple returns on risk using longer-term patterns aligned with our big picture views.

Our vision for our mindset is that of a sniper, observing our targets and patiently waiting for the optimum moment to enter a trade. No FOMO here!

So if you are a professional asset manager, can you not afford to Engage David | David Murrin?

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1. Do you have the in-house skills to predict the market's responses as events escalate into a global war?
2. Have you appreciated that the current conflict-escalating dynamics, which are taking place against the rising entropy of the K-wave into 2030, make de-escalation highly unlikely?
3. Are you in denial in a state of war blindness? Much as in July 1914, we are now in an unstoppable chain reaction to a full-blown regional war in the Middle East. Yet the majority of the population of the democratic world is in total denial as to the scale of the disaster ahead.
4. Have you accounted for the Delusional market behaviour? Similar to July 1914, the world and markets are in denial in a state of war blindness. Hence, we are not seeing reality reflected in markets. But remember, after the assignation of Archduke Ferdinand in 1914, the markets went sideways for a month, then when the first shot was fired, UK bonds fell 50%! To survive this situation, we must all shake off our shock and be prepared for the worst while only hoping for the best! So, re-read:
5. Are you prepared for a massive oil price shock? The key immediate economic ramification will be the massive rally in oil to $150, and over the next few years $250, as the Gulf is closed to traffic by Iran, which will be the driver behind market responses. Read; The Iran-Israel War Will Drive A Major Commodity Rally.
6. Have you factored in that China could well Initiate its war with America. In line with our predictions of a total escalation into WW3, we see a high probability that China could commence its war with America as the Middle Eastern war escalates (see Red Peril 30; Ten Reasons Why Xi Will Go To War In 2024 and Red Peril 41. American War Blindness; Part 8 Vulnerability Exposed). A key reason is an oil shock that further weakens China's economy, forcing Xi into war rather than economic collapse (see Managing Investment Risk Into A War With China).
7. Have you done the work? Can you afford not to integrate our perspectives into your investment starter?

• An Investment Strategy For WW3: Part 1
• An Investment Strategy for WW3: Part 2 – Market Behaviour During WW1
• An Investment Strategy for WW3: Part 3 – Market Behaviour During WW2
• An Investment Strategy for WW3: Part 4 – How To Preserve Wealth

If any of the above is absent from your investment scenarios, then you would be irresponsible not to subscribe to our Market-proven alpha generation models Financial Market Forecasts | David Murrin

Engage David | David Murrin