Creating Actionable Strategies For The Future
Welcome to the archive of Arkite Alerts, Global Forecaster's free newsletter notifying subscribers of the latest news, podcasts, interviews, Global Trader performance reviews and more.
Dear Arkite,
I chat with Anric Blatt, global fund and investment advisor, on his Magnum Cafe podcast covering the macroeconomic environment, inflation, the decline of America and the rise of China, WW3, lateral and linear thinking and scuba diving!
For readers of our Murrinations, you will be aware that we aim to publish an average of two per week. But since the invasion of Ukraine, we have been publishing at a much higher rate.
However, since last week and through to the end of this week, we will have published no less than 12 Murrinations, focusing on key topics around Ukraine, Israel, global polarisation, and the next evolution/revolution in British politics. Topics we consider so vital that we have front-loaded their publication.
Murrinations Insights will help you future-proof your world with investment-grade analysis, predictions and strategies, to help you anticipate future events. Based on a global model that integrates significant geopolitical, military, economic, financial market and environmental developments.
So try a 3-month trial subscription and get up to date with the future....
Murrination Insights Full Subscription (£50 per month for 3 and 6 month subscriptions or £40 per month for annual subscriptions) - You'll gain full access online to every post and also receive the headlines and the opening snippet of the latest posts direct to your inbox, as soon they are published. In addition you will also received Murrination of the Week and Follow The Prediction Threads newsletters. A full subscription will give you instant online access, as opposed to a 6 month delay for non-subscribers.
Other subscription options:
Murrination Of the Week newsletter (£9.99 per month) Released every Sunday at 9am featuring David's chosen Murrination that will provide you with the biggest insight.
The Big Picture Headline Updates newsletter (£9.99 per month) You'll receive the headlines and the opening snippet of the latest Murrinations Insights posts direct to your inbox, 9am every Friday. This gives an overall insight into what David is focusing on, providing understanding and a key overview and themes, at a more affordable price range.
Follow The Prediction Threads newsletter (£9.99 per month) Receive the related articles post-publication and further commentary to the five most recently updated Murrinations Insights direct to your inbox, daily at 7pm, allowing you to follow the thread of what David is focusing on.
A newspaper clipping from March 26th 1957:
History just goes around and around!
Dear Arkite,
As you know, I have been raising the alarm that the West’s enemies – Russia and China - are well-positioned for a surprise attack that could be devastating to the current international system. I even based one of my books, Red Lightning, on a fictional scenario that is becoming more realistic by the day.
It is the serious nature of the moment we are in that has me participating in an exclusive LIVE day-long online video event on November 30 called Crisis & Chaos: The Changing World Order. I will be candidly discussing what is unfolding globally and am sending this message to invite you to join me.
Along with yours truly, Crisis & Chaos: The Changing World Order is featuring some of the world’s most prominent military, geopolitical and economic experts. People like:
This very important LIVE online video event will cover the rapid political, economic and social transformations shaking the globe. Expect to be challenged; expect to hear ideas you have never heard before; and expect to find clarity in an ever-more chaotic world.
But you need to act quickly! The first 1,000 viewers to sign up will receive 50% off the regular price. So, hurry while this offer is available.
Again, this exclusive LIVE video event will take place on Thursday, November 30. Click here to sign up for this LIVE online video event, Crisis & Chaos: The Changing World Order.
I really hope you can join me!
Dear Arkite,
Since the end of the Cold War the majority of the populations of the West have lived with the assumption that World War III would and could never take place. Unfortunately, a realization is dawning that a global conflict is not just a possibility; it could actually happen.
Today there are so many momentous events happening. Israel is battling Hamas. Russia continues its war against Ukraine. Confrontations in the South China Sea occur nearly every week. Migrants are flooding Western countries. Inflation isn’t going away, while public and private debt levels across the West are at astronomical levels. And all of this while political dysfunction in America and Europe is growing.
“This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades.” That is what Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan, the world’s largest bank, told investors in early October.
As you know, I have been raising the alarm that the West’s enemies – Russia and China - are well-positioned for a surprise attack that could be devastating to the current international system. I even based one of my books, Red Lightning, on a fictional scenario that is becoming more realistic by the day.
To candidly discuss what is unfolding globally, I am participating in a LIVE day-long online video event on November 30 called Crisis & Chaos: The Changing World Order. In addition to me, the event will be featuring some of the world’s most prominent military, geopolitical and economic experts. People like:
• General Wesley Clark, the former Supreme Allied Command Europe of NATO
• Dr. George Friedman, founder of intelligence platforms Stratfor & Geopolitical Futures
• Dr. Pippa Malmgren, advisor to Presidents & Prime Ministers
• Elbridge Colby, former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense
• Erik Prince, former US Navy SEAL & the founder of private military company Blackwater
• David P. Goldman, Spengler columnist at Asia Times
• Marin Katusa, top hedge fund manager & NY Times best-selling author
• And several more acclaimed experts…
I am writing to personally invite you to Crisis & Chaos: The Changing World Order. This exclusive LIVE online video event will take place all day on Thursday, November 30. All you need is a computer or phone to join me and participate. I will be taking questions from the event hosts, in addition to moderated questions from you, the audience.
This very important LIVE online video event will cover the rapid political, economic and social transformations shaking the globe. Expect to be challenged; expect to hear ideas you have never heard before; and expect to find clarity in an ever-more chaotic world.
But you need to act quickly! The first 1,000 viewers to sign up will receive 50% off the regular price. So, hurry while this offer is available.
Again, this exclusive LIVE video event will take place on Thursday, November 30. Click here to sign up for this LIVE online video event, Crisis & Chaos: The Changing World Order.
I really hope you can join me!
Dear Arkite,
I was recently interviewed for the Nov/Dec 2023 edition of Pulse magazine, the bi-monthly magazine solely dedicated to estates and facilities across NHS England.
The NHS is broken and unless there is meaningful reform of both system and leadership, the consequences will be catastrophic for Britain, and not just in terms of health and wellbeing, but in time of war, warns geopolitical forecaster and author of Breaking the Code of History, David Murrin.
Interview by Jane Renton.
Crisis & Chaos: The Changing World Order will cover the rapid political, economic and social transformations shaking the globe. I will be taking questions from the event hosts, in addition to moderated questions from you, the audience. Expect to be challenged; expect to hear ideas you have never heard before; and expect to find clarity in an ever-more chaotic world.
LIVE online video event. Click here to sign up and join me for this exclusive LIVE video event taking place on Thursday, November 30.
Dear Arkite,
My next speaking event is for Goldman Sachs titled A New World Order, details below:
David Murrin - Principal of Global Forecaster. With a long background as an asset manager, military historian, and strategic political/military Thinker. He is the Author of Breaking the Code of History which charted and then predicted the rise and fall of empires and wars, accurately predicting the path of major geopolitical events over the past two decades. Including the arrival of the Pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine.
Chris Parry - Formerly a Rear Admiral in the Royal Navy and a NATO commander, Dr Chris Parry runs a geopolitical forecasting company and is a leading strategic thinker, forecaster and author.
Understanding the geopolitics of the 21st century:
Admittance is by invitation only.
This particular event is by invitation only but if you want to hear me discuss all of these topics then the Crisis & Chaos: The Changing World Order LIVE online video event is for you! Click here to sign up and join me for this exclusive LIVE video event taking place on Thursday, November 30.
Dear Arkite,
This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades.” That is what Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan, the world’s largest bank, told investors in early October.
Meanwhile, respected voices from The Economist to Elon Musk are warning the possibility of a real global conflict is rising:
As you know, I have been raising the alarm that the West’s enemies – Russia and China - are well-positioned for a surprise attack that could be devastating to the current international system. I even based one of my books, Red Lightning, on a fictional scenario that is becoming more realistic by the day.
This is why I am writing to personally invite you to Crisis & Chaos: The Changing World Order. This exclusive LIVE online video event will take place all day on Thursday, November 30. I will be a featured speaker alongside some of the world’s most prominent military, geopolitical and economic experts. People like:
• General Wesley Clark, the former Supreme Allied Command Europe of NATO
• Dr. George Friedman, founder of intelligence platforms Stratfor & Geopolitical Futures
• Dr. Pippa Malmgren, advisor to Presidents & Prime Ministers
• Elbridge Colby, former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense
• Erik Prince, former US Navy SEAL & the founder of private military company Blackwater
• David P. Goldman, Spengler columnist at Asia Times
• Marin Katusa, top hedge fund manager & NY Times best-selling author
• And several more acclaimed experts…
Since the end of the Cold War the majority of the populations of the West have lived with the assumption that World War III would and could never take place. Unfortunately, the realization is dawning that a global conflict is not just a possibility; it could actually happen.
Today there are so many momentous events happening. Israel is battling Hamas. Russia continues its war against Ukraine. Confrontations in the South China Sea occur nearly every week. Migrants are flooding Western countries. Inflation isn’t going away, while public and private debt levels across the West are at astronomical levels. And all of this while political dysfunction in America and Europe is growing.
Crisis & Chaos: The Changing World Order will cover the rapid political, economic and social transformations shaking the globe. I will be taking questions from the event hosts, in addition to moderated questions from you, the audience. Expect to be challenged; expect to hear ideas you have never heard before; and expect to find clarity in an ever-more chaotic world.
All you need is a computer or phone to join me and participate. But you need to act quickly! The first 1,000 viewers to sign up will receive 50% off the regular price. So, hurry while this offer is available.
Again, this exclusive LIVE video event will take place on Thursday, November 30. Click here to sign up and join me for this LIVE online video event, Crisis & Chaos: The Changing World Order.
I really hope to see you there!
Dear Arkite,
I wrote this article in March 2018, just one of many prescient Murrinations Insights you can find on my website:
We have often discussed the psychology of national aggression, based on where each party is on their empire cycle. In the case of Britain and Russia, both parties have been going through post-regionalisation which represents expansive energy. Britain’s energy has been focussed on a peaceful economic and political expression, but in the process it has neglected its self-defence. Russia in contrast has founded its expansion on pure aggression and force projection. Putin has sought to take advantage of the weakness of the Obama administration and that of the EU states, who have to date responded with passivity. The arrival of Trump has changed Putin’s calculus as we shall discuss later.
In nature even the strongest predators choose the weakest prey, to minimise the risk of injury. It is thus so with aggressive nations who will only attack when they feel the odds are in their favour. Britain is now facing a whirlwind that was created due to an injuring policy of national weakness. This trend ran through the Blair, Brown, Cameron, and now May’s Governments and had a common theme. It consisted of policies that ran down defence and believed that aggressive national behaviour which threatened Britain’s security was a thing of the past. They failed to grasp that self-defence begins with the intention to defend oneself with overwhelming force when attacked. However, that intention then needs to be matched by the capability to follow the intention through with deadly force if necessary. Not only have British politicians collectively neglected our defence (with the exception of the current defence minister Williamson), thinking that the NHS was more important, but they have failed to understand the vital concept of peace through strength.
Britain’s hollowed-out defence policy has sent a clear signal to Mr Putin (and the rest of the world) that Britain is weak. The warning signs have been there for years but all have been swept under the carpet: Russian planes testing our air-defences with frightening regularity and Russian warships sailing through the channel escorted with just one ageing Royal Navy (RN) frigate. Most important is the threat to and viability of, our nuclear deterrent in a world where nuclear weapons guarantee national security at the highest level of conflict. Due to the most severe defence cuts the RN now lacks critical anti-submarine capability, dedicated ASW frigates, plane and most importantly nuclear hunter killer submarines that are all vital in de-lousing the waters through which our Ballistic submarines transit into the open waters. We must now recognise that our ballistic boats are in all probability being followed by Russian hunter Killers and thus have been neutralised by the Russian navy. Something the RN and USN did often in the cold war but which was never achieved by the USSR in reverse. Meanwhile we allowed the integration of crooked Russian oligarchs (most directly linked to Putin) into our society which has brought all kinds of consequences that are in contravention to British values. The Conservative party takes money from Russian sources, and Putin has been killing with impunity on British soil, people who have actually helped strengthen Britain’s national security. All of these things are a national disgrace.
Putin’s assessment of Britain’s leadership would have included one of weakness of the PM, and paralysis within the cabinet over Brexit. Although NATO and the EU are separate, there would be an overlap of interest that might prove advantageous to him. Furthermore he knows that Trump is focussed on the North Korean issue, and that never since 1939 have the USA, UK and EU has such disparate agendas. Lastly, about one month ago Putin’s middle- Eastern mercenaries suffered a massacre at America’s hand and in Putin’s eyes that personally humiliated him. Thus he no doubt looked around and sought somewhere to reassert himself, and that was a nerve gas attack in Britain. As he 100% controls the press in Russia and thus he knew that he could use the UK’s response to polarise his people into the mind-set that they were under attack during his upcoming election, an age old tactic of dictatorial regimes.
However there is another perspective that the West needs to be aware of, and that is that Russia is a commodity-based economy. Over the next year commodity prices will fall and this will increase pressure on the Russian economy. Thus Putin seeks to blame the West and its sanctions, to deflect attention from his leadership. Such wars are known as “trough wars” and are motivated from a position of economic weakness not strength. In that context the Salisbury attack should be viewed as an ongoing risk because Putin is incentivised to escalate the situation. Considering Britain’s position over the next few years we should also brace ourselves for the next rally in commodity process from 2019-2027 which will make Russia very wealthy again and allow it to increase its defence spending by multiples.
During the cold war chemical, biological and nuclear weapons were all classed as weapons of mass destruction. The use of any one of which would open the door to reprisals which included nuclear weapons. Today thanks to Obama, the “red line” was rubbed out in Syria. Russia and its proxy Syria have used chemical weapons where they see fit, without fear of reprisal. Furthermore the Russian strategy has pioneered the concept of taking land and dropping a small nuclear weapon on those trying to recapture it. The assumption being that the other side will not escalate the conflict to mutually assured destruction. The attack in Salisbury has all the same hall marks: to kill with a Russian linked nerve agent sending key messages, and limit any reprisals with threats of escalation. Thus it is vital that the UK calls Russia’s bluff and responds most severely. Today we have America’s full support, but there might soon come a time when our priorities diverge and we have to stand alone. The Salisbury attack is Britain’s national wake up and a call to arms. It is a clear message to May that national security is now the most important issue we face. We must enhance both our intelligence services and our armed forces. The intelligence service simultaneously face threats from Islamic extremism, Russia and China and are just not large enough to cope with the multiple threats. Meanwhile we urgently need to significantly enlarge our armed forces, raising spending to 5% of GDP, before it is too late to stem the rising tide of dictatorial aggression against the free world, of which Britain is one of the great Champions.
Britain need to learn a key lesson from America which is made all the more relevant by Brexit and Britain walking its' own path back to a global maritime economy. In contrast to the May Government where weakness has been the order of the day, Mr Trump has taken a very robust approach towards ensuring American security. He has committed to a massive jump in defence spending that is only the start of what is required to stay ahead of China. Trump has been sending a very strong message, that he is the opposite of Obama. This process commenced in Syria when Trump sent 52 cruise missiles to land on the Syrian airfield demonstrating that Syria’s use of chemical weapons would not be tolerated. Simultaneously he sent a robust message to Putin that his expansionary aims in the Middle East would not be tolerated. The most recent example being the large scale massacre of proxy Russian soldiers in the Middle East. At the same time the 52 cruise missiles also sent a clear message to President Xi of China that Trump would not tolerate his continued support of North Korea as an ally with the direct aim of weakening American influence. Trump’s strength on this matter has no doubt lead to the potential of direct talks between Kim and Trump after which there will be a binary outcome. Either Kim gives up his nuclear weapons or he will be attacked pre-emptively. During the application of pressure to North Korea, Trump also revealed to the world that China was pulling Kim’s strings and as such was America’s real protagonist. Thus he commenced a trade war designed to weaken China and encourage America’s allies to start spending on defence to make the West stronger overall. There is no doubt that in the short-term Trump is reversing the trend of American imperial decline.
For those that find this message hard to absorb, history is full of examples of the meek who perished under the boots of dictators. The hard reality is that there is only one way to co-exist with powerful nations lead by total dictators like Putin and Xi, and that is with the strongest of defence policies. But a strong military also needs to be led by strong leaders who leave the aggressor in no doubt that they place themselves at risk if they move first. The message must ring clear from Britain’s leadership that will we never allow themselves to be bullied in even the smallest way. That means that we have to revert to cold war thinking and push bank against Russia by deploying our hunter killer submarines to the arctic region, where they can resume their patrols into the zones where Russian ballistic submarines operate in protected bastions with current impunity. Additionally from now on every Russian navel vessel and surveillance ship should be shadowed upon departure from Russian waters. Any chinks in our armour will only encourage worse acts of aggression. Most of all we must remember that however expensive an arms race seems, it is always cheaper than the war that it fails to stop.
Murrination Of the Week newsletter (£9.99 per month) Released every Sunday at 9am featuring David's chosen Murrination that will provide you with the biggest insight.
The Big Picture Headline Updates newsletter (£9.99 per month) You'll receive the headlines and the opening snippet of the latest Murrinations Insights posts direct to your inbox, 9am every Friday. This gives an overall insight into what David is focusing on, providing understanding and a key overview and themes, at a more affordable price range.
Follow The Prediction Threads newsletter (£9.99 per month) Receive the related articles post-publication and further commentary to the five most recently updated Murrinations Insights direct to your inbox, daily at 7pm, allowing you to follow the thread of what David is focusing on.
Murrination Insights Full Subscription (£50 per month for 3 and 6 month subscriptions or £40 per month for annual subscriptions) - You'll gain full access online to every post and also receive the headlines and the opening snippet of the latest posts direct to your inbox, as soon they are published. In addition you will also received Murrination of the Week and Follow The Prediction Threads newsletters. A full subscription will give you instant online access, as opposed to a 6 month delay for non-subscribers.
Dear Arkite,
Watch my latest interview with NorthStarBadCharts covers markets, Gold, Bitcoin, economics, war and much more!
Dear Arkite,
My latest interview on Palisades Gold Radio is out now:
"Tom Bodrovics (Palisades Gold Radio) is once again joined by global forecaster and author David Murrin to discuss global conflicts and the cycles that lead to them. Murrin believes that China is currently challenging the U.S. in a hegemonic battle, influenced by the Kondratiev cycles that have been playing out for centuries. He sees war as a natural selection process that arises when an empire reaches its peak, and describes it as entropic. Murrin believes that war is inevitable and that China is using hostile actions such as the release of COVID-19 and IP extraction to challenge the U.S. The ongoing Ukrainian-Russian conflict is described as a “bloody stalemate” due to the U.S.’s lack of support for Ukraine. Murrin argues that until America provides Ukraine with the necessary resources and confronts Putin with strength, he will continue to gain ground. He also discussed the role of leadership in handling the COVID-19 pandemic, the complexity of the Middle East conflict, and the need for Western countries to create coherence and order in order to present a strong front against external challenges."
Murrination Of the Week newsletter (£9.99 per month) Released every Sunday at 9am featuring David's chosen Murrination that will provide you with the biggest insight.
The Big Picture Headline Updates newsletter (£9.99 per month) You'll receive the headlines and the opening snippet of the latest Murrinations Insights posts direct to your inbox, 9am every Friday. This gives an overall insight into what David is focusing on, providing understanding and a key overview and themes, at a more affordable price range.
Follow The Prediction Threads newsletter (£9.99 per month) Receive the related articles post-publication and further commentary to the five most recently updated Murrinations Insights direct to your inbox, daily at 7pm, allowing you to follow the thread of what David is focusing on.
Murrination Insights Full Subscription (£50 per month for 3 and 6 month subscriptions or £40 per month for annual subscriptions) - You'll gain full access online to every post and also receive the headlines and the opening snippet of the latest posts direct to your inbox, as soon they are published. In addition you will also received Murrination of the Week and Follow The Prediction Threads newsletters. A full subscription will give you instant online access, as opposed to a 6 month delay for non-subscribers.
I aim to provide early warnings of geopolitical and economic shifts, allowing leaders and the public to anticipate and navigate critical inflection points.
Historical patterns leading to WW1 and WW2 and our unique behavioural models all point to the fact WW3 has already started!
For over a decade, I have warned that allowing a strategic competitor like China to own critical parts of Britain’s—and the wider West’s—infrastructure was nothing short of national suicide.
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