Understanding the Interconnected World of Global Forecaster

Posted by David Murrin on Thu, 13/03/2025 - 08:00

Last Update: Tue, 25/03/2025 - 17:22

Looking to the future, my aspiration and most profound hope is that through the development of a new science of the study of human cycles—one dedicated to studying humanity’s past and present cycles and collective behaviour, Global Forecaster will provide leaders and the public with early warnings of impending dangers, along with strategies to mitigate risks and create the most favourable outcomes. In this pursuit, I have been inspired by Isaac Asimov’s Foundation series, which presents a compelling vision of the future through the concept of psychohistory—a mathematical discipline that predicts large-scale societal trends.

The story follows Hari Seldon, a visionary mathematician who foresees the inevitable fall of the Galactic Empire. Using psychohistory, he devises a plan to shorten the ensuing dark age, reducing its duration from 30,000 years to just 1,000. To achieve this, he established the Foundation, a group dedicated to preserving knowledge and guiding civilisation through a carefully controlled sequence of crises. Seldon’s predictions rest on the principle that while individuals are unpredictable, large populations follow statistical and historical patterns that can be forecasted with remarkable accuracy. The core principle of Global Forecaster.

Throughout history, civilisations have risen and fallen in predictable cycles shaped by economic, military, and cultural forces. My work in forecasting is rooted in the understanding that patterns of expansion and contraction determine the fate of nations, superimposed on which is an entropy cycle of 108-1112 years which I call the war cycle. While psychohistory is a fictional construct, its core premise—that large-scale human behaviour follows discernible patterns—is very real and forms the foundation of my geopolitical and financial analysis.

In Foundation, Seldon predicts the collapse of the Galactic Empire and devises a strategy to navigate the period of chaos that follows. His creation of the Foundation mirrors my own approach to forecasting global trends. Warning as far back in 2002 of The decline of Western dominance and the resurgence of emerging China in what I call the Great Shift. That would usher in WW3 from 2022 onwards because geopolitical shifts follow historical cycles that can be anticipated and, crucially, prepared for. The past is not just a record of what has been—it is a roadmap for what is to come.

Seldon’s concept of Seldon Crises—preordained moments of transformation—closely aligns with my identification of critical inflexion points in global affairs. Empires do not collapse overnight; they follow a trajectory that can be measured and projected. Recognising these patterns allows leaders, investors, and policymakers to position themselves ahead of seismic shifts, mitigating risk and capitalising on emerging opportunities.

Asimov’s vision in Foundation is not just a work of fiction; it reflects a deeper truth—one that underscores the necessity of historical analysis in shaping the future. My work is dedicated to this principle: by understanding the rhythms of history, we can anticipate and navigate the challenges of tomorrow. The question is not whether change is coming but whether we can anticipate it and are prepared to meet it head-on in the demand for inevitable adaptation.

Index

1.0 - The Origins of Murrinations
2.0 - Aspirations
3.0 - Global Trader
4.0 - Global Forecaster Strategy and Future
5.0 - Our Theories
6.0 - Five Stages of Empire
7.0 - K-Wave and War Cycles
8.0 - Polarisation and the Road to War
9.0 - The Theory of Anti-Entropic Human Evolution - Lateralisation
10.0 - Escalation into WW3
11.0 - Grand Strategy
12.0 - Weapons
13.0 - COVID, AKA the Wuhan Pandemic
14.0 - Monitoring Other Countries
15.0 - Global Politics
16.0 - Science
17.0 - Finance and Markets
18.0 - Philosophy
19.0 - Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs)
20.0 - My Annual Predictions

1.0 - The Origins of Murrinations

Murrinations predate Global Forecaster and go back to 2010, just after the publishing of Breaking the Code of History. Their purpose was to update followers of BTCH as to how the predictions for the decades ahead were unfolding, such as the rise of China, and to create a venue for new predictions around key geopolitical topics such as Brexit.

A decade later, that construct grew into Global Forecaster, based on the scary prospect that the world was unfolding just as BTCH predicted and that the trend of increased global entropy would bring about a decade of super entropic events, including the onset of WW3 that would change our world. Hence, I called the 2020-2030 decade the Age of Consciousness or Catastrophe and created very specific Global Forecaster Mission Statements that would seek to facilitate a greater awareness of the unconscious patterns and war cycles of human history that were launching us into yet another global conflict.

Hence, my book Lions Led By Lions looked at the causes of WW1 and parallels with Germany and China, then how British lateralisation and the development of combined arms warfare led to a stunning victory at the Battle of Amines on August 8^th 1918 and victory 100 days later. Then, in 2020, I wrote a defence review for the UK called Now Or Never, and when that was ignored, in a last desperate warning, I wrote Red Lightning to explain how China was on course to win WW3.

2.0 - Aspirations

My aspiration was that, forearmed, we as collective humanity and especially the Western World might make better choices than our forbearers and avoid catastrophe by creating full-spectrum deterrence to deter the rising Axis of Autocracy agglomerating around a rising militaristic China, thus preventing WW3. This is a dynamic that would have demanded that leaders and the electorate move into a higher state of collective consciousness, to understand past collective patterns and to shape new, more constructive behaviours.

Sadly, there is very little evidence that there has been any such enhancement of our collective shift to a higher consciousness, as judged by the worsening geopolitical picture. However, that is not a surprise, as humans only seem to make quantum shifts in awareness when we look over the precipice. So, to the precipice it appears that we are all marching in the 2030 War Cycle peak of entropy. However, we remain hopeful that mankind will make that jump in our darkest hours ahead.

3.0 - Global Trader

In conjunction with our macro models, we also use our market models in Global Trader to predict 80 macro markets in six sectors and some 200 stocks. This creates a three-dimensional market matrix that generates signals that feed into our macro models with the precise timing of inflation surges, movements in bonds stocks and FX, all of which anchors our macro models in the real-time world. However, it goes further in effectively offering a macro hedge fund with an impressive proven alpha generation track record and which continues to support our impressive track record of real-time geopolitical and market predictions that has expanded our footprint of followers and subscribers in the asset management space.

4.0 - Global Forecaster Strategy and Future

Our strategy has been to use our Global Forecaster macro models to explain and predict real-world geopolitical movements, in so doing, transferring knowledge and a new way to understand our human world that will be more anti-entropic. With our Breaking the Code of History scenario playing out all around us, now would be a good time to map out the overall construct of the Murrination topics that we have been covering over the past half-decade of Global Forecaster so that you can all see the matrixed interlinkage of the webs of a very interlinked, multi-dimensional human world.

5.0 - Our Theories

Our theories are the starting place for Global Forecaster's analysis and the basis of all Murrinations, the core to which were outlined in Breaking the Code of History; the Five Stages of Empire or the Five-Phase Life Cycle, the K-Wave and war cycles, Polarisation and the Road to War, and The Theory of Warfare.

However, in early 2020, I added a new theory - The Theory of Anti-Entropic Human Evolution - which defined how individuals behaved within human collective systems and which I use to analyse individuals, and especially national leaders, to predict their impact. In this theory, we also introduced the power dynamics of lateralisation within the context of the cycle of empires. Last but not least came The Theory of Anti-Entropy in Human Systems, which explained the fundamental drivers as to why and how humanity self-organises and manifests all the previous theories, a construct that has similarities to the holy grail of physics - unified field theory. Some examples of our Murrinations as they fall into various topics and how they are interrelated are outlined below;

6.0 - Five Stages of Empire

I have written numerous Murrinations on our interpretation of the key nations' positions on their empire cycles and the great shift of power from East to West.

They include the many dimensions of the expansion of China's military challenge in our Red Peril series:

In this series, I examined the relationship between globalisation and hegemony in the case of the British Empire and America:

In this series, I examined in detail America in its late phase of terminal decline:

In this series, i marked the end of Pax America:

In this examination of decline, I sought to pass on the lessons from the fall of the British Empire to America:

In this Murrination, I explained that systems in decline have weak immune systems that are exposed to infiltration:

Why Has the West Proven so Easy to Infiltrate and Manipulate?

In this series, I warned against the threat of Chinese innovation as a function of expansion to the empire;

7.0 - K-Wave and War Cycles

The 112-year war cycle and its half-brother the 54-56-year K-wave cycle is shaping the world around us into the 2030 peak of its entropy cycle. In these Murrinations, I explained the impact and consequences from war to higher inflation, food security, and the cost-of-living crisis.

8.0 - Polarisation and the Road to War

Polarisation is the process that we defined as two sides walking a path of increasing hostility until kinetic conflict breaks out. In the Murrinations below, I explored the many dimensions of this process in today's world:

9.0 - The Theory of Anti-Entropic Human Evolution - Lateralisation

There are many aspects to this theory that we have used to explain the unfolding world, but one of the most often used is our Theory of Lateralisation. Using this theory, I have created an engine for designed lateralisation that emulates the natural process driven by entropic shock epitomised by war:

10.0 - Escalation into WW3

At the heart of our analysis is the unfolding conflict cycle which we have interpreted through our Theory of Warfare and The 108-112 Year Hegemonic War Cycle and that has, since Breaking the Code of History (2009), predicted a hegemonic clash between China and America in 2025. I have dedicated a significant response to the topic of war because this decade will be defined by it course.

WW3: 51 Murrinations covering the commencement of WW3 from the invasion of Ukraine to today, including key new weapons that will dominate the battlefields:

WW3 started with the invasion of Ukraine banner

The Battle for Ukraine: 76 Murrinations covering the progression of the war over the past three years as Ukraine struggles for its survival.

Iran's War on Isreal: 15 Murrinations on Iran’s multi-tentacles that have been built and recently employed to attack and potentially eradicate Israel as a nation-state in this regional war linked to the Axis of Autocracy:

Red Peril: 41 Murrinations specifically covering the rise of China's military threat and the inevitability of it going to war with America and the West:

War blindness: The term we have coined to explain how and why the outbreak of significant wars catches declining empires by surprise due to the denial of a hostile aggressor challenging the empire:

Red Peril 41: American War Blindness Part 1

Lessons from past wars: Examined the numerous key lessons from past wars:

The scandal of UK defencelessness: This has been a regular topic of our Murrinations from our 2020 defence review Now Or Never in which I warned that major war was inevitable from 2022 onwards and that we had to invest in defence to create effective deterrence measures:

11.0 - Grand Strategy

Given our prediction that large-scale warfare would be the defining character of the 2020-2030 decade, we have extensively studied the loss of grand strategy incorporation in Western national policy from all aspects of historical and current strategic processes:

The lessons that I derived are summarised in:

The importance of maritime hegemony cannot be overemphasised:

Critical to maritime hegemony is the control of key sea lane choke points:

Sound strategy is not just the domain of hard and soft power but also key infrastructures like the NHS:

Britain Urgently Needs a New Pandemic Strategy and NHS Reform

Having predicted that WW3 was inevitable, under our CIO's view, I have created one of the most in-depth studies of market behaviour during WW1 and WW2 and created a model for navigating WW3 ahead for our CIO subscribers - Financial Market Forecasts:

12.0 - Weapons

Many of the public have very little knowledge or interest in the weapons systems with which WW3 will be fought. However, we have long argued that such knowledge is critical in understanding the great power balance and path of ongoing and future wars. It was this branch of my study that detected the arrival in service of the Chinese DF-21 in 2018 as an anti-ship ballistic missile designed to destroy US carrier power. The deployment of this asymmetric weapon of hegemonic challenge started the gun first for an arms race, followed by a direct military challenge to America, ending in a potentially inevitable kinetic WW3. A situation exacerbated by the PLAN deployment of hypersonic DF-17 missiles that are currently unstoppable:

13.0 - COVID, AKA the Wuhan Pandemic

In Breaking the Code of History, I warned that the next Global pandemic would come from a Chinese weapons lab seeking to develop a weapon of asymmetric hegemonic challenge. So when the Wuhan pandemic erupted in December 2019, I was on the case and warned that a global pandemic was inevitable, having tracked its voracious transmission characteristics.

The Global Snake Pandemic is Coming (published on 30/01/2020)
The Wuhan Virus - Freak of Nature or Bioweapon? (published on 01/02/2020 )

In this series, I discussed aspects of the unfolding pandemic:

I continued to ask the big question and provide our analysis

Did the CCP Intentionally Release the Wuhan Pandemic?

Looking for solutions, I sought to provide a new economic strategy:

A Strategy to Turbo Charge the UK Economy Against the Wuhan Virus and Brexit

In this Murrination, I predicted that Omicron was the third and last cycle of the pandemic and certainly did not require a lockdown:

Time to Break the Hold of Covid Restrictions in the UK

In MY major report, I covered the numerous lessons and questions around the pandemic:

Finally, we looked at the lessons and judgements that should be made:

14.0 - Monitoring Other Countries

15.0 - Global Politics

The study and prediction of the politics of empires and nations is very much linked to the Five Stages of Empire model and the entropy cycle of the K-wave. Together, these two theories have provided powerful insights and predictive power over some 20 years of political machinations.

The perfect example of the intersection of these two theories is outlined in:

Lessons from Past Entropy Shocks and the Move to the Right of Politics

Brexit: Over 75 Murrinations covered what I framed as a peaceful regional civil war in the new British cycle whose social purpose was to lateralise Britain to allow it to become more adaptive and expand within the context of a declining Western empire system:

Elections: Predictions in America and the UK that were successful except Trump's recent election:

Can the Conservatives Rebirth Themselves?: The Centralist Lived by the Sword and then Died by the Sword

Trump: 32 Murrinations on his two presidencies:

Starmer: 17 Murrinations on his disastrous leadership:

Sunak: 18 Murrinations on his disastrous leadership:

Truss: 6 Murrinations on her short term in office, where she attempted to apply the lateral polices the nation needed to change direction for the betterL

Reformation of the NHS: Some 6 Murrinations on how to reform the NHS and switch spending to defence:

16 - Dark Psychology

In this Murrination series, I explore dark psychology, with a particular focus on narcissism and its various manifestations. At their core, narcissists are energy vampires, extracting energy from individuals and entire societies to serve their own purposes. In doing so, they diminish the collective productivity and stability of individuals and nations. When national leaders embody narcissism, the consequences are always catastrophic—leading to widespread death, destruction, and suffering. I will examine the dynamics of narcissism, particularly as it relates to Trump, Putin, and Xi—the three dominant leaders shaping our world today, driving us toward a full-scale World War III, and inflicting untold suffering.

Understanding the nature of narcissism is essential for everyone, as its impact extends far beyond individuals—it influences the course of history itself. This series will include:

Dark Psychology 1: Understanding Narcissism - cover the Origins of Narcissism, its various manifestations, its energy supply dynamics, control mechanisms, projects, and its ultra-dangerous nature.
Dark Psychology 2: Narcissism and War Cycles - explains how narcissists have shaped our world, how they hide among us and trigger the hegemonic war cycles, and how to recognise them before they rise to power.
Dark Psychology 3; Trump’s Narcissistic Profile - delves into the mind of Trump and his extreme messianic narcissistic behaviour.
Trump 15: The Art of Stealing a Nation - having understood Trump's narcissism, we examine his career path as a failed deal maker and massive borrower and how it bodes for America's future.
Dark Psychology 4; Putin's Narcissistic Profile - we look at Putin’s psychopathic narcissism and his strengths and weaknesses.
WW3 52; How 25 Years Ago The Sinking of The Kursk Exposed Putin as Monster
Dark Psychology 5; Putin's Control Over Trump - we examine how Putin has controlled Trump.
Dark Psychology 6; Narcissistic Self Defence Lessons - How to identify and manage narcissism in our everyday lives.

17.0 - Science

Staying on the edge of the ever-expanding scientific horizon linked to the innovation cycle is a critical element in understanding human advances and social evolution. In particular, we have been looking at the following two topics:

The Quantum Revolution:

The Q revolution will bring one of the greatest revolutions in science, engineering and our understanding of human consciousness. But before that, it will shape the unfolding of WW3 ahead.

The AI Revolution:

The AI evolution Is another huge shift ahead that will affect every aspect of our lives. Core to which will be the nature of warfare and weapons in the unfolding WW3. Hence the massive drive in China to gain global AI dominance.

18.0 - Finance and Markets

Our Murrinations are predominantly focused on geopolitics, while our Global Trader product examines the world of markets and finance. However, at the intersection of geopolitics is an interface with markets, where they impact economies and politics. For more information, see Financial Market Forecasts.

Bitcoin:

Money Printing:

Inflation:

Safe Havens:

Safe Haven Rallies Warn of Danger Ahead

House Prices:

The Bursting of the UK House Price Bubble

19.0 - Philosophy

The human condition and our understanding of how we think and the nature of consciousness is an area of core importance to the human story:

20.0 - Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs)

There are now some 18 Murrinations outlining the evidence around UAPs and USOs based on the best available evidence because the existence of NHI (non-human intelligence) is a game changer for humanity. As followers of Global Forecaster, you will know that our work is firmly grounded in the science of the human physical and psychological world. Our mission objective can be found on our website (Official website of David Murrin, Global Forecaster). Core to that process is:

We study cycles within history to locate the position of nations and markets in the present day and then to predict future events.

But additionally:

We seek to present truths even if they are uncomfortable and to raise the individual and collective consciousness.
We seek to confront and expose malign energy wherever it may manifest in human systems.
We seek to encourage a new balance in lateral and linear thinking to enhance our adaptability and human anti-entropy.
We seek to share our knowledge to empower our readers and subscribers with more realistic ways of understanding our human world and how best to create more favourable outcomes, especially when faced with global challenges such as the role of economic cycles, warfare in human evolution, climate change, and any other topic of significant importance to mankind.

The sentence 'any other topic of significant importance to mankind' is relevant to the UFO-UAP issue. Since I was young, I have followed the UFO story, especially after a conversation with a family friend who worked for Project Blue Book back in 1974. But it was not a topic I was prepared to discuss publicly until 2017 with the release of the 2004 USS Nimitz Tic Tac video, which showed a craft that moved without mass. At that point, the story moved up a gear from the question of ‘Do they exist?’ to one of ‘What are UAP doing here?’. In May 2021, we published our first Murrination on the UFO-UAP phenomena. Then came the move to yet another next level in 2022 with the first congressional UAP hearings, followed by the enactment of the UAP Disclosure Act of 2023. At that point, everyone on the planet should have been talking about what was revealed - a paradigm-changing revelation that will forever change humanity's understanding of itself. Today, the journey to disclosure and greater global UAP awareness is building momentum. The recently released book Imminent by Luis Elizondo exposes the incredible evidence outlined by a key government insider-turned-whistleblower, which is a game changer for humanity. For more information, we recommend you watch this new film on Prime Video.

Additionally, a further area of interest is the correlation between UAP, war, and nuclear weapons, which crosses over into the domain of the unfolding of WW3 in the current entropic K-wave pulse into 2030. In addition, the potential duration and scale of the UAP cover-up goes to the heart of the nature of Western democratic governments.