The Kondratieff cycle represents fundamental shifts in economic power, innovation, and conflicts over resource allocation – often marking the end of an old economic order and setting the stage for a new wave of innovation and prosperity. War and major international conflicts happen in the years approaching the peak of the Kondratieff wave. David Murrin takes this analysis one step further, however. He describes the Kondratieff waves as cycles of entropy—periods characterised by increasing disorder and friction within global human social systems. While Kondratieff originally identified these as roughly 54–56-year economic cycles marked by recurring peaks of conflict, Murrin has expanded this concept to what he terms a major "war cycle," which encompasses two Kondratieff waves, totalling around 108–118 years. Murrin argues this extended cycle better captures the full rhythm of large-scale hegemonic conflicts. The peaks of these extended cycles are marked not just by economic downturns but by intense geopolitical friction, that alter the world order. And this is where we are now! In this week’s LCI interview you’ll discover...
- Why David firmly believes we entered World War 3 back in 2022, with Russia's invasion of Ukraine marking the onset.
- How current global events align precisely with historical cycles of war and empire—specifically his identified 108–112-year war cycle, consisting of two Kondratieff waves.
- The concept of "entropy waves," how they trigger global friction, and why conflicts consistently emerge near the peak of the cycle.
- Insights into America's stage of "terminal decline" in the broader historical pattern of empirical rise and fall.
- The deeper historical and regional complexities at play in the Israel-Gaza conflict with Trump's provocative stance further fuelling geopolitical tensions.
- Why David sees China as the central force behind current geopolitical tensions, empowering aggressive actions from nations like Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
- The critical significance of Ukraine—not as a minor regional conflict but as a major global battle indicative of this larger, ongoing war cycle.
- How the current geopolitical instability fits into a repeated pattern of history, forecasting substantial global upheaval before the cycle's expected peak in 2030.
The interview is a must-watch for anyone seeking clarity about today's chaotic geopolitical landscape and future developments.
Feedback
Gosh. I wish Murrin had of gone into how we win in all of this. Our faith in governments is at a all time LOW. Its almost impossible to see them making the correct, important decisions. Very careful financial decisions need to be made from here. Maybe exiting early in the 18 y cycle is now needs to be considered.
@lukecashmore6570
Great interview with David Murrin. It was riveting to listen to you both. I feel everyone should hear that interview. How do you (and David) feel about a subscriber such as me sharing it with non-subscribers like family and friends. Also what about the next level such as politicians and independent media operators on you tube etc. I would probably leave it up to you or David to do the second part.
I know you try to bend the ear of politicians regarding the real estate cycle via Prosper Australia but do you know if David has any influence with British or European politicians regarding the content of your interview about the geopolitical consequences if democracies fail to see and act on the authoritarian threats that face us right now. Do you know if he has or would be willing to try to convince our Australian political leaders that they really need to act now.
I think we need a Churchill. I recently watched a movie 'The Darkest Hour' about the true story of when Churchill was begrudgingly made British Prime Minister. I don't think people especially here in Australia realise how close Britain came to allowing weak (cowardly) politicians to surrender their country to Hitler without firing a shot. If it had not been for Churchill and King George V1 the British Parliament would have brokered a deal via Mussolini to surrender (peacefully) !! I also watched a 4 part miniseries on Churchills life which was fascinating and gave me great respect for him where previously I did not have much due to his decision to abandon 2000 Australian soldiers on Crete to be captured by the Nazis. Now I realise that in war you can't save everyone.
William Dean
As a Father and Grandfather I find it very concerning about what may happen to those generations of people. Maybe I am lucky to have lived most of my life in the good times.
I find it very difficult to discuss any of David's points with just about anybody. I tend to think successive governments have made life so
difficult for many that there is no interest in the future.
Australia has no refineries, no reliable power supply, regulations that stop most productive development, woke people, and submarines due in thirty years. I could go on, but it is so depressing. We only have 14 days or such of available diesel and petrol, what happens if we get blockaded? It's almost like our politicians are in China's pockets, much like maybe Trump with Putin.
I would love to see you initiate discussions about how we may cope with the future if it evolves as David suggests.
Personally, I would like us to have a ring of potent drones and short range aircraft suitably armed to make us as difficult a place to invade as possible.
Interviews with people such as Pauline Hanson, Clive Palmer, Barnaby Joice etc would be interesting. We need to highlight the government inaction and gaslitting is going to cost this nation greatly.
Thanks for everything, sorry about the rant but all I want is a good future for my kids and grandkids.
Gary Thomas
Wow! What a cracking listen to you and David, Catherine.
I'm not sure if you are familiar with geopolitics researcher Peter Zeihan, The Russian Reach: PETER ZEIHAN but while I don't simply swallow everything someone says, I do find him an interesting follow.
This 20 min video is probably the most thought-provoking one I've watched so far. He is coming to the conclusion that Trump is helping the Russians and breaks down what is going on in the White House clean out of various government departments.
The first minute is about his appeal to the medshare charity.
Graham Inverson
I listened to your excellent interview with David Murrin today.
I poured a big glass of wine, then listened to it all again.
In this interview, it seemed to me that he had shifted from warning of what might be ahead, to stating what will certainly come now that we have a tyrant and traitor in the White House.
It is truly so very sad to see what the American people have allowed to pass. The good and decent people stayed silent when they should have stepped up.
After all the anxiety of the Cold War that eventually ended, we now have a US President who is siding with the traditional enemy of the West.
Murrin's explanations, including historical precedents, are wonderful in helping us understand why this disruption of the world order is happening at this time in history.
But of course this information can't inform us of a solution.
Who in this country can help us now? And is there time for any leader to make a difference? It doesn't sound like it to me.
My moderate investments are in shares, not property. I got the impression that Murrin sees the recent big slide in the market as a precursor to conflict.
Like others, I'm now unsure how to protect myself financially. Stay in banks? Go to cash now?
I am still focused on the land cycle that you have helped me understand, which in turn will also influence the share market.
What else can we do?
Catherine, you were very kind to arrange that interview so quickly, and David Murrin was very generous with his time.
Thank you so much. I look forward to your next report.
Ann O'Leary
My god. What an incredible chat with Murrin WOW God I wish I could hear his thoughts on the esoteric quantum stuff. Right up my alley!!! Scary times ahead.
Luke Cashmore - (not a relative :) )
Hi Catherine
Another great interview with Murrin. His analysis has become increasingly scary, especially for Australia. We might be safer in Tel Aviv!
Kind Regards
Richard
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