Arkite Alerts Archive

Dear Arkite,

Catherine Cashmore, of Cycles, Trends & Forecasts, invited me back for a Q&A session, which you can watch here:

"As promised, I put your questions to David Murrin last week in our second interview for Cycles, Trends & Forecasts. He was delighted to get such an enthusiastic response, and I think you’ll find the content extremely interesting. We discussed, in brief, some events that have taken place in recent weeks — including the discovery of Chinese spy balloons over the USA. We then got straight to your questions."

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Watch Now

Dear Arkite,

My latest interview is available to watch, where I talk to Adz about the theories behind Breaking The Code Of History, Churchill, quantum mechanics, Chinese philosophy, empires, parenting, Admiral Nelson, wokeism, 9/11, linear/lateral thinking, WWI, WWII, WWIII, Brexit, Roswell, Reagan, Trump, Obama and more!

"Global Forecaster David Murrin talks to Adz about the truth; how he is able to successfully predict EVERY SINGLE election result, pandemic or world war without fail."

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Dear Arkite,

My latest interview for Southbank Investment Research is available to watch now, where I discuss the energy crisis and WW3:

"Global forecaster David Murrin simply wasn’t interested in discussing his latest energy crisis predictions. Even if they’d just been vindicated, again. Instead, he kept on circling back to one single issue: why World War III could be imminent. I’m sure that sounds fantastical and not particularly relevant to investors. That is why I had intended to interview David about energy markets instead. But, as you’ll see in this video, we are hurtling down the road of escalation towards something that is predictable and crucial for investors to understand…"

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Watch the interview in full

Dear Arkite,

My interview with Catherine Cashmore, of Land Cycle Investor, is available to watch now. I chat about what I see ahead in terms of the potential of a third world war, my books Breaking The Code Of History, Lions Led By Lions, Red Lightning, Australia's dependency on exports to China and where I think we should hide and store our cash at the peak of the Kondratiev wave. 

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Dear Arkite,

Here's my latest interview with North Star Bad Charts covering global bifurcation, Russia and China's threat to the west, inflation, Germany's weakness and empire cycles.

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Dear Arkite,

I continue my conversation on Palisades Gold Radio by discussing which commodities will be highly strategic. I believe all the metals are set to take off along with oil.

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"David discusses the role of commodities in the conflicts of the world and how governments should move towards a hybrid market command system in order to secure essential resources and protect their economies. He also talks about the collapse of real wealth due to inflationary dynamics and asset price depreciation, as well as the devaluation of the dollar due to the money printing of central banks. He argues that the only lever central banks have to fight inflation is to raise rates, but this could have a crushing effect on markets and people's wealth.

David discusses various geopolitical themes to watch for in the coming year, such as the Taiwan conflict, the Biden presidency, and inflation. David predicts that China may make a move soon and that the US, Japan, and South Korea would be the targets of a possible preemptive strike. He believes that Russia does not have the ability to mount an effective offensive in Ukraine and the Allies in NATO are prepared to back a Ukrainian victory. David also talks about the importance of being prepared for surprises and adapting to changing conditions. Finally, he reflects on the human desire to fight, noting that warfare can bring people together for a common cause."

0:00 - Intro
0:24 - Strategic Commodities
3:49 - China & Supply Chains
7:14 - Real Wealth Collapse
9:05 - Dollar & Devaluation
11:50 - Inflation Path & Rates
14:37 - Gold the Anti-Entropic
19:04 - Metals & Mining Stocks
23:02 - Geopolitical Themes
29:40 - Change & Perspective
37:03 - Wrap Up

Listen now

Dear Arkite,

My interview on the Independent Research Forum (IRF) podcast, back in April of last year, covers a lot of interesting topics relevant to the state of markets and geopolitics today.

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David Osman of the IRF is joined by David Murrin, the Founder of Global Forecaster who is renowned for the development of unique and effective behavioural models, which when combined with a geopolitical overlay have a most impressive track record at predicting financial markets. David has also authored the highly acclaimed book, Breaking The Code of History, which has striking parallels with the work of Ray Dalio. 

David discusses the importance of the Kondratiev Wave commodity super-cycle on the outlook for inflation and other financial markets. He explains the implications of the K Wave for his “Five Stages of Empire” model and the dramatic ramifications, including the growing risks of a World War in the next five years as empires collide. 

He believes we have entered the doomsday bubble with the stock market peaking in November last year and now on a rapidly accelerating downward spiral with inflation out of control and the Fed out of levers to fight back. Meanwhile expect Putin to take over Ukraine and move towards occupying a NATO country whilst China will go for Taiwan and South Korea. The world is entering a key juncture, investors should be prepared for the worst!

Listen Now

Dear Arkite,

My interview on the Palisades Gold Radio podcast is out and can be viewed online:

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Tom Bodrovics interviews global forecaster and author David Murrin on the topic of the road to war being peppered with polarization. Murrin explains that the human strategy for survival is through social structures, and that wars between a weaker system and a rising system are necessary to create a better outcome. He also explains that war is regulated by the Kondratiev cycle which takes place every 56 years. He then talks about how China is seen as the primary polarizer, with America as the secondary polarizer. He then moves on to discussing Germany and how it has not yet responded with secondary polarization. He believes that Germany's reunification with East Germany was a reverse takeover, and that Germany has been subverted by Putin. Murrin then talks about the UK's response to Russia, and how misguided it is to not be increasing defense spending while at war with Russia. He says that the UK needs to be spending 5% of its budget on defense until the threat of China and Russia is abated.

David discusses the importance of lateral thinking, particularly in times of war. He posits that dyslexia and lateral thinking are key qualities that can provide game-winning strategies and are underutilized in the Western world. He explains the concepts of hunter-gatherers and agrarianism, pointing out that when the Western world is in decline, there is a disproportionate number of linear leaders who aren't able to adapt. He then moves on to discuss his five stages of empire model, which is a construct to explain human social systems, and the Kondratiev cycle. Central banks have been unable to predict and manage inflation due to their linear thinking. He argues that the current wave of inflation is likely to lead to further escalation of wars and that China's need for commodities will drive its agenda.

Time Stamp References:

0:00 - Introduction
0:37 - Polarization & War
6:07 - Germany's Response
15:30 - Political Oscillations
16:53 - Stages of (Empire) Decline
27:46 - Disordered Thinkers
35:49 - Commodity Cycles

Talking Points From This Episode

• David Murrin discusses the Kondratiev cycle, which takes place every 56 years and regulates war.
• According to Murrin, dyslexia and lateral thinking are key qualities that can provide game-winning strategies and are underutilized in the Western world.
• Murrin explains how war is often linked to commodities and how central banks have been unable to predict and manage inflation due to linear thinking.

Watch part 1 now

Dear Arkite,

You can now listen to my latest interview on the State Of The Markets podcast titled 'This asset could double in 2023!' hosted by Paul Rodriguez of https://ThinkTrading.com and Tim Price of https://Pricevaluepartners.com. I discuss my call of the NASDAQ high last year, the crash, Bitcoin, Gold and commodities safe haven, the Russian invasion and its oil/gas constriction and its effect on inflation, China.

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Listen to my latest interview

Dear Arkite,

We predict the future path of global geopolitics and markets, much like a weather forecaster predicts the weather. Real-time, ever-changing.

The application of our unique collective behavioural models, based on complex human systems, provides high-probability predictions.

We predict trends, reversals, events, and outcomes that others might not anticipate or see. 

We then apply adaptive, strategic lateral thinking to navigate and maximize your success and profitability, allowing us to support and empower you. 

We have an outstanding long-term track record with perspective and applied knowledge second to none.

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Our Predictions

Below is a selection of our predictions dating back to 2003:

• 2003 Predicted that America had moved into decline, the fifth and final stage of empire as of 9/11: a prediction which was first made public on CNBC in March and repeated during March–December 2010.

• 2007 Predicted that Obama would win the 2008 election and then, in 2011, that he would be re-elected in 2012. That his election in 2008 would confirm America’s decline, based on the historic point where the underclasses rose to power through the demographic significance of the non-White vote.

• 2008 On the day of Obama’s election success, when his popularity was running high, we made the prediction that Obama would go down as one of the worst Presidents in history. As with all other ground-breaking leaders elected from the underclass, who always focused on internal divisions and failed to maintain the boundaries of the empire, presiding over a precipitous collapse that then encouraged enemies to gather at the gates.

• 2009 Our predictions of American decline were affirmed and detailed in Breaking The Code Of History (BTCH).

• 2011 Predicted the accelerating Chinese US arms race.

• 2014 We predicted that the next US President would be a Republican, so whoever was the Republican party nomination would be President.

• 2015 Predicted that the path to the absolute power of President Xi is similar to Mao, as is his commitment to making China a superpower.

• 2016 Predicted the increasing US tension with North Korea as China manipulates the situation to its advantage.

• 2016 Predicted that a trade war with China was an imminent certainty.

• 2018 Predicted that Russia would undergo economic contraction into the B wave of the K cycle low in late 2019, which should be used by the West to make a rapprochement with Putin. Otherwise in the next commodity inflation cycle into 2025, Russia would become very wealthy and increasingly belligerent towards the West. Western response to Putin’s belligerence would then push Russia into the arms of an alliance with China with deadly consequences for the West.

• 2020 (March) Predicted that Russia would undergo a wave of major civil unrest within 12 months that could unseat Putin.This indeed came to pass, but he held onto his power.

• 2020 (5th Jan) Predicted that the Wuhan pandemic would spread around the world.

• 2020 (March) Predicted that SARS-2 was a completed bio-weapon that had been released by Xi, to regain the initiative that had been lost during the US-Chinese trade war.

• 2021 (Dec) That Putin would invade Ukraine if his demands were not met

View our predictions in full

Feedback

"I have worked through your well-written and disturbing book “Breaking the Code of History”. I am in broad agreement with what you have written and think the book makes a great contribution towards understanding the past and the present better, thus laying a sound foundation for preparing for the future."
Posted by Former President FW de Klerk

"I don’t know enough about charting to make much of it myself, but I’ve seen enough to recognize the repetitive nature of market-driven behaviour. Market patterns do repeat and are therefore worth paying attention to. For instance, for a superb overview, take a look at David Murrin’s website. His global forecasts and commentary is worth a sign up to run through his chart-supported outlook and reading of the underlying forces at play."
Bill Blain - Morning Porridge and Shard Capital

"I am pleased to add some brief comments concerning David’s remarkable output via his regular and frequent Murrinations postings and other pieces covering inter alia the First World War, Covid and the Chinese question and a one man UK defence Review. Further whilst producing this prodigious output of facts, information and observations David somehow manages and advises on global investment strategy.

It is David’s deep study and knowledge of history that informs many of his views and judgements on geopolitical issues of the day and in the future. I would strongly advise more people to read David’s works. Frankly I would sleep easier if I could be confident that senior politicians and the MOD’s top brass from all services were among David Murrin’s readership. You may not be sympathetic to every view expressed but it is a learning experience to consider them."
Jonathan Perry - Chartered Accountant, 22-year Merchant Banker, Chairman of a PLC for 15 years until retirement

"David uses historical analysis to predict likely future developments. While many try to predict the future by looking merely at economic data and looking at the recent past, David goes back centuries, tracking the ascent and descent of empires, enabling him to spot big-picture trends and secular developments that many others fail to see. As a historian myself, I am well aware that many fellow economists and analysts lack this critical ability, despite it being a well-known fact that those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
Anna Rosenberg - Partner, Head of Europe and UK I Signum Global

View our testimonials in full

Global Forecaster - Your Essential Advisor

Global Forecaster was founded to help our clients navigate an exceptionally challenging decade ahead. A prediction based on the simultaneous confluence of a series of geopolitical events – accurately predicted in our book Breaking the Code of History 15 years ago, where humanity will face a decisive moment of catastrophe or consciousness – is now upon us. By applying cycles within history using our unique Five Stages of Empire Model, we can locate the position of any nation in the present day and then predict its behaviour across various domains and timeframes. 

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